2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Mississippi

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What do you think will happen in MS? How will sluggish population growth and migration of black people from rurals to urban areas affect the map?

[Nyvin]

I can't imagine the black population has dropped enough to not warrant the Section 2 district though.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I can't imagine the black population has dropped enough to not warrant the Section 2 district though.

The Black population in MS has been growing slowly over the course of this decade.

[Del Tachi]

Like the 2010 redraw, we're probably looking at a minimal change map.

Honestly, I'd like to see MS-02 expand to take-in fast-growing DeSoto County and MS-01 take-in all of GTR. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Like the 2010 redraw, we're probably looking at a minimal change map.

Honestly, I'd like to see MS-02 expand to take-in fast-growing DeSoto County and MS-01 take-in all of GTR. 

GTR?

[Del Tachi]

Like the 2010 redraw, we're probably looking at a minimal change map.

Honestly, I'd like to see MS-02 expand to take-in fast-growing DeSoto County and MS-01 take-in all of GTR. 

GTR?

Golden Triangle.  Oktibbeha, Lowndes + Clay Counties.  Total population of about 130,000.  Its a clear COI that's currently split between MS-01 and MS-03.  The three counties are plurality White but voted for Obama/Clinton. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Like the 2010 redraw, we're probably looking at a minimal change map.

Honestly, I'd like to see MS-02 expand to take-in fast-growing DeSoto County and MS-01 take-in all of GTR. 

GTR?

Golden Triangle.  Oktibbeha, Lowndes + Clay Counties.  Total population of about 130,000.  Its a clear COI that's currently split between MS-01 and MS-03.  The three counties are plurality White but voted for Obama/Clinton. 

Ah.

[TML]

This is a state where it is possible to squeeze out a second D-leaning district, but apparently doing so would require (1) splitting more counties, (2) lengthening the total length of district boundaries, and (3) increasing the efficiency gap. Thus, I wonder if such a map would be considered a blatant pro-D gerrymander...

[Adam Griffin]

There won't be any big changes. Statewide population is flat, each congressional district's population as a whole is pretty flat, and MS isn't losing a seat.

Between 2010 and 2016, my districts below (which are very similar to 2011 lines) saw anywhere from 23k pop growth ("CD 4") to 14k pop loss ("CD 2"); only a 2-3% change at max on either end. The other 2 CDs lost roughly 4k people each.

CD 2 has the same black population (60%) as the RL MS-2 did in 2010. BVAP was 3 percentage points lower than total pop there in 2010; the BVAP data for '16 isn't available in VRA, but I imagine the difference still tracks somewhat closely, though the post-recession economy has likely pushed more young black people out of there over the past few years (meaning CD 2 as drawn below is ~55-56% BVAP).

[Frodo]

This would be the first cycle in which Republicans have total control over the redistricting process at the executive, legislative, and judicial levels.  How much more can they grow their majorities in the legislature, or (like their counterparts in Alabama) are they pretty much maxed out, and that the best they can do is simply hold on to what they have?  

[smoltchanov]

This would be the first cycle in which Republicans have total control over the redistricting process at both the executive and legislative levels.  How much more can they grow their majorities in the legislature, or (like their counterparts in Alabama) are they pretty much maxed out, and that the best they can do is simply hold on to what they have?  

I guess - mostly second option. They  (Republicans) may gain a couple of rural seats, still represented by white Democrats, but - few of them remain, so - gains there will be minimal. On the other hand - they may lose a couple of suburban seats, so, most likely, they are maxed out. Almost all "Black seats" are unaccessible to Republicans.. Almost the same situation as in Alabama (and Louisiana) - vast majority of whites vote Republican, while almost all Blacks - Democratic.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/75e31a80-328d-465b-8969-67183798741f
whole-county 2 black majority seats in MS

Counties in each CD, from north to south and west to east:

MS-01: Desoto, Tate, Marshall, Benton, Tippah, Alcorn, Tishomongo, Prentiss, Lafayette, Union, Pontotoc, Lee, Itawamba, Yalobusha, Calhoun, Chickasaw, Monroe, Grenada, Webster, Clay, Lowndes

MS-02: Tunica, Coahoma, Quitman, Panola, Tallahatchie, Bolivar, Sunflower, Leflore, Carroll, Montgomery, Choctaw, Oktibbeha, Washington, Humphreys, Holmes, Attala, Winston, Noxubee, Issaquena, Sharkey, Yazoo, Madison, Leake, Neshoba, Kemper, Scott, Newton, Lauderdale, Clarke

MS-03: Warren, Hinds, Claiborne, Copiah, Simpson, Jefferson, Adams, Franklin, Lincoln, Lawrence, Jefferson Davis, Covington, Wilkinson, Amite, Pike, Walthall, Marion, Lamar, Forrest, Stone

MS-04: Rankin, Smith, Jasper, Jones, Wayne, Perry, Greene, Pearl River, George, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1f207eec-8f76-422d-a17c-ddedfbcb9aa5
the same concept except based off 2018 population figures.

[Torie]

Here is another concept.   Addendum: Now new and improved!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is another concept. 

Republican gerrymander? Democratic gerrymander? Bipartisan gerrymander? None of the above?

[Torie]

It's an attempt to game the VRA by drawing a district that minimizes white Dems, maximizes black Pubs and/or black non voters. The very "best" precincts are those with prisons. The evil scheme is out there on the public square. Of course, if it goes to SCOTUS, the BCVAP number should remove those ineligible to vote because they are behind bars. Mississippi and that one CD, is where there is some potential to play this game, to my knowledge.

And this map has "perfect" population equality, because now for some states (of which Mississippi is one), the DRA allows one to hit a precinct, and then zoom in to cull the census blocks. Sometimes it takes some work, because most of the population in a precinct is in one or two census blocks.  I believe the census protocol, is that within a census block, you estimate the population  split based on the relative number of housing units on each side of the line. Where the line bisects a house, you look to where the kitchen is. If it bisects a nursing home, you ask for a floor plan of the bedrooms. That hypo as to both actually occurred in Hudson, since I drew a map which bifurcated a couple of census blocks, and the old map bisected the Fireman's Home, but nobody knew that but me, because it's Hudson. I seem to get around, don't I?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's an attempt to game the VRA by drawing a district that minimizes white Dems, maximizes black Pubs and/or black non voters. The very "best" precincts are those with prisons. The evil scheme is out there on the public square. Of course, if it goes to SCOTUS, the BCVAP number should remove those ineligible to vote because they are behind bars. Mississippi and that one CD, is where there is some potential to play this game, to my knowledge.

And this map has "perfect" population equality, because now for some states (of which Mississippi is one), the DRA allows one to hit a precinct, and then zoom in to cull the census blocks. Sometimes it takes some work, because most of the population in a precinct is in one or two census blocks.  I believe the census protocol, is that within a census block, you estimate the population  split based on the relative number of housing units on each side of the line. Where the line bisects a house, you look to where the kitchen is. If it bisects a nursing home, you ask for a floor plan of the bedrooms. That hypo as to both actually occurred in Hudson, since I drew a map which bifurcated a couple of census blocks, and the old map bisected the Fireman's Home, but nobody knew that but me, because it's Hudson. I seem to get around, don't I?

Why would the BCVAP figure reveal anything of import if black prisoners are still citizens?

[Torie]

It's an attempt to game the VRA by drawing a district that minimizes white Dems, maximizes black Pubs and/or black non voters. The very "best" precincts are those with prisons. The evil scheme is out there on the public square. Of course, if it goes to SCOTUS, the BCVAP number should remove those ineligible to vote because they are behind bars. Mississippi and that one CD, is where there is some potential to play this game, to my knowledge.

And this map has "perfect" population equality, because now for some states (of which Mississippi is one), the DRA allows one to hit a precinct, and then zoom in to cull the census blocks. Sometimes it takes some work, because most of the population in a precinct is in one or two census blocks.  I believe the census protocol, is that within a census block, you estimate the population  split based on the relative number of housing units on each side of the line. Where the line bisects a house, you look to where the kitchen is. If it bisects a nursing home, you ask for a floor plan of the bedrooms. That hypo as to both actually occurred in Hudson, since I drew a map which bifurcated a couple of census blocks, and the old map bisected the Fireman's Home, but nobody knew that but me, because it's Hudson. I seem to get around, don't I?

Why would the BCVAP figure reveal anything of import if black prisoners are still citizens?

Prisoners can't vote. So they count towards getting to 50% BCVAP if black, but they don't vote. One could write a program (or just do a data sort of the precinct data on a spread sheet and map it) to find in descending order the ratio of BVCAP's to Dem percentage in each precinct, put those precincts on a map and use the "best" one's within reach, and also map the precincts that have the lowest ratio of non black voters (almost all white in MS) to Republican votes, and map those precincts as ones to avoid where possible. You might also tag a set of precincts that are at least say 50% BCVAP that have the highest ratio of black BCVAP to total population to ferret out the low turnout black precincts. The issue is just how much of that the court's will tolerate.

Playing the  prison pawn is probably one that the courts will not tolerate, but who knows?
I remember a precinct in Madison County, Ohio that had like 5,000 people and about 400 votes or something (I see it is still there, with still a huge ratio discrepancy (Marysville 10) . It has a prison in it.  

One thing that is reasonably safe to assume is that if you play this game you had better be right at 50% BCVAP, or very, very close to it, and can defend that percentage (it is a mere estimate), where the gerrymander like the map above had lines that were clearly drawn using the "program" as described above. Such a map is obviously being drawn to take out a black Democrat where the voting in many areas seems to be around 95% racially polarized. In some areas it is less polarized, sometimes favoring the Pubs, and sometimes  the Dems, vis a vis the racial percentages. Where it favors the Dems (more white Democrats as a percentage of the pie), those are often the worst precincts of all.

[Stuart98]

Surely such a district would be litigated out of existence since it's drawn to prevent the black population from being able to elect the candidate of their choice, right?

[Torie]

Surely such a district would be litigated out of existence since it's drawn to prevent the black population from being able to elect the candidate of their choice, right?

Not if 50% BCVAP is a safe harbor. This hypothetical puts stress on that concept obviously.

[Torie]

And here is a very reasonable looking map, that gets quite close to the same thing. Interesting: the whole exercise was all sound and fury signifying not much. So now the issue is whether the Pubs will put MS-02 in play, particularly if and when the incumbent Thompson retires.

[I’m not Stu]

I created my map of Mississippi

MS-01: Trent Kelly
MS-02: Bennie Thompson
MS-03: OPEN
MS-04: Steven Palazzo



Partisan composition.

[I’m not Stu]

My illegal racial gerrymander of Mississippi. It draws an open MS-01.



Partisanship.

[Biden his time]

I tried my hand at a fair 4-district map of Mississippi.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

13/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
73/100 on the Compactness Index
100/100 on County Splitting
100/100 on the Minority Representation index
1/100 on Dave's competitiveness index (lol)

The map above shows results from a "2012 - 2016 Composite" (which is all that's available).

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

Basically anything: 3R to 1D


Opinions?

[perpetual_cynic]

Has anyone made a proposal splitting Hinds County, would it carve out Jackson?