2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Ferguson97]

11-1 DEM gerrymander. Every blue seat is at least Clinton +12. I did not pay attention to incumbent home locations

I like this one

[Suburbia]

11-1 DEM gerrymander. Every blue seat is at least Clinton +12. I did not pay attention to incumbent home locations

Who would be NJ's lone Republican? Smith? Or would Chris Smith retire and one of the Ocean County legislators run for that seat?

Would Sweeney return to politics by running for Congress or maybe some other South Jersey Democrat?

[CookieDamage]

11-1 DEM gerrymander. Every blue seat is at least Clinton +12. I did not pay attention to incumbent home locations

Who would be NJ's lone Republican? Smith? Or would Chris Smith retire and one of the Ocean County legislators run for that seat?

Would Sweeney return to politics by running for Congress or maybe some other South Jersey Democrat?

Jeff Van Drew lives in the Republican district so he could move there and run. Unless he switches back to the Dems lol cuz the new SJ district is so much bluer and he votes more like a Dem than a Trumpy GOPer

[CookieDamage]

Also did a GOP dummymander. 7-5 GOP that probably became 9-3 DEM by 2018.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

Why would Andy Kim accept this map that eliminates his district? This is a non-starter; two D districts in South Jersey is essential.

The idea is that as long as Kim lives in the district he’ll be happy to get a Biden +35 district instead of a Trump district. Any 2022 configuration that guarantees Kim safety will have to include Mercer, it’s just how much of Ocean to include.

But you left him with no district at all. Norcross is in the Camden district and Watson Coleman is in the Trenton district.

Before 2018, the Dems had only the Camden seat for a long time, so it’s not ancestral. I think it could be decently likely that whatever they draw backfires in South Jersey, if Mercer isn’t included.

From a fairness perspective, perhaps, but the Democrats aren't going to accept eliminating Andy Kim and Tom Malinowski.

This is completely predicated on Watson Coleman retiring as I said in the initial post. It’s a dumb map if she’s not, but from what I’ve read she is expected to. Then Kim gets to occupy the safe 12th. The idea of the map is that every incumbent who plans to run in 2022 bar Malinowski gets a safe seat.

If Watson Coleman retires then Malinowski is probably going to get her seat rather than Kim, who can easily take in more parts of Camden instead.

[kwabbit]

It seems that DRA finally added 2020 data for NJ!!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems that DRA finally added 2020 data for NJ!!

Wonderful news!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looking at the 2020 data initially it seems like even though Biden didn’t improve on Clinton a whole lot in terms of statewide margin, his distribution of votes is significantly better than Clinton’s, especially in Northern Jersey. Basically every hyper-packed blue area shifted right, tossup suburbs shifted left, but deep red suburbs, especially in south Jersey were kinda a wash if not right shifting. Depolarization in geography tends to help the party in the majority in a state and this is no exception

[CookieDamage]

Hmm it looks like results by municipality and not precinct

[kwabbit]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hmm it looks like results by municipality and not precinct

For some reason this doesn't seem to be so in Winslow and Monroe townships in Gloucester and Camden counties.

[CookieDamage]

Also did a GOP dummymander. 7-5 GOP that probably became 9-3 DEM by 2018.

Actually 12-0 DEM in 2020 lol.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also did a GOP dummymander. 7-5 GOP that probably became 9-3 DEM by 2018.

Actually 12-0 DEM in 2020 lol.

[congressmen interested in having secure tenures disliked this]

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hmm it looks like results by municipality and not precinct

For some reason this doesn't seem to be so in Winslow and Monroe townships in Gloucester and Camden counties.

2016 Data:



2020 Data:



It definately is. Still better than no 2020 data but not ideal; sounds like actual precinct level results in NJ are really hard to get

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ba40b0a6-27f9-42c0-9e10-9e971c4cb1ac

Seems like it was by VTD rather than township though

[CookieDamage]

Ok yeah there's definitely an issue with the 2020 results, might be because of how NJ conducted the election??

In 2016, here's Lakewood. One of the reddest precincts (yellow circle) voted Trump 98-1, while the bluest precinct (green circle) voted Clinton like 56-40.



Contrast to 2020, where the whole township is the same shade of red and every precinct voted Trump 82-17 (mirroring the township as a whole), with some very minor variations. In the reddest precinct, that's a significant swing from 98-1, and in the bluest district, a monumental swing from 40-56.




And then we have Monroe township (in Middlesex County), which is rather divided between a democratic western half closer to the turnpike, and a more republican eastern half closer to Monmouth county.

In 2016 you can see the divide clearly. One of the more Democratic precincts (green circle) voted Clinton 66-32. The large precinct immediately to its east (yellow) was the opposite, being a Trump 62-34 precinct.



However, in 2020, both of these precincts, along with the whole township, voted Biden 54-45, with very little variation among precincts.



My hypothesis is that this municipality uniformity has something to do with how these municipalities reported their total vote, and because of the pandemic and predominantly mail in voting there was no precinct reporting.

[kwabbit]

My hypothesis is that this municipality uniformity has something to do with how these municipalities reported their total vote, and because of the pandemic and predominantly mail in voting there was no precinct reporting.

Yeah, given the primacy of municipalities in NJ, and the pandemic VBM being extremely difficult to allocate by precinct, I'm guessing every town and county didn't bother and just recorded it in the overall municipal vote totals. This slightly distorts gauging the partisanship of districts, but municipalities aren't usually chopped in NJ so it makes little difference. The only municipalities really large enough where chops are necessary are Newark and Jersey City, which would both be in Safe D districts. Precinct racial data is there so for VRA purposes there's no issue.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My hypothesis is that this municipality uniformity has something to do with how these municipalities reported their total vote, and because of the pandemic and predominantly mail in voting there was no precinct reporting.

Yeah, given the primacy of municipalities in NJ, and the pandemic VBM being extremely difficult to allocate by precinct, I'm guessing every town and county didn't bother and just recorded it in the overall municipal vote totals. This slightly distorts gauging the partisanship of districts, but municipalities aren't usually chopped in NJ so it makes little difference. The only municipalities really large enough where chops are necessary are Newark and Jersey City, which would both be in Safe D districts. Precinct racial data is there so for VRA purposes there's no issue.

If you look carefully it seems both JC and Newark have been breaken down by VTD.

If this is the case and there's no way to get accurate precinct results statewide I'm going to be very dissapointed in NJ for being lazy.

[Mr.Phips]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

[kwabbit]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

There could be land exchanged between the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. The 1st pulls out of Burlington County, which pushes the 2nd further into Ocean, and gives the 3rd a more Dem profile.

[Tekken_Guy]

If BWC does not retire in 2022, I wonder if she'd be generous enough to take in some rurals in Hunterdon/Warren/Sussex that would otherwise be in the "Kean sink" and allow Malinowski's seat to take in more of Somerset and Union. That would allow Dems a fighting chance at holding on the seat (or at the very least, flipping it back in '24 or '26 after losing it in '22). Her current district is like Biden+40 so she can afford to move way to the right.

As for Mikie Sherrill, she's probably going to want all of Montclair, West Orange, South Orange, Maplewood, Livingston, Millburn, Summit, Madison, Morristown, and Dover in her seat.

Gottheimer just needs to take in more of Pascrell's territory around Englewood and shed all the non-Bergen parts.

If Kim can't get Mercer or Camden, he could scoop in and get Dem-leaning parts of Atlantic and Cumberland currently in Van Drew's seat. He probably can't get AC though as that would make NJ-02 non-contiguous, but he could at least stretch into Pleasantville.

[Tekken_Guy]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

2, 3, and 7 are the main battlegrounds here, but if the wealthy suburbs really snap back to the GOP then 11 may come back into play (Menendez only won it by 4 points). 6 and 9 also seem right off the edge of the playing field in this map

Likewise, in a good year for Democrats they might make a play at 4.

[kwabbit]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

2, 3, and 7 are the main battlegrounds here, but if the wealthy suburbs really snap back to the GOP then 11 may come back into play (Menendez only won it by 4 points). 6 and 9 also seem right off the edge of the playing field in this map

Likewise, in a good year for Democrats they might make a play at 4.

I don't think NJ-04 is ever going to go Democrat. Smith is a very popular incumbent. He won by 12 even in 2018 and outperformed Trump by 11. Given that NJ-04 is probably going to get even redder, there's no way Smith loses even in the biggest Blue wave ever.

[Tekken_Guy]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

2, 3, and 7 are the main battlegrounds here, but if the wealthy suburbs really snap back to the GOP then 11 may come back into play (Menendez only won it by 4 points). 6 and 9 also seem right off the edge of the playing field in this map

Likewise, in a good year for Democrats they might make a play at 4.

I don't think NJ-04 is ever going to go Democrat. Smith is a very popular incumbent. He won by 12 even in 2018 and outperformed Trump by 11. Given that NJ-04 is probably going to get even redder, there's no way Smith loses even in the biggest Blue wave ever.

It’s probably safe with Smith, but when he retires and it’s a blue wave environment, it might be competitive — at least the one you drew.

[Mr.Phips]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.