2022: Which House Democrats are vulnerable to losing a primary challenge?

[Greedo punched first]

Is Steve Lynch vulnerable? He recently became pro-choice.

As long as Brianna Wu insists on being his primary left-wing challenger, he'll probably continue winning.

Why has Lynch faced primary challenges?

He's MA's most conservative Democrat, sort of a Lipinski-lite.

How is he fairly conservative, now that he’s pro-choice (Lipinski is still pro-life)?

The pro-life aftertaste + seeking to expand charter schools, off the top of my head.

Charter school support makes sense as to why he faces primary challenges.

[Pollster]

Redistricting makes this an incredibly interesting question, as many safe D districts can become toss-ups and vice versa, either by the result of gerrymandering, population gain/loss, or happenstance from a commission. The left may become more aggressive against centrists if they are suddenly in D+10 seats.

Josh Gottheimer, Stephanie Murphy, Conor Lamb, Tom O'Halleran, Kurt Schrader, Steven Horsford, Ed Perlmutter, and Lacy Clay are some that come to mind. Some I know already have challengers of various seriousness.

We'll also probably see challengers to the usual suspects, like Steve Cohen.

I refuse to believe that he'll ever be successfully primaried.

I agree (this coming from somebody who has consulted for one of his previous challengers).

I completely forgot many of the NYC-area members who have already proved to be incredibly vulnerable. Large metro areas could certainly become hotbeds for DSA/Justice Dem primary challengers in the coming decade, in a manner similar to the way AOC/Pressley/Tlaib were elected (Omar had significantly more mainstream Dem support).

[Greedo punched first]

Redistricting makes this an incredibly interesting question, as many safe D districts can become toss-ups and vice versa, either by the result of gerrymandering, population gain/loss, or happenstance from a commission. The left may become more aggressive against centrists if they are suddenly in D+10 seats.

Josh Gottheimer, Stephanie Murphy, Conor Lamb, Tom O'Halleran, Kurt Schrader, Steven Horsford, Ed Perlmutter, and Lacy Clay are some that come to mind. Some I know already have challengers of various seriousness.

We'll also probably see challengers to the usual suspects, like Steve Cohen.

I refuse to believe that he'll ever be successfully primaried.

I agree (this coming from somebody who has consulted for one of his previous challengers).

I completely forgot many of the NYC-area members who have already proved to be incredibly vulnerable. Large metro areas could certainly become hotbeds for DSA/Justice Dem primary challengers in the coming decade, in a manner similar to the way AOC/Pressley/Tlaib were elected (Omar had significantly more mainstream Dem support).

Of major cities, why have NYC incumbents (for example, Yvette Clarke) been particularly vulnerable?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Aside from possible incumbent vs. incumbent primary fights, Rashida Tlaib*, Henry Culler (but only if he still has some of Bexar County), Yvette Clarke*, Jim Costa, and maybe Eddie Bernice Johnson.  I think Atlas vastly overestimates the ability of the far left to mount effective primary challenges (as well as the appetite for it, for that matter).

*Assuming they even win their 2020 primary

[Greedo punched first]

Aside from possible incumbent vs. incumbent primary fights, Rashida Tlaib*, Henry Culler (but only if he still has some of Bexar County), Yvette Clarke*, Jim Costa, and maybe Eddie Bernice Johnson.  I think Atlas vastly overestimates the ability of the far left to mount effective primary challenges (as well as the appetite for it, for that matter).

*Assuming they even win their 2020 primary

Costa and Cardenas are the only California Democrats that I can see facing a serious challenge.