2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Roll Roons]

Can Kean win in a district that contains Linden and Rahway? They are not Republican-friendly...

And Sherill gets another term because Maplewood and South Orange is added there...

I think given Malinowski's weakness and the fact that it's a good GOP year in 2022, Kean will win. However in 2024 with a presidential election Kean could definitely be in some trouble.

What if Malinowski runs in a different district or retires? Does that increase or decrease Kean's chances of winning?

Actually, speaking of Jack Ciattarrelli, he should be living in the new NJ-7, maybe he'll consider challenging Kean with the publicity and attention (and credibility on the R side) he gained this fall?

He already said he's running for Gov again in 4 years so I don't think so.

Yeah, his ambitions are clearly in state politics and not federal.

[David Hume]

Tie breaker Wallace's rationale for picking the Dem map? The Pub map was picked last time. That's it. Nothing more. Not sure why Wallace bothered to show up at the hearings. His mind was made up from day one. He gave the Dems his proxy vote.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1473683787968036866?s=20
On one level this is a total L O L, on another though it shows that the D Courts and Murphy were the indirect arbiters of the outcome - just like Christie was in 2011. The NJ system is horrible, but it is working as designed.

Actually the NJSC is still R leaning. One of the D justices was Wallace's clerk so did not vote. The rest breaks as 3R, 1 I (seems R leaning), 2 D. The R recommended tie-breaker was a appeal court judge. I was quite surprised when this guy was selected.

[Oryxslayer]

Tie breaker Wallace's rationale for picking the Dem map? The Pub map was picked last time. That's it. Nothing more. Not sure why Wallace bothered to show up at the hearings. His mind was made up from day one. He gave the Dems his proxy vote.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1473683787968036866?s=20
On one level this is a total L O L, on another though it shows that the D Courts and Murphy were the indirect arbiters of the outcome - just like Christie was in 2011. The NJ system is horrible, but it is working as designed.

Actually the NJSC is still R leaning. One of the D justices was Wallace's clerk so did not vote. The rest breaks as 3R, 1 I (seems R leaning), 2 D. The R recommended tie-breaker was a appeal court judge. I was quite surprised when this guy was selected.

We should all know that a R appointed Justice does not a conservative court make, and visa versa for D's, but I accept your correction.

[Suburbia]

Chris Smith should retire.

I see now why these congressmembers are millionaires. They save up money to move from place to place when they get redistricted out of their hometowns.

Congressmembers shouldn't be rich. How much homes do they have? I wonder if they rent or own homes?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Chris Smith should retire.

I see now why these congressmembers are millionaires. They save up money to move from place to place when they get redistricted out of their hometowns.

Congressmembers shouldn't be rich. How much homes do they have? I wonder if they rent or own homes?

I think you’re over estimating a bit. Most congresspeople are wealthy because to run, win, and actually commute as a federal legislator is expensive and time consuming. Often people who don’t have substantial wealth can’t run. In SC I heard some democratic operatives grown that the candidate for SC-7 couldn’t spend more time on her campaign cause she was a working single mother (gross ik). Campaigns are a (moderately) rich man’s game

[Suburbia]

Monmouth Democrats want Abigail Spanberger to come home to New Jersey to run against Chris Smith!!

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/monmouth-democratic-leader-recruiting-virginia-congresswoman-to-challenge-chris-smith/

Can she beat Smith in a 2022 campaign? She'd be called a carpetbagger.

[BoiseBoy]

Monmouth Democrats want Abigail Spanberger to come home to New Jersey to run against Chris Smith!!

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/monmouth-democratic-leader-recruiting-virginia-congresswoman-to-challenge-chris-smith/

Can she beat Smith in a 2022 campaign? She'd be called a carpetbagger.

This would be the most braindead political move in a generation. It's not happening, and no she won't win. Why even ask that?

[LabourJersey]

Monmouth Democrats want Abigail Spanberger to come home to New Jersey to run against Chris Smith!!

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/monmouth-democratic-leader-recruiting-virginia-congresswoman-to-challenge-chris-smith/

Can she beat Smith in a 2022 campaign? She'd be called a carpetbagger.

This is such a wildly stupid idea.

[Nyvin]

Monmouth Democrats want Abigail Spanberger to come home to New Jersey to run against Chris Smith!!

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/monmouth-democratic-leader-recruiting-virginia-congresswoman-to-challenge-chris-smith/

Can she beat Smith in a 2022 campaign? She'd be called a carpetbagger.

Challenge an established popular incumbent in a Trump+22 district.   That would probably go down as the worst decision by any member of Congress ever.

[BoiseBoy]

Haven't seen this yet but shapefiles were made available so here is a DRA copy of the map:

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::8a38e8b1-4215-4b40-821a-9656b568be98

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm not permanently back from my sanity leave, but I can only endure that for so long when it comes to my state and the redistricting news I have been dorkily anticipating.

Anyway, this map is aesthetically butt-ugly. I'm not going to lie. Especially districts 2, 3, 5 (my district still, which I wish they would just renumber as 12 already for the sake of a proper numbering order from north to south!), 7, 8, 9 (Oakland and Franklin Lakes with Paterson and Passaic?), 11, and 12. I guess that's all of them other than 1 and 4, haha! But that tangent aside, it seems to have been the best possible sort of map that the New Jersey Democratic Party could have drawn for partisan purposes.

I'm glad they didn't attempt to draw out Van Drew by possibly watering down the safety of Kim's or Norcross' district, as much as I want that turncoat out of Congress. It was always the wisest choice to shore up Gottheimer, Kim, and Sherrill and cut losses between Van Drew's and Malinowski's districts becoming more Republican. I actually don't think any of those three shored up districts will backfire like with the last maps did for the GOP barring a truly insurmountable Republican wave, which I don't think 2022 will be...it will be bad still of course, don't get me wrong, but mid to high single digit wins for those three at worst probably.

And speaking specifically about district 7, which is deservedly getting most of the attention, the New Jersey Democrats did a very good job at making it as close to a lateral movement as possible. I didn't expect that they would offset the district being drawn more into Sussex and Warren (as was probably always inevitable) so much by putting more of Union County in from Watson Coleman's old district. Kean will likely defeat Malinowski in a rematch here in 2022, but in other years, it's going to be a complete tossup. Hardly the Republican sink I figured it would be. I'll take it though. I really thought this map would be worse. If this was throwing Malinowski under the bus...it's true, but it's a pretty small and slow bus, relatively speaking.

And I will say, so as to not sound like a complete hack, the Republican map really wasn't all that bad. I probably would have tolerated it, even if it's not quite ideal. It was certainly neater looking too.

Anyway, I am going to continue my break from the forum starting now! Just had to get this (and a few spare other observations and posts in not entirely stressful topics) out of my system.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm not permanently back from my sanity leave, but I can only endure that for so long when it comes to my state and the redistricting news I have been dorkily anticipating.

Anyway, this map is aesthetically butt-ugly. I'm not going to lie. Especially districts 2, 3, 5 (my district still, which I wish they would just renumber as 12 already for the sake of a proper numbering order from north to south!), 7, 8, 9 (Oakland and Franklin Lakes with Paterson and Passaic?), 11, and 12. I guess that's all of them other than 1 and 4, haha! But that tangent aside, it seems to have been the best possible sort of map that the New Jersey Democratic Party could have drawn for partisan purposes.

I'm glad they didn't attempt to draw out Van Drew by possibly watering down the safety of Kim's or Norcross' district, as much as I want that turncoat out of Congress. It was always the wisest choice to shore up Gottheimer, Kim, and Sherrill and cut losses between Van Drew's and Malinowski's districts becoming more Republican. I actually don't think any of those three shored up districts will backfire like with the last maps did for the GOP barring a truly insurmountable Republican wave, which I don't think 2022 will be...it will be bad still of course, don't get me wrong, but mid to high single digit wins for those three at worst probably.

And speaking specifically about district 7, which is deservedly getting most of the attention, the New Jersey Democrats did a very good job at making it as close to a lateral movement as possible. I didn't expect that they would offset the district being drawn more into Sussex and Warren (as was probably always inevitable) so much by putting more of Union County in from Watson Coleman's old district. Kean will likely defeat Malinowski in a rematch here in 2022, but in other years, it's going to be a complete tossup. Hardly the Republican sink I figured it would be. I'll take it though. I really thought this map would be worse. If this was throwing Malinowski under the bus...it's true, but it's a pretty small and slow bus, relatively speaking.

And I will say, so as to not sound like a complete hack, the Republican map really wasn't all that bad. I probably would have tolerated it, even if it's not quite ideal. It was certainly neater looking too.

Anyway, I am going to continue my break from the forum starting now! Just had to get this (and a few spare other observations and posts in not entirely stressful topics) out of my system.

I doubt any of 3, 5, or 11 will flip, but if 2022 is really a mammoth GOP wave year, I could see the potential for a fluke a la OK-05, SC-01, NY-11, or at least come within 5 points or so. I could very well see 6 and 9 within single digits in 2022 as well.

[Oryxslayer]

Court orders their tiebreaker to detail his decision process.

[Torie]

Court orders their tiebreaker to detail his decision process.

It is hard to amplify the null set. Wallace explained his reason. His reason did not require him to actually look at the maps at all. It is heartening that high courts actually take their reputations seriously. I expect more action out of Ohio and New York courts as well, along with Florida if the Pubs get too greedy. If Wallace comes up with more reasons, they obviously will be reverse engineered. I wonder if the court can deem Wallace unfit after the fact, and replace him, or just supersede his finding.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Court orders their tiebreaker to detail his decision process.

It is hard to amplify the null set. Wallace explained his reason. His reason did not require him to actually look at the maps at all. It is heartening that high courts actually take their reputations seriously. I expect more action out of Ohio and New York courts as well, along with Florida if the Pubs get too greedy. If Wallace comes up with more reasons, they obviously will be reverse engineered. I wonder if the court can deem Wallace unfit after the fact, and replace him, or just supersede his finding.

Gretchen, stop trying to make Fair NY maps happen. Their not going to happen!

[ProgressiveModerate]

So is there a chance the map is actually overturned or do they just want more info and will pretty much accept whatever he says unless it's completely ergregious?

[Brittain33]

Court orders their tiebreaker to detail his decision process.

It is hard to amplify the null set. Wallace explained his reason. His reason did not require him to actually look at the maps at all. It is heartening that high courts actually take their reputations seriously. I expect more action out of Ohio and New York courts as well, along with Florida if the Pubs get too greedy. If Wallace comes up with more reasons, they obviously will be reverse engineered. I wonder if the court can deem Wallace unfit after the fact, and replace him, or just supersede his finding.

You know deus ex machina isn’t a legal doctrine, don’t you? 😂

[Roll Roons]

So is there a chance the map is actually overturned or do they just want more info and will pretty much accept whatever he says unless it's completely ergregious?

Probably the second option, but we'll see.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does the legislation spell out that the tiebreaker must have a certain type of rationale for picking the map? I mean it would be fair if so, but I didn't know that was the case. Did that come up in 2010 at all?

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/mattfriedmannj/status/1480992783850782722?s=21

[Pericles]

So is his argument that hypothetically if there were a 50-50 race in New Jersey, the Democratic map would be fairer than the Republican one? This shouldn't fly, because while that is a fair thing to consider, the map could then be unfair at the realistic levels of partisan support for elections in New Jersey. Proportionality should be part of partisan fairness too, so that voters of the opposite party in safe states are not under-represented.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So is his argument that hypothetically if there were a 50-50 race in New Jersey, the Democratic map would be fairer than the Republican one? This shouldn't fly, because while that is a fair thing to consider, the map could then be unfair at the realistic levels of partisan support for elections in New Jersey. Proportionality should be part of partisan fairness too, so that voters of the opposite party in safe states are not under-represented.

No, proportionality is an absurd criterion to apply to SMD maps, which when enforced tends to lead to objectively awful maps. Didn't we go over this in another thread recently?

[Torie]

The reasoning in what one could read from the tweet is absurd, the 50-50 snapshot as the measure of fairness standing alone is absurd, but given NJ has no standards for CD redistricting, unless the Court applies some rather basis test like SCOTUS, there does not seem to be a clear legal path toss the decision of the commission.

https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_New_Jersey

I hope more states go the direction of the VA law, where if a commission cannot reach a decision on a bipartisan basis, two special masters do it, appointed by the court, one each from a list of names provided by each party. The other tie breaker mechanism don't seem to work well often where one person rather than two are the tie breakers, without any checks and balances on such person.

[Ferguson97]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/289d3c90-9645-4866-9b71-088cafdf212d
this should be able to draw out Gottheimer and destroy his re-election chances. But it's extremely ugly.

Seeing you split Bergen County like this is extremely painful as a Bergen native lol, but yeah that would probably kill Gottheimer's chances

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/289d3c90-9645-4866-9b71-088cafdf212d
this should be able to draw out Gottheimer and destroy his re-election chances. But it's extremely ugly.

Seeing you split Bergen County like this is extremely painful as a Bergen native lol, but yeah that would probably kill Gottheimer's chances

He'd be forced to run in the 9th is my guess, where he'd very likely lose to Bill Prascell.