In the wake of the recent Supreme Court ruling, with Texas, Louisiana, Georgia, North Carolina, and potentially other southern states with a relatively large African American minority population electing potentially an extra member of the Congressional Black Caucus, could we see Mississippi getting in on the action? Could the Magnolia State get an extra BVAP congressional district?
I'm not sure if it is possible to create two relatively compact BVAP districts in MS - back in 2018, when 538 released its "Atlas of Redistricting," the maps for MS showed that in order to create two BVAP districts in MS, many more counties would have to be split (15 vs 4) and the district shapes would be decidedly less compact compared to the actual 2010s map.
Two relatively compact districts is possible but you have to create additional county splits. You can get two majority BVAP districts with only four split counties (see
this mess of a map) but it requires a compactness violation in at least two places (on this map, Madison County and Jones County). I'd hazard a guess that eight splits are required for two compact majority BVAP districts.
