2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/davesredist/status/1464650589162323969?s=20

[kwabbit]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

I guess we just came to different conclusions. I drew a Biden +7, which seems very likely to be lost in 2022. South Jersey seems like it’s going to swing more than the national average in 2022 and Kim’s has overperformance in 2020 was more to Republican recruiting failure than personal popularity.

[Tekken_Guy]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

[Mr.Phips]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

Sure it could, but it would at least give Kim pretty good odds as opposed to the current district. 

[Tekken_Guy]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

Sure it could, but it would at least give Kim pretty good odds as opposed to the current district. 

You seemed to be suggesting he’d be safe in a Biden+8, rather than just that he’d be less endangered.

[Mr.Phips]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

Sure it could, but it would at least give Kim pretty good odds as opposed to the current district. 

You seemed to be suggesting he’d be safe in a Biden+8, rather than just that he’d be less endangered.

I’m not saying he’d be safe.  He should be favored in such a district, but it’s pretty much impossible to make it any better than that without making other Dem districts shaky.

[Tekken_Guy]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

Sure it could, but it would at least give Kim pretty good odds as opposed to the current district. 

You seemed to be suggesting he’d be safe in a Biden+8, rather than just that he’d be less endangered.

I’m not saying he’d be safe.  He should be favored in such a district, but it’s pretty much impossible to make it any better than that without making other Dem districts shaky.

Shaky, yes, but not seats they’d lose unless they’re having a really bad night. Also, they just need to turn Van Drew’s seat into an R sink and Kim should be safe.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

Sure it could, but it would at least give Kim pretty good odds as opposed to the current district. 

You seemed to be suggesting he’d be safe in a Biden+8, rather than just that he’d be less endangered.

I’m not saying he’d be safe.  He should be favored in such a district, but it’s pretty much impossible to make it any better than that without making other Dem districts shaky.

Shaky, yes, but not seats they’d lose unless they’re having a really bad night. Also, they just need to turn Van Drew’s seat into an R sink and Kim should be safe.

I’d argue pretty much no matter what Van Drew’s seat will be drawn to be swingy; ceding bluer Philly burbs means taking in Atlantic City. Deep South Jersey also just lacks extreme political geography.

[Tekken_Guy]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

Sure it could, but it would at least give Kim pretty good odds as opposed to the current district. 

You seemed to be suggesting he’d be safe in a Biden+8, rather than just that he’d be less endangered.

I’m not saying he’d be safe.  He should be favored in such a district, but it’s pretty much impossible to make it any better than that without making other Dem districts shaky.

Shaky, yes, but not seats they’d lose unless they’re having a really bad night. Also, they just need to turn Van Drew’s seat into an R sink and Kim should be safe.

I’d argue pretty much no matter what Van Drew’s seat will be drawn to be swingy; ceding bluer Philly burbs means taking in Atlantic City. Deep South Jersey also just lacks extreme political geography.

Van Drew already has Atlantic City in his seat. He can, however, get a lot more of Ocean in his seat than he has now.

[Mr.Phips]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

Sure it could, but it would at least give Kim pretty good odds as opposed to the current district. 

You seemed to be suggesting he’d be safe in a Biden+8, rather than just that he’d be less endangered.

I’m not saying he’d be safe.  He should be favored in such a district, but it’s pretty much impossible to make it any better than that without making other Dem districts shaky.

Shaky, yes, but not seats they’d lose unless they’re having a really bad night. Also, they just need to turn Van Drew’s seat into an R sink and Kim should be safe.

I’d argue pretty much no matter what Van Drew’s seat will be drawn to be swingy; ceding bluer Philly burbs means taking in Atlantic City. Deep South Jersey also just lacks extreme political geography.

Van Drew already has Atlantic City in his seat. He can, however, get a lot more of Ocean in his seat than he has now.

Certainly possible that he could cede all but the precincts along the coast to Kim.

[Tekken_Guy]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

Sure it could, but it would at least give Kim pretty good odds as opposed to the current district. 

You seemed to be suggesting he’d be safe in a Biden+8, rather than just that he’d be less endangered.

I’m not saying he’d be safe.  He should be favored in such a district, but it’s pretty much impossible to make it any better than that without making other Dem districts shaky.

Shaky, yes, but not seats they’d lose unless they’re having a really bad night. Also, they just need to turn Van Drew’s seat into an R sink and Kim should be safe.

I’d argue pretty much no matter what Van Drew’s seat will be drawn to be swingy; ceding bluer Philly burbs means taking in Atlantic City. Deep South Jersey also just lacks extreme political geography.

Van Drew already has Atlantic City in his seat. He can, however, get a lot more of Ocean in his seat than he has now.

Certainly possible that he could cede all but the precincts along the coast to Kim.

I'm not sure if mapmakers are willing to split the city here. And he can't just drop it altogether as that would make the district non-continuous. At the very least he might be willing to give up Pleasantville.

[CookieDamage]

Omg the 2021 GOV precincts are gonna look brutal for Dems I can see it just now guys i'm shaking

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/davesredist/status/1464650589162323969?s=20

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UzVB1Lj7do

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/davesredist/status/1464650589162323969?s=20

Christmas is coming early.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Omg the 2021 GOV precincts are gonna look brutal for Dems I can see it just now guys i'm shaking

Do you think it's possible to draw 7 Ciaterelli districts?

[CookieDamage]

Omg the 2021 GOV precincts are gonna look brutal for Dems I can see it just now guys i'm shaking

Do you think it's possible to draw 7 Ciaterelli districts?

I'm guessing 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 11 went for the GOP. That leaves 6. I think it's possible that Ciatarelli won it but it includes New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Piscataway etc so it might be hard for him to crack it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Omg the 2021 GOV precincts are gonna look brutal for Dems I can see it just now guys i'm shaking

Do you think it's possible to draw 7 Ciaterelli districts?

I'm guessing 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 11 went for the GOP. That leaves 6. I think it's possible that Ciatarelli won it but it includes New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Piscataway etc so it might be hard for him to crack it.

It should be easier than that. Ciaterreli did well in Southern Jersey. So crack the 1st and pack Ds in 5 seats in Northern Jersey+Trenton.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at a fair NJ map that keeps COIs together.

Colored by 2020; not as many competitive districts as I'd like, but it is what it is.

One thing that gets me annoyed about the NJ commission is political deals will prolly be cut (i.e. drawing Kean a seat that involves a weird snake into central Jersey) that end up with maps that benefit specific politicians rather than people (though it should in theory curb extreme partisan gerrymandering).

[Roll Roons]

Omg the 2021 GOV precincts are gonna look brutal for Dems I can see it just now guys i'm shaking

Do you think it's possible to draw 7 Ciaterelli districts?

I'm guessing 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 11 went for the GOP. That leaves 6. I think it's possible that Ciatarelli won it but it includes New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Piscataway etc so it might be hard for him to crack it.

I think Murphy won NJ-06 by 3-4 points. But Ciattarelli did win the others.

[Tekken_Guy]

My attempt at a fair NJ map that keeps COIs together.

Colored by 2020; not as many competitive districts as I'd like, but it is what it is.

One thing that gets me annoyed about the NJ commission is political deals will prolly be cut (i.e. drawing Kean a seat that involves a weird snake into central Jersey) that end up with maps that benefit specific politicians rather than people (though it should in theory curb extreme partisan gerrymandering).

Do you have the DRA link? I'd like to see the margins on each seat.

[Pollster]

In my first foray ever into DRA, I've managed to draw a map that went 11-1 for Biden/Booker/Clinton and 10-2 for Menendez/Murphy and gives every Democrat a solid path to reelection.

I paid no attention to any laws/COIs/etc and probably violated thousands of requirements. Many incumbents are slightly outside of their districts, but lines could probably easily be modified to get their homes within them. I don't know.

Don't know how to get a picture but here's a link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9283b68b-0bc2-4a5d-95cc-9d4bdb4dba15

Details:

NJ-01: Biden +45. Technically open by Sires lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-02: Biden +57 for Payne.
NJ-03: Biden +31 for Pascrell. Technically double-bunked with Sires but he would run in NJ-01.
NJ-04: Biden +11 for Gottheimer.
NJ-05: Biden +14 for Sherrill.
NJ-06: Biden +10. Smith, Watson Coleman, and Malinowski are triple-bunked but Watson Coleman probably runs here, Malinowski goes for NJ-07 and Smith for NJ-10.
NJ-07: Biden +25. Technically open but Malinowski would probably run here.
NJ-08: Biden +15 for Pallone.
NJ-09: Biden +7. Technically open but Kim lives just outside and would run here. Vulnerable in a GOP-favored cycle but Kim is probably strong enough to hold.
NJ-10: Trump +13. Technically Kim lives here but would run in NJ-09, Smith probably runs here.
NJ-11: Biden +10. Technically open but Norcross lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-12: Biden +6 to draw out Van Drew. He may survive a GOP-favored cycle but would not last.

[Tekken_Guy]

In my first foray ever into DRA, I've managed to draw a map that went 11-1 for Biden/Booker/Clinton and 10-2 for Menendez/Murphy and gives every Democrat a solid path to reelection.

I paid no attention to any laws/COIs/etc and probably violated thousands of requirements. Many incumbents are slightly outside of their districts, but lines could probably easily be modified to get their homes within them. I don't know.

Don't know how to get a picture but here's a link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9283b68b-0bc2-4a5d-95cc-9d4bdb4dba15

Details:

NJ-01: Biden +45. Technically open by Sires lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-02: Biden +57 for Payne.
NJ-03: Biden +31 for Pascrell. Technically double-bunked with Sires but he would run in NJ-01.
NJ-04: Biden +11 for Gottheimer.
NJ-05: Biden +14 for Sherrill.
NJ-06: Biden +10. Smith, Watson Coleman, and Malinowski are triple-bunked but Watson Coleman probably runs here, Malinowski goes for NJ-07 and Smith for NJ-10.
NJ-07: Biden +25. Technically open but Malinowski would probably run here.
NJ-08: Biden +15 for Pallone.
NJ-09: Biden +7. Technically open but Kim lives just outside and would run here. Vulnerable in a GOP-favored cycle but Kim is probably strong enough to hold.
NJ-10: Trump +13. Technically Kim lives here but would run in NJ-09, Smith probably runs here.
NJ-11: Biden +10. Technically open but Norcross lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-12: Biden +6 to draw out Van Drew. He may survive a GOP-favored cycle but would not last.

This could be up to 8-4 Republican in a GOP wave year.

[CookieDamage]

In my first foray ever into DRA, I've managed to draw a map that went 11-1 for Biden/Booker/Clinton and 10-2 for Menendez/Murphy and gives every Democrat a solid path to reelection.

I paid no attention to any laws/COIs/etc and probably violated thousands of requirements. Many incumbents are slightly outside of their districts, but lines could probably easily be modified to get their homes within them. I don't know.

Don't know how to get a picture but here's a link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9283b68b-0bc2-4a5d-95cc-9d4bdb4dba15

Details:

NJ-01: Biden +45. Technically open by Sires lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-02: Biden +57 for Payne.
NJ-03: Biden +31 for Pascrell. Technically double-bunked with Sires but he would run in NJ-01.
NJ-04: Biden +11 for Gottheimer.
NJ-05: Biden +14 for Sherrill.
NJ-06: Biden +10. Smith, Watson Coleman, and Malinowski are triple-bunked but Watson Coleman probably runs here, Malinowski goes for NJ-07 and Smith for NJ-10.
NJ-07: Biden +25. Technically open but Malinowski would probably run here.
NJ-08: Biden +15 for Pallone.
NJ-09: Biden +7. Technically open but Kim lives just outside and would run here. Vulnerable in a GOP-favored cycle but Kim is probably strong enough to hold.
NJ-10: Trump +13. Technically Kim lives here but would run in NJ-09, Smith probably runs here.
NJ-11: Biden +10. Technically open but Norcross lives just outside and would run here.
NJ-12: Biden +6 to draw out Van Drew. He may survive a GOP-favored cycle but would not last.

NJ-10 is not good. Putting Mount Laurel and other parts of western Burlington with Lakewood is a bad idea. It wastes Dem votes on a district that will never go blue. Would be much better in NJ-9. NJ-9 should take Moorestown, Mt Laurel etc and shed some of those Monmouth areas.

EDIT: made those changes and NJ-9 goes from like Biden +7 to Biden +16

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at a fair NJ map that keeps COIs together.

Colored by 2020; not as many competitive districts as I'd like, but it is what it is.

One thing that gets me annoyed about the NJ commission is political deals will prolly be cut (i.e. drawing Kean a seat that involves a weird snake into central Jersey) that end up with maps that benefit specific politicians rather than people (though it should in theory curb extreme partisan gerrymandering).

Do you have the DRA link? I'd like to see the margins on each seat.

Sure:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/31c650fe-999a-4943-abb7-e2d31847a651

Overall it's pretty simillar to the current map in terms of net partisanship, at least on 2020 numbers, just the seats are re-arranged a bit. Kinda interesting how a true R-Pack in NW Jersey can't really happen under today's politics whereas just a decade ago Rs were able to squeeze 3 seats out of the region.

[CookieDamage]

My map has held up surprisingly well. 2016 is on the left, 2020 on the right. You can see the Hispanic slippage in the Paterson district. None of the blue seats fall under Biden +14. I think this is a GOP wave proof gerrymander.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7724638b-2c68-4500-93cc-6ac40a35297a