2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[lfromnj]

Nice job rescuing the donors in Dallas.

[Badger]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c8bc548-612f-4f68-9789-961c6f5f335c
Here is a good starting point for Texas redistricting. To be clear, I do not support this map it is too risky but this is the maximum Republicans could draw and still have hold up in court. The current Voting Rights Act seats are maintained but no additional democrat-leaning seats are drawn. Fletcher and Aldred's seats are cut up and made safe R.  I also found a way to make TX-23 lean a lot more Republican without making it any less Hispanic.  I removed a lot of the San Antonio suburbs, and included more rural whites and West Texas conservative Hispanics. Now the district went for Trump by 6 points, likely for Cruz as well. I believe it would hold up in court, since the current one did and this district is no less Hispanic. 69% total and 62% citizen VAP.  Another crucial change I made is sending the fajita strips into Austin instead of rural white areas.  They are all 82-83% Hispanic, so shouldn't count as packs, that are Hispanic enough so Austin white libs won't control the primaries.  I also increased the Hispanic percentage and Lloyd Doggett's seat so it should actually perform as a vra seat.  Overall I tried to get most Republican seats to around Trump+25.  My Waco based seat Trump+13, but that should be pretty safe given that the district does not include any suburbs.  It actually trended slightly red from 2008.  The remainder of the Republican seats range from Trump+20 to 30.  Also, suburban-rural combos should hold up better over the decade.  This map is 27R-1LR-11D. 

If I were the Texas Republicans, I'd make it 24R-1LR-14D, with the additional vote sinks in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.  If you do that, you can get the suburban Trump districts to Trump+30, and have more minority seats, which helps the map survive court challenges.

This map just made me throw up in my mouth.

[S019]

I drew a 25-14 map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/8b348bcc-99ee-45b9-bae2-8e708f147019, the only GOP seats where Clinton broke 40% were TX-02 (where she got 40.4%) (Crenshaw), TX-03 (where she got 40.5%) (Van Taylor), and TX-24 (where she got 41.6%) (probably Valenzuela is the incumbent, but she'll have little chance here in a Biden midterm). This map cedes the 7th (which now also takes in the Dem parts of Fort Bend, as well, as downtown Houston) and the 32nd (which becomes the new Dallas Hispanic seat as Veasey's 33rd is pushed almost entirely into Fort Worth), and the 37th (a New Democratic Austin sink, that becomes Wendy Davis' likely seat, if she wins the 21st this fall). The 3rd (54.2%) and 24th (53.3%) are also the only GOP seats where Trump didn't break 55%, as Van Taylor takes in a lot of the Democratic parts of northern Dallas County, which were previously in Allred's seat, he could be vulnerable in a wave, but at the very worst for Republicans (i.e. a huge Democratic wave) , this is a 22-17 map. On the other hand, the 23rd now becomes very vulnerable, having only voted for Clinton by less than a point, and becomes a plausible pickup in a GOP wave, the 35th(56.4%) and 15th (59.4%) are the only other Dem seats, where Clinton got under 60% of the vote, but Trump got under 40% in both seats, so they're safely Democratic. So, in a GOP wave, this could become a 26-13 map. Overall, this map, to me, does a really good job of packing Democrats and I think it's an effective gerrymander, It also has a competitiveness rating of 6 on the analytics, which indicates there aren't many swing seats, which is true, as there are really four possibly competitive seats (TX-02 (this one is a real stretch), TX-03, TX-23, and TX-24), and of the three most competitive seats (TX-03, TX-23, and TX-24), the one that was the closest in 2016 is a Democratic seat, and the more vulnerable of the two GOP seats will likely have a Democratic incumbent when these maps are drawn.

Houston:



Dallas:



Austin/San Antonio

[I’m not Stu]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c8bc548-612f-4f68-9789-961c6f5f335c
Here is a good starting point for Texas redistricting. To be clear, I do not support this map it is too risky but this is the maximum Republicans could draw and still have hold up in court. The current Voting Rights Act seats are maintained but no additional democrat-leaning seats are drawn. Fletcher and Aldred's seats are cut up and made safe R.  I also found a way to make TX-23 lean a lot more Republican without making it any less Hispanic.  I removed a lot of the San Antonio suburbs, and included more rural whites and West Texas conservative Hispanics. Now the district went for Trump by 6 points, likely for Cruz as well. I believe it would hold up in court, since the current one did and this district is no less Hispanic. 69% total and 62% citizen VAP.  Another crucial change I made is sending the fajita strips into Austin instead of rural white areas.  They are all 82-83% Hispanic, so shouldn't count as packs, that are Hispanic enough so Austin white libs won't control the primaries.  I also increased the Hispanic percentage and Lloyd Doggett's seat so it should actually perform as a vra seat.  Overall I tried to get most Republican seats to around Trump+25.  My Waco based seat Trump+13, but that should be pretty safe given that the district does not include any suburbs.  It actually trended slightly red from 2008.  The remainder of the Republican seats range from Trump+20 to 30.  Also, suburban-rural combos should hold up better over the decade.  This map is 27R-1LR-11D. 

If I were the Texas Republicans, I'd make it 24R-1LR-14D, with the additional vote sinks in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.  If you do that, you can get the suburban Trump districts to Trump+30, and have more minority seats, which helps the map survive court challenges.

Is that even legal?

[S019]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c8bc548-612f-4f68-9789-961c6f5f335c
Here is a good starting point for Texas redistricting. To be clear, I do not support this map it is too risky but this is the maximum Republicans could draw and still have hold up in court. The current Voting Rights Act seats are maintained but no additional democrat-leaning seats are drawn. Fletcher and Aldred's seats are cut up and made safe R.  I also found a way to make TX-23 lean a lot more Republican without making it any less Hispanic.  I removed a lot of the San Antonio suburbs, and included more rural whites and West Texas conservative Hispanics. Now the district went for Trump by 6 points, likely for Cruz as well. I believe it would hold up in court, since the current one did and this district is no less Hispanic. 69% total and 62% citizen VAP.  Another crucial change I made is sending the fajita strips into Austin instead of rural white areas.  They are all 82-83% Hispanic, so shouldn't count as packs, that are Hispanic enough so Austin white libs won't control the primaries.  I also increased the Hispanic percentage and Lloyd Doggett's seat so it should actually perform as a vra seat.  Overall I tried to get most Republican seats to around Trump+25.  My Waco based seat Trump+13, but that should be pretty safe given that the district does not include any suburbs.  It actually trended slightly red from 2008.  The remainder of the Republican seats range from Trump+20 to 30.  Also, suburban-rural combos should hold up better over the decade.  This map is 27R-1LR-11D.  

If I were the Texas Republicans, I'd make it 24R-1LR-14D, with the additional vote sinks in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.  If you do that, you can get the suburban Trump districts to Trump+30, and have more minority seats, which helps the map survive court challenges.

Is that even legal?

I don't think so, given that there really should be 4 majority-minority seats between Harris and Fort Bend counties. Given such a seat would come naturally and even exists in the current map, in the form of TX-22, it's easy to argue that minority votes will split and diluted too much in this map. Even putting that aside, this map is dead on arrival, since there is no consideration for incumbent residencies. Also taking the fajitas into Austin is probably a non starter and there's no good reason to do that. There are also some contiguity issues here that need to be fixed.

[I’m not Stu]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c8bc548-612f-4f68-9789-961c6f5f335c
Here is a good starting point for Texas redistricting. To be clear, I do not support this map it is too risky but this is the maximum Republicans could draw and still have hold up in court. The current Voting Rights Act seats are maintained but no additional democrat-leaning seats are drawn. Fletcher and Aldred's seats are cut up and made safe R.  I also found a way to make TX-23 lean a lot more Republican without making it any less Hispanic.  I removed a lot of the San Antonio suburbs, and included more rural whites and West Texas conservative Hispanics. Now the district went for Trump by 6 points, likely for Cruz as well. I believe it would hold up in court, since the current one did and this district is no less Hispanic. 69% total and 62% citizen VAP.  Another crucial change I made is sending the fajita strips into Austin instead of rural white areas.  They are all 82-83% Hispanic, so shouldn't count as packs, that are Hispanic enough so Austin white libs won't control the primaries.  I also increased the Hispanic percentage and Lloyd Doggett's seat so it should actually perform as a vra seat.  Overall I tried to get most Republican seats to around Trump+25.  My Waco based seat Trump+13, but that should be pretty safe given that the district does not include any suburbs.  It actually trended slightly red from 2008.  The remainder of the Republican seats range from Trump+20 to 30.  Also, suburban-rural combos should hold up better over the decade.  This map is 27R-1LR-11D.  

If I were the Texas Republicans, I'd make it 24R-1LR-14D, with the additional vote sinks in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.  If you do that, you can get the suburban Trump districts to Trump+30, and have more minority seats, which helps the map survive court challenges.

Is that even legal?

I don't think so, given that there really should be 4 majority-minority seats between Harris and Fort Bend counties. Given such a seat would come naturally and even exists in the current map, in the form of TX-22, it's easy to argue that minority votes will split and diluted too much in this map. Even putting that aside, this map is dead on arrival, since there is no consideration for incumbent residencies. Also taking the fajitas into Austin is probably a non starter and there's no good reason to do that. There are also some contiguity issues here that need to be fixed.

Aren’t the fajitas on this map far less compact than the current ones? Were any minority seats turned into white ones?

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c8bc548-612f-4f68-9789-961c6f5f335c
Here is a good starting point for Texas redistricting. To be clear, I do not support this map it is too risky but this is the maximum Republicans could draw and still have hold up in court. The current Voting Rights Act seats are maintained but no additional democrat-leaning seats are drawn. Fletcher and Aldred's seats are cut up and made safe R.  I also found a way to make TX-23 lean a lot more Republican without making it any less Hispanic.  I removed a lot of the San Antonio suburbs, and included more rural whites and West Texas conservative Hispanics. Now the district went for Trump by 6 points, likely for Cruz as well. I believe it would hold up in court, since the current one did and this district is no less Hispanic. 69% total and 62% citizen VAP.  Another crucial change I made is sending the fajita strips into Austin instead of rural white areas.  They are all 82-83% Hispanic, so shouldn't count as packs, that are Hispanic enough so Austin white libs won't control the primaries.  I also increased the Hispanic percentage and Lloyd Doggett's seat so it should actually perform as a vra seat.  Overall I tried to get most Republican seats to around Trump+25.  My Waco based seat Trump+13, but that should be pretty safe given that the district does not include any suburbs.  It actually trended slightly red from 2008.  The remainder of the Republican seats range from Trump+20 to 30.  Also, suburban-rural combos should hold up better over the decade.  This map is 27R-1LR-11D.  

If I were the Texas Republicans, I'd make it 24R-1LR-14D, with the additional vote sinks in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.  If you do that, you can get the suburban Trump districts to Trump+30, and have more minority seats, which helps the map survive court challenges.

Is that even legal?

I don't think so, given that there really should be 4 majority-minority seats between Harris and Fort Bend counties. Given such a seat would come naturally and even exists in the current map, in the form of TX-22, it's easy to argue that minority votes will split and diluted too much in this map. Even putting that aside, this map is dead on arrival, since there is no consideration for incumbent residencies. Also taking the fajitas into Austin is probably a non starter and there's no good reason to do that. There are also some contiguity issues here that need to be fixed.

Also these "Spiral" maps with bacon-strip districts sprawling all over the place are posted online a lot but they never become a reality in any state.   There are other factors at play in map drawing than just partisanship.

[I’m not Stu]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c8bc548-612f-4f68-9789-961c6f5f335c
Here is a good starting point for Texas redistricting. To be clear, I do not support this map it is too risky but this is the maximum Republicans could draw and still have hold up in court. The current Voting Rights Act seats are maintained but no additional democrat-leaning seats are drawn. Fletcher and Aldred's seats are cut up and made safe R.  I also found a way to make TX-23 lean a lot more Republican without making it any less Hispanic.  I removed a lot of the San Antonio suburbs, and included more rural whites and West Texas conservative Hispanics. Now the district went for Trump by 6 points, likely for Cruz as well. I believe it would hold up in court, since the current one did and this district is no less Hispanic. 69% total and 62% citizen VAP.  Another crucial change I made is sending the fajita strips into Austin instead of rural white areas.  They are all 82-83% Hispanic, so shouldn't count as packs, that are Hispanic enough so Austin white libs won't control the primaries.  I also increased the Hispanic percentage and Lloyd Doggett's seat so it should actually perform as a vra seat.  Overall I tried to get most Republican seats to around Trump+25.  My Waco based seat Trump+13, but that should be pretty safe given that the district does not include any suburbs.  It actually trended slightly red from 2008.  The remainder of the Republican seats range from Trump+20 to 30.  Also, suburban-rural combos should hold up better over the decade.  This map is 27R-1LR-11D.  

If I were the Texas Republicans, I'd make it 24R-1LR-14D, with the additional vote sinks in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.  If you do that, you can get the suburban Trump districts to Trump+30, and have more minority seats, which helps the map survive court challenges.

Is that even legal?

I don't think so, given that there really should be 4 majority-minority seats between Harris and Fort Bend counties. Given such a seat would come naturally and even exists in the current map, in the form of TX-22, it's easy to argue that minority votes will split and diluted too much in this map. Even putting that aside, this map is dead on arrival, since there is no consideration for incumbent residencies. Also taking the fajitas into Austin is probably a non starter and there's no good reason to do that. There are also some contiguity issues here that need to be fixed.

Also these "Spiral" maps with bacon-strip districts sprawling all over the place are posted online a lot but they never become a reality in any state.   There are other factors at play in map drawing than just partisanship.

This 18D-0R Illinois map is legal. It has the 3 AA districts and 1 Hispanic district.

https://twitter.com/BadElectionMaps/status/1212909359572881408

[Nyvin]

Also these "Spiral" maps with bacon-strip districts sprawling all over the place are posted online a lot but they never become a reality in any state.   There are other factors at play in map drawing than just partisanship.

This 18D-0R Illinois map is legal. It has the 3 AA districts and 1 Hispanic district.

https://twitter.com/BadElectionMaps/status/1212909359572881408

legal =/= become reality.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c8bc548-612f-4f68-9789-961c6f5f335c
Here is a good starting point for Texas redistricting. To be clear, I do not support this map it is too risky but this is the maximum Republicans could draw and still have hold up in court. The current Voting Rights Act seats are maintained but no additional democrat-leaning seats are drawn. Fletcher and Aldred's seats are cut up and made safe R.  I also found a way to make TX-23 lean a lot more Republican without making it any less Hispanic.  I removed a lot of the San Antonio suburbs, and included more rural whites and West Texas conservative Hispanics. Now the district went for Trump by 6 points, likely for Cruz as well. I believe it would hold up in court, since the current one did and this district is no less Hispanic. 69% total and 62% citizen VAP.  Another crucial change I made is sending the fajita strips into Austin instead of rural white areas.  They are all 82-83% Hispanic, so shouldn't count as packs, that are Hispanic enough so Austin white libs won't control the primaries.  I also increased the Hispanic percentage and Lloyd Doggett's seat so it should actually perform as a vra seat.  Overall I tried to get most Republican seats to around Trump+25.  My Waco based seat Trump+13, but that should be pretty safe given that the district does not include any suburbs.  It actually trended slightly red from 2008.  The remainder of the Republican seats range from Trump+20 to 30.  Also, suburban-rural combos should hold up better over the decade.  This map is 27R-1LR-11D.  

If I were the Texas Republicans, I'd make it 24R-1LR-14D, with the additional vote sinks in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.  If you do that, you can get the suburban Trump districts to Trump+30, and have more minority seats, which helps the map survive court challenges.

Is that even legal?

I don't think so, given that there really should be 4 majority-minority seats between Harris and Fort Bend counties. Given such a seat would come naturally and even exists in the current map, in the form of TX-22, it's easy to argue that minority votes will split and diluted too much in this map. Even putting that aside, this map is dead on arrival, since there is no consideration for incumbent residencies. Also taking the fajitas into Austin is probably a non starter and there's no good reason to do that. There are also some contiguity issues here that need to be fixed.

Austin fajitas make sense, mine have a higher cvap than the old one that was struck down.  unless they try to eliminate the strips and fight in court, this configuration makes the most sense.  Also shores up Austin suburban seats

[I’m not Stu]

legal =/= become reality.

I know it will not become reality, but it is legal. Are Idaho Conservative's maps at least legal?

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c8bc548-612f-4f68-9789-961c6f5f335c
Here is a good starting point for Texas redistricting. To be clear, I do not support this map it is too risky but this is the maximum Republicans could draw and still have hold up in court. The current Voting Rights Act seats are maintained but no additional democrat-leaning seats are drawn. Fletcher and Aldred's seats are cut up and made safe R.  I also found a way to make TX-23 lean a lot more Republican without making it any less Hispanic.  I removed a lot of the San Antonio suburbs, and included more rural whites and West Texas conservative Hispanics. Now the district went for Trump by 6 points, likely for Cruz as well. I believe it would hold up in court, since the current one did and this district is no less Hispanic. 69% total and 62% citizen VAP.  Another crucial change I made is sending the fajita strips into Austin instead of rural white areas.  They are all 82-83% Hispanic, so shouldn't count as packs, that are Hispanic enough so Austin white libs won't control the primaries.  I also increased the Hispanic percentage and Lloyd Doggett's seat so it should actually perform as a vra seat.  Overall I tried to get most Republican seats to around Trump+25.  My Waco based seat Trump+13, but that should be pretty safe given that the district does not include any suburbs.  It actually trended slightly red from 2008.  The remainder of the Republican seats range from Trump+20 to 30.  Also, suburban-rural combos should hold up better over the decade.  This map is 27R-1LR-11D.  

If I were the Texas Republicans, I'd make it 24R-1LR-14D, with the additional vote sinks in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.  If you do that, you can get the suburban Trump districts to Trump+30, and have more minority seats, which helps the map survive court challenges.

Is that even legal?

I don't think so, given that there really should be 4 majority-minority seats between Harris and Fort Bend counties. Given such a seat would come naturally and even exists in the current map, in the form of TX-22, it's easy to argue that minority votes will split and diluted too much in this map. Even putting that aside, this map is dead on arrival, since there is no consideration for incumbent residencies. Also taking the fajitas into Austin is probably a non starter and there's no good reason to do that. There are also some contiguity issues here that need to be fixed.

Also these "Spiral" maps with bacon-strip districts sprawling all over the place are posted online a lot but they never become a reality in any state.   There are other factors at play in map drawing than just partisanship.

Did you even read what I wrote?  I didn't draw this map to be realistic, I drew the maximum gerrymander to show it is possible.  It would be smart to add 3 additional vote sinks, in Austin, Houston, and DFW.

[I’m not Stu]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c8bc548-612f-4f68-9789-961c6f5f335c
Here is a good starting point for Texas redistricting. To be clear, I do not support this map it is too risky but this is the maximum Republicans could draw and still have hold up in court. The current Voting Rights Act seats are maintained but no additional democrat-leaning seats are drawn. Fletcher and Aldred's seats are cut up and made safe R.  I also found a way to make TX-23 lean a lot more Republican without making it any less Hispanic.  I removed a lot of the San Antonio suburbs, and included more rural whites and West Texas conservative Hispanics. Now the district went for Trump by 6 points, likely for Cruz as well. I believe it would hold up in court, since the current one did and this district is no less Hispanic. 69% total and 62% citizen VAP.  Another crucial change I made is sending the fajita strips into Austin instead of rural white areas.  They are all 82-83% Hispanic, so shouldn't count as packs, that are Hispanic enough so Austin white libs won't control the primaries.  I also increased the Hispanic percentage and Lloyd Doggett's seat so it should actually perform as a vra seat.  Overall I tried to get most Republican seats to around Trump+25.  My Waco based seat Trump+13, but that should be pretty safe given that the district does not include any suburbs.  It actually trended slightly red from 2008.  The remainder of the Republican seats range from Trump+20 to 30.  Also, suburban-rural combos should hold up better over the decade.  This map is 27R-1LR-11D.  

If I were the Texas Republicans, I'd make it 24R-1LR-14D, with the additional vote sinks in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.  If you do that, you can get the suburban Trump districts to Trump+30, and have more minority seats, which helps the map survive court challenges.

Is that even legal?

I don't think so, given that there really should be 4 majority-minority seats between Harris and Fort Bend counties. Given such a seat would come naturally and even exists in the current map, in the form of TX-22, it's easy to argue that minority votes will split and diluted too much in this map. Even putting that aside, this map is dead on arrival, since there is no consideration for incumbent residencies. Also taking the fajitas into Austin is probably a non starter and there's no good reason to do that. There are also some contiguity issues here that need to be fixed.

Also these "Spiral" maps with bacon-strip districts sprawling all over the place are posted online a lot but they never become a reality in any state.   There are other factors at play in map drawing than just partisanship.

Did you even read what I wrote?  I didn't draw this map to be realistic, I drew the maximum gerrymander to show it is possible.  It would be smart to add 3 additional vote sinks, in Austin, Houston, and DFW.

That isn’t even the maximum gerrymander. The maximum GOP gerrymander would still be more Democratic than that map.

[lfromnj]

He optimized the map to have 99% safety and  then maximized the seats.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c8bc548-612f-4f68-9789-961c6f5f335c
Here is a good starting point for Texas redistricting. To be clear, I do not support this map it is too risky but this is the maximum Republicans could draw and still have hold up in court. The current Voting Rights Act seats are maintained but no additional democrat-leaning seats are drawn. Fletcher and Aldred's seats are cut up and made safe R.  I also found a way to make TX-23 lean a lot more Republican without making it any less Hispanic.  I removed a lot of the San Antonio suburbs, and included more rural whites and West Texas conservative Hispanics. Now the district went for Trump by 6 points, likely for Cruz as well. I believe it would hold up in court, since the current one did and this district is no less Hispanic. 69% total and 62% citizen VAP.  Another crucial change I made is sending the fajita strips into Austin instead of rural white areas.  They are all 82-83% Hispanic, so shouldn't count as packs, that are Hispanic enough so Austin white libs won't control the primaries.  I also increased the Hispanic percentage and Lloyd Doggett's seat so it should actually perform as a vra seat.  Overall I tried to get most Republican seats to around Trump+25.  My Waco based seat Trump+13, but that should be pretty safe given that the district does not include any suburbs.  It actually trended slightly red from 2008.  The remainder of the Republican seats range from Trump+20 to 30.  Also, suburban-rural combos should hold up better over the decade.  This map is 27R-1LR-11D.  

If I were the Texas Republicans, I'd make it 24R-1LR-14D, with the additional vote sinks in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.  If you do that, you can get the suburban Trump districts to Trump+30, and have more minority seats, which helps the map survive court challenges.

Is that even legal?

I don't think so, given that there really should be 4 majority-minority seats between Harris and Fort Bend counties. Given such a seat would come naturally and even exists in the current map, in the form of TX-22, it's easy to argue that minority votes will split and diluted too much in this map. Even putting that aside, this map is dead on arrival, since there is no consideration for incumbent residencies. Also taking the fajitas into Austin is probably a non starter and there's no good reason to do that. There are also some contiguity issues here that need to be fixed.

Also these "Spiral" maps with bacon-strip districts sprawling all over the place are posted online a lot but they never become a reality in any state.   There are other factors at play in map drawing than just partisanship.

Did you even read what I wrote?  I didn't draw this map to be realistic, I drew the maximum gerrymander to show it is possible.  It would be smart to add 3 additional vote sinks, in Austin, Houston, and DFW.

That isn’t even the maximum gerrymander. The maximum GOP gerrymander would still be more Democratic than that map.

Do you know what maximum means?

[I’m not Stu]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c8bc548-612f-4f68-9789-961c6f5f335c
Here is a good starting point for Texas redistricting. To be clear, I do not support this map it is too risky but this is the maximum Republicans could draw and still have hold up in court. The current Voting Rights Act seats are maintained but no additional democrat-leaning seats are drawn. Fletcher and Aldred's seats are cut up and made safe R.  I also found a way to make TX-23 lean a lot more Republican without making it any less Hispanic.  I removed a lot of the San Antonio suburbs, and included more rural whites and West Texas conservative Hispanics. Now the district went for Trump by 6 points, likely for Cruz as well. I believe it would hold up in court, since the current one did and this district is no less Hispanic. 69% total and 62% citizen VAP.  Another crucial change I made is sending the fajita strips into Austin instead of rural white areas.  They are all 82-83% Hispanic, so shouldn't count as packs, that are Hispanic enough so Austin white libs won't control the primaries.  I also increased the Hispanic percentage and Lloyd Doggett's seat so it should actually perform as a vra seat.  Overall I tried to get most Republican seats to around Trump+25.  My Waco based seat Trump+13, but that should be pretty safe given that the district does not include any suburbs.  It actually trended slightly red from 2008.  The remainder of the Republican seats range from Trump+20 to 30.  Also, suburban-rural combos should hold up better over the decade.  This map is 27R-1LR-11D.  

If I were the Texas Republicans, I'd make it 24R-1LR-14D, with the additional vote sinks in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.  If you do that, you can get the suburban Trump districts to Trump+30, and have more minority seats, which helps the map survive court challenges.

Is that even legal?

I don't think so, given that there really should be 4 majority-minority seats between Harris and Fort Bend counties. Given such a seat would come naturally and even exists in the current map, in the form of TX-22, it's easy to argue that minority votes will split and diluted too much in this map. Even putting that aside, this map is dead on arrival, since there is no consideration for incumbent residencies. Also taking the fajitas into Austin is probably a non starter and there's no good reason to do that. There are also some contiguity issues here that need to be fixed.

Also these "Spiral" maps with bacon-strip districts sprawling all over the place are posted online a lot but they never become a reality in any state.   There are other factors at play in map drawing than just partisanship.

Did you even read what I wrote?  I didn't draw this map to be realistic, I drew the maximum gerrymander to show it is possible.  It would be smart to add 3 additional vote sinks, in Austin, Houston, and DFW.

That isn’t even the maximum gerrymander. The maximum GOP gerrymander would still be more Democratic than that map.

Do you know what maximum means?

Was that meant to be the most GOP that can be possibly drawn (legal or not), or is it meant to be the most GOP map that can be drawn legally?

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1c8bc548-612f-4f68-9789-961c6f5f335c
Here is a good starting point for Texas redistricting. To be clear, I do not support this map it is too risky but this is the maximum Republicans could draw and still have hold up in court. The current Voting Rights Act seats are maintained but no additional democrat-leaning seats are drawn. Fletcher and Aldred's seats are cut up and made safe R.  I also found a way to make TX-23 lean a lot more Republican without making it any less Hispanic.  I removed a lot of the San Antonio suburbs, and included more rural whites and West Texas conservative Hispanics. Now the district went for Trump by 6 points, likely for Cruz as well. I believe it would hold up in court, since the current one did and this district is no less Hispanic. 69% total and 62% citizen VAP.  Another crucial change I made is sending the fajita strips into Austin instead of rural white areas.  They are all 82-83% Hispanic, so shouldn't count as packs, that are Hispanic enough so Austin white libs won't control the primaries.  I also increased the Hispanic percentage and Lloyd Doggett's seat so it should actually perform as a vra seat.  Overall I tried to get most Republican seats to around Trump+25.  My Waco based seat Trump+13, but that should be pretty safe given that the district does not include any suburbs.  It actually trended slightly red from 2008.  The remainder of the Republican seats range from Trump+20 to 30.  Also, suburban-rural combos should hold up better over the decade.  This map is 27R-1LR-11D.  

If I were the Texas Republicans, I'd make it 24R-1LR-14D, with the additional vote sinks in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.  If you do that, you can get the suburban Trump districts to Trump+30, and have more minority seats, which helps the map survive court challenges.

Is that even legal?

I don't think so, given that there really should be 4 majority-minority seats between Harris and Fort Bend counties. Given such a seat would come naturally and even exists in the current map, in the form of TX-22, it's easy to argue that minority votes will split and diluted too much in this map. Even putting that aside, this map is dead on arrival, since there is no consideration for incumbent residencies. Also taking the fajitas into Austin is probably a non starter and there's no good reason to do that. There are also some contiguity issues here that need to be fixed.

Also these "Spiral" maps with bacon-strip districts sprawling all over the place are posted online a lot but they never become a reality in any state.   There are other factors at play in map drawing than just partisanship.

Did you even read what I wrote?  I didn't draw this map to be realistic, I drew the maximum gerrymander to show it is possible.  It would be smart to add 3 additional vote sinks, in Austin, Houston, and DFW.

That isn’t even the maximum gerrymander. The maximum GOP gerrymander would still be more Democratic than that map.

Do you know what maximum means?

Was that meant to be the most GOP that can be possibly drawn (legal or not), or is it meant to be the most GOP map that can be drawn legally?

Legally.  I didn't eliminate any minority seats.  That's the criteria I used for legality.  In reality, another minority seat or 2 should be added to pacify the courts, make the map cleaner, and gop incumbents safer.  But my map is more a mathematical excersise with the current minority seats kept.  This is the max gerrymander thhat COULD withstand the courts, not 100% would. 

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8a0e5a0-0a49-4654-bc22-7976aebe8804
More realistic gerrymander.  Creates 3 new performing minority seats. 
Dem seats:
1 El Paso
3 fajitas
2 San Antonio
1 Austin
4 Houston
3 DFW
25 republican seats.  Did my best to maintain character of seats, incumbent residencies, and make the, very safe. 
TX-23 is as Hispanic than the current one btw. 

[I’m not Stu]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8a0e5a0-0a49-4654-bc22-7976aebe8804
More realistic gerrymander.  Creates 3 new performing minority seats. 
Dem seats:
1 El Paso
3 fajitas
2 San Antonio
1 Austin
4 Houston
3 DFW
25 republican seats.  Did my best to maintain character of seats, incumbent residencies, and make the, very safe. 
TX-23 is as Hispanic than the current one btw. 

The real fajitas are still far more compact, and they narrowly survived court challenges.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8a0e5a0-0a49-4654-bc22-7976aebe8804
More realistic gerrymander.  Creates 3 new performing minority seats. 
Dem seats:
1 El Paso
3 fajitas
2 San Antonio
1 Austin
4 Houston
3 DFW
25 republican seats.  Did my best to maintain character of seats, incumbent residencies, and make the, very safe. 
TX-23 is as Hispanic than the current one btw. 

The real fajitas are still far more compact, and they narrowly survived court challenges.

The fajitas were only drawn because compact border districts are illegal lol.  Compact districts in that region would help the GOP.

[I’m not Stu]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8a0e5a0-0a49-4654-bc22-7976aebe8804
More realistic gerrymander.  Creates 3 new performing minority seats. 
Dem seats:
1 El Paso
3 fajitas
2 San Antonio
1 Austin
4 Houston
3 DFW
25 republican seats.  Did my best to maintain character of seats, incumbent residencies, and make the, very safe. 
TX-23 is as Hispanic than the current one btw. 

The real fajitas are still far more compact, and they narrowly survived court challenges.

The fajitas were only drawn because compact border districts are illegal lol.  Compact districts in that region would help the GOP.

The real fajitas are still more compact than that. They need to be slightly more compact.

[Idaho Conservative]

I suppose one could be sent into san antonio, 1 into Corpus Christi, and 1 into that county south of Austin.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c8a0e5a0-0a49-4654-bc22-7976aebe8804
More realistic gerrymander.  Creates 3 new performing minority seats. 
Dem seats:
1 El Paso
3 fajitas
2 San Antonio
1 Austin
4 Houston
3 DFW
25 republican seats.  Did my best to maintain character of seats, incumbent residencies, and make the, very safe. 
TX-23 is as Hispanic than the current one btw. 

The real fajitas are still far more compact, and they narrowly survived court challenges.

The fajitas were only drawn because compact border districts are illegal lol.  Compact districts in that region would help the GOP.

The real fajitas are still more compact than that. They need to be slightly more compact.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/52e45cd9-05bb-48b8-a1e2-9e9e2750d2df
Is this better?  3 compact fajitas, even more than currently.  Each a bit more hispanic than current, about 86%.  Currently the most hispanic fajita is 83.5% hispanic. 

[morgieb]

In the event that the Dems win the State House (which is very plausible given that Texas is meant to be very close this year), here's a potential neutral map I drew:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6e477c36-400d-43c2-9346-ccb9a8f8a3b5



whole state view



view of the DFW area



view of Houston



view of Austin & San Antonio

This shows just how much of a natural D gerrymander Texas can be if not cancelled out by Republicans. The map is 20 Hillary-19 Trump, and was very close to 22-17. Of course most of the 17 other seats are quite solidly Republican, but still that is impressive that in a state Trump won by 9 Dems won a majority of seats.

I didn't pay too much attention to VRA assuming it would address itself naturally anyway, but I do worry it might be illegal as there's less border seats than the current situation. So it might get thrown out because IDK if those minority-majority San Antonio seats count.

Analysis of seats:

TX-01 (blue) - based on North East Texas. 73-24 Trump/Clinton, R+25 PVI. Safe R, obviously.
TX-02 (green) -  inner North West Houston. More compact than the current seat, but the seat is a lot more Republican, being 58-38 Trump/Clinton and a R+16 PVI. Though the seat is trending D quite rapidly, the seat is still a safe one for Team R...whether that will hold throughout the decade is another question though.
TX-03 (purple) - Collin County. Very similar to TX-02 in terms of outlook. It's slightly less Republican, only being 56-38 Trump/Clinton and R+15.
TX-04 (red) - a combination of some northern DFW exurbs and rural North East Texas. Even more Republican than TX-01, being 74-22 Trump/Clinton and R+27 via PVI.
TX-05 (gold) - basically the same seat as TX-04, though this one is R+28 and to the south of Dallas rather than north. Of course remains extremely safe for Team R.
TX-06 (teal) - the impact of TX-05 becoming such a safe seat is that this one becomes a compact seat based on South East Tarrant County rather than the gerrymandered urban/rural seat that it currently is. This seat voted Hillary over Trump 49-46, and wasn't even that Republican beforehand, only having a PVI of R+2. Safe to say that this seat would elect a Democrat in the current climate, though like a lot of suburban seats this will be interesting in a midterm.
TX-07 (chocolate) - very similar seat to the current one, though it's slightly less elastic, basically being a tie in 2016 and having a PVI of R+5. Again, it'll likely vote Democrat at this point, but it'll be interesting in a potential Biden midterm.
TX-08 (slate blue) - basically the current seat, combining Montgomery County with rural areas. Like the current seat is very safely Republican, voting Trump 72-24 and being R+28 via PVI.
TX-09 (cyan) - again quite similar to the current one, being based on South Houston. Very safely Dem, voting Hillary 77-20 and D+25.
TX-10 (deep pink) - unlike the current seat that combines Houston and Austin suburbs with vast rural areas around the southern part of the Brazos Valley, this is a very safe rural seat based around the southern bits of the Brazos Valley and the Gulf of Mexico. Voted Trump 69-27 and has a PVI of R+24.
TX-11 (chartreuse) - the more urban bits of West Texas (so contains Midland and Lubbock, for example). Still a very safe Republican seat (like the current one), voting Trump 72-24 and R+27.
TX-12 (cornflower blue) - mostly exurban DFW, combining the northern suburbs of Fort Worth with more rural territory west of Tarrant County. Though the seat is trending Democrat (a PVI of R+26 but "only" Trump 70/25) it's still a very safe Republican one.
TX-13 (dark salmon) - basically the same as the current one. 79-18 Trump and R+32, so not much to talk about.
TX-14 (olive) - more obviously suburban than the current one, though still pretty similar in feel. 60-36 Trump and R+16, so still safe Republican and the Democratic trend isn't as rapid as some other Houston area seats.
TX-15 (dark orange) - kind of a replacement for TX-23, but more obviously rural and Hispanic. 66-30 Clinton and D+17, so obviously safely Democratic.
TX-16 (lime) - based on El Paso. Another safe Dem Hispanic border seat (Clinton 69-26, D+18)
TX-17 (dark slate blue) - based on Waco and the Killeen-Temple area, this one might have viability for Democrats in the future, but certainly not right now and probably not for the rest of the decade as the Dem trend here isn't as rapid as the more metro seats. Voted Trump 59-36, has a PVI of R+14.
TX-18 (yellow) - inner Houston seat, comparable to the current one. Safe D seat voting Clinton 69-26, having a PVI of D+17.
TX-19 (yellow-green) - southern bit of West Texas and the Hill Country. Nearly as safely R as TX-13, voting Trump 75/21 and a PVI of R+29.
TX-20 (pink) - a big change from the current map - instead of being a pure San Antonio seat it now expands to take in some rural counties to its east and is mostly the eastern suburbs of San Antonio. This made it vote for Trump, but only by a narrow margin - 48/47, though the PVI is slightly lower than some seats Hillary won, being R+3 which suggests that the vote here is slightly less elastic than other seats. Nevertheless, in the current climate this seat will probably send a Democrat to Congress.
TX-21 (maroon) - more compact than the current one, but still combines the western half of Austin with some rural territory and Hays County. Notably voted Hillary 48/46, and has a PVI of R+4. Again, Likely D as things stand but may not hold in a midterm.
TX-22 (sienna) - based on the urbanised areas of Fort Bend and Brazoria County, this is a classic case of suburbia trending left. Voted Hillary 53/43, and has an even PVI. Honestly this would probably stay solid even in a midterm.
TX-23 (moccassin) - changed from being a combination of San Antonio suburbs with border areas to a quasi-fajita strip seat based on SW San Antonio and rural Hispanic areas in South Texas. Heavily Hispanic, so probably closer to the current TX-20 in feel than the one made here. Naturally safe D at 63/32 Hillary and D+14 in PVI.
TX-24 (indigo) - moves from being based on rich suburbia around the airport to being based around Fort Worth. Like a lot of surburban seats flipped from Romney to Clinton, voting Clinton 50/45 and having a even PVI. Definitely Safe D in today's climate, and would be difficult for Republicans to win even in a midterm.
TX-25 (pale violet red) - moves from being an elongated strip combining Forth Worth and Austin suburbs with rural territory to being a rural seat based on north "Middle Texas". This is probably the safest seat in the entire country for Republicans, voting 79/17 Trump and having a R+33 PVI.
TX-26 (navy) - Denton County. Probably safe R for now, but like neighbouring TX-03 might not be for the entire decade. Voted 58/37 Trump and R+15 by PVI.
TX-27 (spring green) - similar seat to the current one, being based around the Gulf of Mexico and Corpus Christi. Though majority Hispanic the seat is still pretty safely Republican, voting 56/40 Trump and having a R+10 PVI, and unlike other seats with a similar Trump margin isn't even trending D.
TX-28 (plum) - mostly based on the McAllen metro area, this is a Safe D border seat (voted 68/28 Hillary and D+19 PVI)
TX-29 (orange) - majority Hispanic seat based on East Houston. Oddly this seat isn't that Democratic, only voting 59/37 for Clinton and being D+6 PVI, so might've been interesting before 2016. It wouldn't be now, though.
TX-30 (light coral) - SE Dallas, the blacker bit of Dallas. Like the current seat, is Safe D. Voted 72-25 Hillary and D+23.
TX-31 (khaki) - sheds most of its rural territory to be purely based on Williamson County and North Austin. Very similar partisan figures to TX-21, voting Hillary 47/45 and being R+4 on PVI. Again will be solid for Team D in this climate, but might not be in another one.
TX-32 (orange-red) - like the current TX-32, based on NE Dallas and southern Collin County. Voted 49/46 Hillary and has a PVI of R+4. See TX-06 for how it would vote.
TX-33 (royal blue) - SW Dallas (though part of it also extends to Tarrant County), the more Hispanic bit of Dallas. Again a Safe D seat, being 72/25 Hillary and D+21 PVI.
TX-34 (lime green) - border seat based on Brownville. Yet another Safe D seat voting 66/31 Hillary and being D+17 PVI.
TX-35 (dark orchid) - mostly Austin, though also contains some rural counties to its east. Naturally Safe D, voting 64/29 Hillary and being D+15 on PVI.
TX-36 (dodger blue) - Safe R seat based on South East Texas. Voted 69/29 Trump and a PVI of R+20.
TX-37 (dark sea green) - new seat based on NE Harris County. Like so many seats of its ilk it flipped in 2016, voting 49/47 Hillary and has a PVI of R+4. Would probably vote similarly to TX-07.
TX-38 (medium aquamarine) - new seat based on NW Dallas. Very much seems a place full of rich suburban Trump backlash, voting 52/43 Hillary but having a R+2 PVI. On those figures tricky to see it even coming back in a midterm, though it is a bit whiter than seats of a similar partisan makeup.
TX-39 (aquamarine) - new seat based on NW Bexar County. Minority-majority, but voted Trump narrowly 47/46 and has a PVI of R+6. Still it's hard to imagine a seat like this staying Republican in the current climate.

[lfromnj]

How is splitting core austin 3 ways neutral?
Even if you think that's fair it's still a complete gop court they would pass another neutral map that doesn't have that.

Also your map isnt 2018 pop so its way off. You have to estimate by 2018 not 2010 population. Also that 7/37 vertical parralel split for 2 Lean D seats doesn't look very neutral either. Also when posting a pic of a map remove the precints and put the numbers(I forget to do this too)

Also whats very possible is a narrow dem majority could be bribed by the GOP bribing AA legislators in Houston and maybe even Dallas to vote for their map instead of risking something closer to your map where you don't even have 1 clear black houston seat by CVAP.




Here's a compromise map for the Houston area where 2 black seats are preserved. (the green district is very ugly to keep Bellaire and the villages together btw) Although maybe the GOP will want to rescue those voters and put them in Crenshaws district. Black vs Hispanic parochial concerns will be quite strong especially when AA voters are over represented in Houston with 2 districts but which they will want to keep.