Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,088
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« on: March 28, 2020, 12:23:24 PM » |
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« edited: March 28, 2020, 12:30:21 PM by Adam Griffin »
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There won't be any big changes. Statewide population is flat, each congressional district's population as a whole is pretty flat, and MS isn't losing a seat.
Between 2010 and 2016, my districts below (which are very similar to 2011 lines) saw anywhere from 23k pop growth ("CD 4") to 14k pop loss ("CD 2"); only a 2-3% change at max on either end. The other 2 CDs lost roughly 4k people each.
CD 2 has the same black population (60%) as the RL MS-2 did in 2010. BVAP was 3 percentage points lower than total pop there in 2010; the BVAP data for '16 isn't available in VRA, but I imagine the difference still tracks somewhat closely, though the post-recession economy has likely pushed more young black people out of there over the past few years (meaning CD 2 as drawn below is ~55-56% BVAP).
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