Is Don Bacon cooked this year?

[The Arizonan]

Congressman Don Bacon barely cracked fifty percent in 2018 and if the DCCC hadn't abandoned Kara Eastman, he would've been screwed. Do you think he loses this time?

[Mr. Smith]

Has his oratory ever been particularly raw?

[SnowLabrador]

No. He survived 2018, he can survive 2020, particularly if Kara Eastman is his opponent again.

[The Arizonan]

No. He survived 2018, he can survive 2020, particularly if Kara Eastman is his opponent again.

Why?

[brucejoel99]

If the DCCC actually tries this time, then yes.

[SnowLabrador]

No. He survived 2018, he can survive 2020, particularly if Kara Eastman is his opponent again.

Why?

The DCCC hates progressives, which is why they wouldn't help Kara Eastman after she won the primary in 2018. Plus, 2020 is shaping up to be more like D+7 than D+9. It'll be close again, but Bacon is definitely not doomed.

[Zaybay]

Is Don Bacon cooked, implying that hes either doomed or the underdog? No.

Is Don Bacon one of the frontline Rs who can easily go down in 2020? Yes.

[Mr.Phips]

I have a feeling that whatever party wins the electoral vote here will also win the House seat.

[Nyvin]

He'll be extra crispy.

But yeah,  I think this race will follow the national environment.   Bacon's not established enough to stand on his own.

[TML]

Possibly.

Eastman would have the advantage of more name recognition this year compared to two years ago (just like Marie Newman in her contest against Dan Lipinski), so don't automatically assume that Bacon would cruise to victory if he were to face Eastman again.

[Xing]

Maybe not done for, but absolutely vulnerable.

[Meatball Ron]

Possibly.

Eastman would have the advantage of more name recognition this year compared to two years ago (just like Marie Newman in her contest against Dan Lipinski), so don't automatically assume that Bacon would cruise to victory if he were to face Eastman again.

The primary (IL) / general (NE) comparison doesn't really work, though. Eastman is probably too progressive for this district. Not saying she couldn't win under any circumstances, but she'd be the underdog against Bacon whereas I think with a more suitable candidate we'd have a pure toss-up race.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

No lol. Kara Eastman lost because it's a moderate suburban district, not urban NYC, and not because the DNC "abandoned" her. He certainly could lose, but I expect him to win by 2-3.

[brucejoel99]

No lol. Kara Eastman lost because it's a moderate suburban district, not urban NYC, and not because the DNC "abandoned" her. He certainly could lose, but I expect him to win by 2-3.

No, it was legitimately the fault of the DCCC triaging her early on. This can be seen by the fact that she still did as well as any candidate could: she only lost by 2%, & pulled a higher vote share than in 2016, when the moderate incumbent - who couldn't even win the primary 2 years later - also lost.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

No lol. Kara Eastman lost because it's a moderate suburban district, not urban NYC, and not because the DNC "abandoned" her. He certainly could lose, but I expect him to win by 2-3.

No, it was legitimately the fault of the DCCC triaging her early on. This can be seen by the fact that she still did as well as any candidate could: she only lost by 2%, & pulled a higher vote share than in 2016, when the moderate incumbent - who couldn't even win the primary 2 years later - also lost.

Shouldn't have mattered. If Kendra Horn was winning by double digits in a seat 3 points to it's left without much struggle, Eastman should have been able to win with or without the DCCC

[brucejoel99]

No lol. Kara Eastman lost because it's a moderate suburban district, not urban NYC, and not because the DNC "abandoned" her. He certainly could lose, but I expect him to win by 2-3.

No, it was legitimately the fault of the DCCC triaging her early on. This can be seen by the fact that she still did as well as any candidate could: she only lost by 2%, & pulled a higher vote share than in 2016, when the moderate incumbent - who couldn't even win the primary 2 years later - also lost.

Shouldn't have mattered. If Kendra Horn was winning by double digits in a seat 3 points to it's left without much struggle, Eastman should have been able to win with or without the DCCC

Yes, because all seats are monolithic.

[Pericles]

He's not cooked, but this is a tossup race. NE-02 also has moved in the opposite direction to the national environment in the last 3 elections, so I could see it flipping to the Democrats even while there's a nationwide swing to House Republicans. With Eastman's loss, I think it was a combination of her being a bad fit for the district and the DCCC triaging her (plus Bacon does seem like a good candidate).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

He's not cooked, but this is a tossup race. NE-02 also has moved in the opposite direction to the national environment in the last 3 elections, so I could see it flipping to the Democrats even while there's a nationwide swing to House Republicans. With Eastman's loss, I think it was a combination of her being a bad fit for the district and the DCCC triaging her (plus Bacon does seem like a good candidate).