2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[UncleSam]

Imagine a world where computers just drew clean beautiful lines and no one had to wonder if there was bias in the system.

Instead we do this cesspool of a system where everyone cheats then we argue about who is cheating harder. Revolting.

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1494497981554380801?cxt=HHwWgsCywd__wr0pAAA...

Reportedly, there is a narrow but plausible path to GOP legislative majorities in 2023. Honestly, New Jersey Republicans are criminally underrated as a party.

Dems should only agree to a map that shores up incumbents on both sides.

Dems should at least try to make the 8th district more Dem.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1494497981554380801?cxt=HHwWgsCywd__wr0pAAA...

Reportedly, there is a narrow but plausible path to GOP legislative majorities in 2023. Honestly, New Jersey Republicans are criminally underrated as a party.

Reported by who?

Globe: https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/legislative-deal-map-mostly-in-place-as-carchman-mediates-accord-between-two-parties/

Pushed strongly by tiebreaker Philip Carchman, Democrats and Republicans are close to finalizing a deal map that would pit two pairs of incumbents into possible Democratic primaries and give Republicans a path, albeit a challenging one, to a majority in the legislature, the New Jersey Globe has learned.

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1494497981554380801?cxt=HHwWgsCywd__wr0pAAA...

Reportedly, there is a narrow but plausible path to GOP legislative majorities in 2023. Honestly, New Jersey Republicans are criminally underrated as a party.

Reported by who?

Globe: https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/legislative-deal-map-mostly-in-place-as-carchman-mediates-accord-between-two-parties/

Pushed strongly by tiebreaker Philip Carchman, Democrats and Republicans are close to finalizing a deal map that would pit two pairs of incumbents into possible Democratic primaries and give Republicans a path, albeit a challenging one, to a majority in the legislature, the New Jersey Globe has learned.

Just read it. GOP has pickup opportunities but as usual NJ globe/Wildstein just seems to be Republican fantasy.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1494497981554380801?cxt=HHwWgsCywd__wr0pAAA...

Reportedly, there is a narrow but plausible path to GOP legislative majorities in 2023. Honestly, New Jersey Republicans are criminally underrated as a party.

New Jersey is a weird state in that it’s not democratic enough where the republicans are moderates (Vermont, Mass.) but not democratic enough to be 100% safe, leading to things like Chris Christie

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1494497981554380801?cxt=HHwWgsCywd__wr0pAAA...

Reportedly, there is a narrow but plausible path to GOP legislative majorities in 2023. Honestly, New Jersey Republicans are criminally underrated as a party.

New Jersey is a weird state in that it’s not democratic enough where the republicans are moderates (Vermont, Mass.) but not democratic enough to be 100% safe, leading to things like Chris Christie

Sounds like VA or NC on the R side.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1494497981554380801?cxt=HHwWgsCywd__wr0pAAA...

Reportedly, there is a narrow but plausible path to GOP legislative majorities in 2023. Honestly, New Jersey Republicans are criminally underrated as a party.

New Jersey is a weird state in that it’s not democratic enough where the republicans are moderates (Vermont, Mass.) but not democratic enough to be 100% safe, leading to things like Chris Christie

No, New Jersey's GOP is actually fairly moderate. There's a reason they still do well at the state level.

Compare them to Oregon and Delaware, where QAnon supporters were nominated for Senate. Or Massachusetts, where the super popular moderate Republican governor was driven into retirement because the state party chair is a MAGA nut who refused to support him.

[Sol]

Imagine a world where computers just drew clean beautiful lines and no one had to wonder if there was bias in the system.

Instead we do this cesspool of a system where everyone cheats then we argue about who is cheating harder. Revolting.

Somebody still has to program the computers.

Appeals to things like this always rub me the wrong way--the whole point of democracy is about finding the right answers through debate and argument and working hard for your side. I think it should be an even playing field--which is why I support nonpartisan commissions--but attempts to get around the fundamentally political nature of the redistricting process miss that even programs like the shortest splitline method are applying fundamentally human heuristics which will consequently have some sort of bias (i.e. in the case of shortest splitline, a bias towards odd rurban districts).

[Oryxslayer]

Apparently final leg map.

[CookieDamage]

8th district sucks. Dems needed to make it more blue. Although it's centered on an area of BurCo thats trending blue. Much of this districts populated area swung left from 2017 to 2020. Dems came extremely close to flipping the assembly districts in 2021, but it was a slightly bluer district but a really bad environment for Dems. If 2023 isn't as bad as 2021, Dems have a shot.

Also does anyone know why on Earth DRA still doesn't have 2021 gov data? I know people have it.

[Torie]

If the algorithm used is disclosed, I think computers producing maps is a good starting point. Then the humans can evaluate them. The most frustrating aspect of where we are now, is the deafening roar of partisan spin and courts gone rogue. And nobody seems to agree on the most appropriate way to measure partisan bias. What I do is ignore the partisan numbers, draw a clean map adjusted for the VRA and each group getting a reasonable share of the spoils, and then look at the partisan split. I am highly suspicious of all the complex mathematical tests of partisan bias, and just go with the Muon2 formula, which uses  an exponential rather than linear function of what percentage share of the districts a party should get based on the statewide partisan split. If the split is ballpark, I'm done. If it is not I assess how to get it more ballpark, without making the map a mess. It is a balancing test. Competitive districts are also a plus.

[Senator Incitatus]

Republicans are now calling for the congressional map to be overturned or replaced following allegations from within the Princeton Redistricting Project that Sam Wang falsified data in order to advantage the Democratic Party, manipulated the "technophobic" elderly tiebreaker John Wallace, and abused his staff:

https://newjerseyglobe.com/redistricing/princeton-university-investigating-sam-wang-for-research-misconduct-toxic-workplace-issues/

https://newjerseyglobe.com/redistricing/steinhardt-wants-n-j-redistricting-commission-to-reconvene-for-discussion-on-wang/

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/christie-wants-n-j-supreme-court-to-order-new-map/

I wouldn't take these seriously (and didn't when Republicans raised such concerns immediately after the map was released) but for the fact that they come from within Princeton and are the subject of an active Title IX investigation (which was ongoing while Wang advised Wallace). If the NJ map were overturned right after the NY map, that would be quite the double whammy for the Democratic Party.

Notable news anyway, given Wang's high profile within our little niche obsession.

[lfromnj]

Yes overall this is more likely to have impact on the NY map where Cervas's "non partisanship" can be called into question especially as one of the accusations is PA.

[Senator Incitatus]

Yes overall this is more likely to have impact on the NY map where Cervas's "non partisanship" can be called into question especially as one of the accusations is PA.

Not sure it affects the NY map. The allegations are against Wang personally not the PRP. All of the allegations come from other project members, and none implicate Cervas, who hasn't been with the project since last year.

[lfromnj]

Yes overall this is more likely to have impact on the NY map where Cervas's "non partisanship" can be called into question especially as one of the accusations is PA.

Not sure it affects the NY map. The allegations are against Wang personally not the PRP. All of the allegations come from other project members, and none implicate Cervas, who hasn't been with the project since last year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/05/01/hispanics-census-undercount-house-seats/

I mean this guy more or less co authored articles with Mr.Wang.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yes overall this is more likely to have impact on the NY map where Cervas's "non partisanship" can be called into question especially as one of the accusations is PA.

Not sure it affects the NY map. The allegations are against Wang personally not the PRP. All of the allegations come from other project members, and none implicate Cervas, who hasn't been with the project since last year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/05/01/hispanics-census-undercount-house-seats/

I mean this guy more or less co authored articles with Mr.Wang.

I was best friends with someone who got suspended from my school, hell, I even did a presentation with them!

[Devils30]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Depends upon how South Jersey holds up in 2022. If we see what happened in the gov race again they may cede NJ-02 to Rs or keep it in a simillar form to how it currently is, especially since Van Drew is still better than a lot of other possible Rs. Also, I don't think NJ-Dems would dismantle NJ-08 like that to keep Menedez happy as sad as it is.

[Tekken_Guy]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Kean could very well hold that NJ-07 in 2024.

[Devils30]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Kean could very well hold that NJ-07 in 2024.

He wouldn't even win that in 2022. It's Biden +12 and stacks Piscataway, Morristown, Plainfield into a district with rural Sussex and parts of Dem trending Morris. I believe that map would be a very effective 11-1 gerrymander.

It's a fairly clean map, 2 needs an arm into Camden county to be a double-digit Biden seat. Dems would have nothing to worry about in 12 given trends in Hunterdon, Somerset.

Pre- 2016 the Dems probably couldn't do more than 10-2 (need a NW pack) but the 2016-2020 trends in NJ are extremely favorable for Dems geography because they gained in suburbs, exurbs and only lost ground in deep blue cities, deep red Ocean (perfect for a GOP pack).

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Kean could very well hold that NJ-07 in 2024.

He wouldn't even win that in 2022. It's Biden +12 and stacks Piscataway, Morristown, Plainfield into a district with rural Sussex and parts of Dem trending Morris. I believe that map would be a very effective 11-1 gerrymander.

It's a fairly clean map, 2 needs an arm into Camden county to be a double-digit Biden seat. Dems would have nothing to worry about in 12 given trends in Hunterdon, Somerset.

Pre- 2016 the Dems probably couldn't do more than 10-2 (need a NW pack) but the 2016-2020 trends in NJ are extremely favorable for Dems geography because they gained in suburbs, exurbs and only lost ground in deep blue cities, deep red Ocean (perfect for a GOP pack).

On the flip side Rs 6-6 map form last decade would be impossible today. You can do 3 R seats in South Jersey but in North Jersey the best you can do is two swingy seats

[Tekken_Guy]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Kean could very well hold that NJ-07 in 2024.

He wouldn't even win that in 2022. It's Biden +12 and stacks Piscataway, Morristown, Plainfield into a district with rural Sussex and parts of Dem trending Morris. I believe that map would be a very effective 11-1 gerrymander.

It's a fairly clean map, 2 needs an arm into Camden county to be a double-digit Biden seat. Dems would have nothing to worry about in 12 given trends in Hunterdon, Somerset.

Pre- 2016 the Dems probably couldn't do more than 10-2 (need a NW pack) but the 2016-2020 trends in NJ are extremely favorable for Dems geography because they gained in suburbs, exurbs and only lost ground in deep blue cities, deep red Ocean (perfect for a GOP pack).

Kean barely lost an Biden+10 seat in 2020. No reason to think he can’t win a Biden+12 in 2022, a better year for his party

[Devils30]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Kean could very well hold that NJ-07 in 2024.

He wouldn't even win that in 2022. It's Biden +12 and stacks Piscataway, Morristown, Plainfield into a district with rural Sussex and parts of Dem trending Morris. I believe that map would be a very effective 11-1 gerrymander.

It's a fairly clean map, 2 needs an arm into Camden county to be a double-digit Biden seat. Dems would have nothing to worry about in 12 given trends in Hunterdon, Somerset.

Pre- 2016 the Dems probably couldn't do more than 10-2 (need a NW pack) but the 2016-2020 trends in NJ are extremely favorable for Dems geography because they gained in suburbs, exurbs and only lost ground in deep blue cities, deep red Ocean (perfect for a GOP pack).

Kean barely lost an Biden+10 seat in 2020. No reason to think he can’t win a Biden+12 in 2022, a better year for his party

These are the worst type of GOP voters post Roe. Honestly I’m not sure Kean holds the NJ-7 he’s running in past 2024.

The 7th in that map is Clinton +5 and less ancestrally R than the current 7th. My point is that NJ Dems would draw a very effective gerrymander with this map.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Kean could very well hold that NJ-07 in 2024.

He wouldn't even win that in 2022. It's Biden +12 and stacks Piscataway, Morristown, Plainfield into a district with rural Sussex and parts of Dem trending Morris. I believe that map would be a very effective 11-1 gerrymander.

It's a fairly clean map, 2 needs an arm into Camden county to be a double-digit Biden seat. Dems would have nothing to worry about in 12 given trends in Hunterdon, Somerset.

Pre- 2016 the Dems probably couldn't do more than 10-2 (need a NW pack) but the 2016-2020 trends in NJ are extremely favorable for Dems geography because they gained in suburbs, exurbs and only lost ground in deep blue cities, deep red Ocean (perfect for a GOP pack).

Kean barely lost an Biden+10 seat in 2020. No reason to think he can’t win a Biden+12 in 2022, a better year for his party

These are the worst type of GOP voters post Roe. Honestly I’m not sure Kean holds the NJ-7 he’s running in past 2024.

The 7th in that map is Clinton +5 and less ancestrally R than the current 7th. My point is that NJ Dems would draw a very effective gerrymander with this map.

Honestly though given what the commission drew which was already Dems proffered map, it seems like they want Milnowski to lose to get someone better for the seat while locking in everyone else in North Jersey. They also didn’t unpack Coleman’s seat which is notable

[Tekken_Guy]

If the Supreme Court invalidates all redistricting commissions, the Dems probably do a map like this?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f4eb85c9-6061-4b59-86fd-27be40d2191d

Kean could very well hold that NJ-07 in 2024.

He wouldn't even win that in 2022. It's Biden +12 and stacks Piscataway, Morristown, Plainfield into a district with rural Sussex and parts of Dem trending Morris. I believe that map would be a very effective 11-1 gerrymander.

It's a fairly clean map, 2 needs an arm into Camden county to be a double-digit Biden seat. Dems would have nothing to worry about in 12 given trends in Hunterdon, Somerset.

Pre- 2016 the Dems probably couldn't do more than 10-2 (need a NW pack) but the 2016-2020 trends in NJ are extremely favorable for Dems geography because they gained in suburbs, exurbs and only lost ground in deep blue cities, deep red Ocean (perfect for a GOP pack).

Kean barely lost an Biden+10 seat in 2020. No reason to think he can’t win a Biden+12 in 2022, a better year for his party

These are the worst type of GOP voters post Roe. Honestly I’m not sure Kean holds the NJ-7 he’s running in past 2024.

The 7th in that map is Clinton +5 and less ancestrally R than the current 7th. My point is that NJ Dems would draw a very effective gerrymander with this map.

Honestly though given what the commission drew which was already Dems proffered map, it seems like they want Milnowski to lose to get someone better for the seat while locking in everyone else in North Jersey. They also didn’t unpack Coleman’s seat which is notable

They easily could have gotten NJ-07 to look like its old incarnation. That probably still knocks out Malinowski for 2022 but barring Kean turning into the next Fitzpatrick he’s out no later than 2026.