2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Mississippi

[Del Tachi]

Like the 2010 redraw, we're probably looking at a minimal change map.

Honestly, I'd like to see MS-02 expand to take-in fast-growing DeSoto County and MS-01 take-in all of GTR. 

[Del Tachi]

Like the 2010 redraw, we're probably looking at a minimal change map.

Honestly, I'd like to see MS-02 expand to take-in fast-growing DeSoto County and MS-01 take-in all of GTR. 

GTR?

Golden Triangle.  Oktibbeha, Lowndes + Clay Counties.  Total population of about 130,000.  Its a clear COI that's currently split between MS-01 and MS-03.  The three counties are plurality White but voted for Obama/Clinton. 

[Del Tachi]

Good map honestly. Nothing worth criticizing. Of course the GOP's hands are tied by the VRA here.

I think this map is bad based on COI, but is a wash politically. If I were drawing the map based on COI without consideration to partisanship, there would be 2 Safe R seats, and 2 Swing seats, the swing seats being around Biden + 2.2 and Biden + 2.5. It would have the potential to either double or nothing Black Representation in the state, depending on how strong their turnout was in any given year.

I feel like the Black population along the Mississippi is a COI in its own right, and diluting it by splitting into two districts doesn't feel right to me.

The obvious solution is to have most black areas outside of Metro Jackson be in one district, and then have a dedicated Metro Jackson CD with at least all of Hinds, Pearl.
It should be noted that the Black % is, by a very slim margin, closer to 2 seats than 1 (out of 4).

Democrats (mostly from SWMS) actually had a redistricting plan in 2001 that would have snaked MS-01 down into Rankin/Madison to make two D-leaning seats.  Northeast conservadems and Black Dems balked and we got a Jackson + Delta district with >60% Black VAP.

This map would be the equivalent of the 2001 proposal based on 2020 numbers.  The two D-leaning districts are only plurality Black VAP however (49.3% and 49.6%) but the trends are probably better for Dems here than other Deep South VRA districts like GA-02, I'd guess.

FWIW, this alignment also double bunks Kelly and Guest so that MS-03 has more potential to elect a Black candidate of choice.  Tupelo with Jackson suburbs is obviously horrible from a COI standpoint.  

You could probably play with the map to get both seats above 50% Black VAP at the expense of cleaner lines.