2022: Which House Democrats are vulnerable to losing a primary challenge?

[Greedo punched first]

Other than Henry Cuellar, who almost lost; which Democrats are in danger of losing an intraparty challenge? Many incumbents face challenges, but who are actually vulnerable to losing?

[Gracile]

Depending on how redistricting shapes up, we could see some incumbent vs. incumbent primaries.

[Greedo punched first]

Since Lipinski already lost, which incumbents might be vulnerable to losing to a non-incumbent (other than Cuellar and maybe Costa)?

[Coldstream]

Juan Vargas seems to enjoy picking fights with the party’s left wing, he criticised Omar, endorses John Delaney of all people etc. Don’t know what his local party are like but it wouldn’t shock me if he was on their list.

[Greedo punched first]

Does Lou Correa or Jim Costa survive? Correa is pretty popular (he also has support from almost every major CA Democrat, and unlike Costa, gets majorities in the primary). How popular is Costa?

[gerritcole]

Langevin v cicilline

[Greedo punched first]

Maybe Tony Cardenas because of the pedophilia allegations?

[Meatball Ron]

Langevin v cicilline

I assume one of them will run for Governor (Raimondo will be term-limited)

[gerritcole]

Langevin v cicilline

I assume one of them will run for Governor (Raimondo will be term-limited)

You think langevin will leave to run for gov?

[Greedo punched first]

Mabe Sara Jacobs if she wins (she's a carpetbagger who lives in a fairly distant district)?

[Meatball Ron]

Langevin v cicilline

I assume one of them will run for Governor (Raimondo will be term-limited)

You think langevin will leave to run for gov?

Not sure. Cicilline seems like the more ambitious one - not sure if that means he's more likely to stay in House or leave for Governor, though. Langevin has seniority in the House, probably makes sense for him to be the one to stay.

[Meatball Ron]

Langevin v cicilline

I assume one of them will run for Governor (Raimondo will be term-limited)

You think langevin will leave to run for gov?

Not sure. Cicilline seems like the more ambitious one - not sure if that means he's more likely to stay in House or leave for Governor, though. Langevin has seniority in the House, probably makes sense for him to be the one to stay.

Also worth noting there are way more Dems in Cicilline’s district (D+14) than in Langevin’s (D+6 but swung heavily R in 2016). Combine that with Cicilline’s higher profile and I bet he wins in a head to head. So Langevin will probably want to avoid that. Governor feels like the easiest out but that wouldn’t be a sure thing given other statewide Dems with ambition. Maybe a lower profile role in the Biden administration. Or he could just retire; he’ll have been in Congress 20 years, though he’s pretty young.

[Pollster]

Redistricting makes this an incredibly interesting question, as many safe D districts can become toss-ups and vice versa, either by the result of gerrymandering, population gain/loss, or happenstance from a commission. The left may become more aggressive against centrists if they are suddenly in D+10 seats.

Josh Gottheimer, Stephanie Murphy, Conor Lamb, Tom O'Halleran, Kurt Schrader, Steven Horsford, Ed Perlmutter, and Lacy Clay are some that come to mind. Some I know already have challengers of various seriousness.

We'll also probably see challengers to the usual suspects, like Steve Cohen.

[brucejoel99]

Redistricting makes this an incredibly interesting question, as many safe D districts can become toss-ups and vice versa, either by the result of gerrymandering, population gain/loss, or happenstance from a commission. The left may become more aggressive against centrists if they are suddenly in D+10 seats.

Josh Gottheimer, Stephanie Murphy, Conor Lamb, Tom O'Halleran, Kurt Schrader, Steven Horsford, Ed Perlmutter, and Lacy Clay are some that come to mind. Some I know already have challengers of various seriousness.

We'll also probably see challengers to the usual suspects, like Steve Cohen.

I refuse to believe that he'll ever be successfully primaried.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Redistricting makes this an incredibly interesting question, as many safe D districts can become toss-ups and vice versa, either by the result of gerrymandering, population gain/loss, or happenstance from a commission. The left may become more aggressive against centrists if they are suddenly in D+10 seats.

Josh Gottheimer, Stephanie Murphy, Conor Lamb, Tom O'Halleran, Kurt Schrader, Steven Horsford, Ed Perlmutter, and Lacy Clay are some that come to mind. Some I know already have challengers of various seriousness.

We'll also probably see challengers to the usual suspects, like Steve Cohen.

I refuse to believe that he'll ever be successfully primaried.

[Greedo punched first]

Cohen likely wins.

[Boobs]

Possibly Lizzie Fletcher, as it's the modus operandi of the TXGOP to try to draw out white Democrats. Her district probably loses its R-leaning out suburbs in exchange for a minority-heavy vote sink, where she probably gets primaried by a black or Hispanic challenger; she doesn't have as much stature as someone like Gene Green or Lloyd Doggett, and those safe D seats rarely open up, so I expect she'll be fairly vulnerable. Amanda Edwards, possibly.

[Greedo punched first]

Is Steve Lynch vulnerable? He recently became pro-choice.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Is Steve Lynch vulnerable? He recently became pro-choice.

As long as Brianna Wu insists on being his primary left-wing challenger, he'll probably continue winning.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is Steve Lynch vulnerable? He recently became pro-choice.

As long as Brianna Wu insists on being his primary left-wing challenger, he'll probably continue winning.

Good.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yvette Clark had a pretty weak showing last time.

[Greedo punched first]

Is Steve Lynch vulnerable? He recently became pro-choice.

As long as Brianna Wu insists on being his primary left-wing challenger, he'll probably continue winning.

Why has Lynch faced primary challenges?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Is Steve Lynch vulnerable? He recently became pro-choice.

As long as Brianna Wu insists on being his primary left-wing challenger, he'll probably continue winning.

Why has Lynch faced primary challenges?

He's MA's most conservative Democrat, sort of a Lipinski-lite.

[Greedo punched first]

Is Steve Lynch vulnerable? He recently became pro-choice.

As long as Brianna Wu insists on being his primary left-wing challenger, he'll probably continue winning.

Why has Lynch faced primary challenges?

He's MA's most conservative Democrat, sort of a Lipinski-lite.

How is he fairly conservative, now that he’s pro-choice (Lipinski is still pro-life)?

[brucejoel99]

Is Steve Lynch vulnerable? He recently became pro-choice.

As long as Brianna Wu insists on being his primary left-wing challenger, he'll probably continue winning.

Why has Lynch faced primary challenges?

He's MA's most conservative Democrat, sort of a Lipinski-lite.

How is he fairly conservative, now that he’s pro-choice (Lipinski is still pro-life)?

The pro-life aftertaste + seeking to expand charter schools, off the top of my head.