2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Mississippi

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What do you think will happen in MS? How will sluggish population growth and migration of black people from rurals to urban areas affect the map?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Like the 2010 redraw, we're probably looking at a minimal change map.

Honestly, I'd like to see MS-02 expand to take-in fast-growing DeSoto County and MS-01 take-in all of GTR. 

GTR?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Like the 2010 redraw, we're probably looking at a minimal change map.

Honestly, I'd like to see MS-02 expand to take-in fast-growing DeSoto County and MS-01 take-in all of GTR. 

GTR?

Golden Triangle.  Oktibbeha, Lowndes + Clay Counties.  Total population of about 130,000.  Its a clear COI that's currently split between MS-01 and MS-03.  The three counties are plurality White but voted for Obama/Clinton. 

Ah.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/75e31a80-328d-465b-8969-67183798741f
whole-county 2 black majority seats in MS

Counties in each CD, from north to south and west to east:

MS-01: Desoto, Tate, Marshall, Benton, Tippah, Alcorn, Tishomongo, Prentiss, Lafayette, Union, Pontotoc, Lee, Itawamba, Yalobusha, Calhoun, Chickasaw, Monroe, Grenada, Webster, Clay, Lowndes

MS-02: Tunica, Coahoma, Quitman, Panola, Tallahatchie, Bolivar, Sunflower, Leflore, Carroll, Montgomery, Choctaw, Oktibbeha, Washington, Humphreys, Holmes, Attala, Winston, Noxubee, Issaquena, Sharkey, Yazoo, Madison, Leake, Neshoba, Kemper, Scott, Newton, Lauderdale, Clarke

MS-03: Warren, Hinds, Claiborne, Copiah, Simpson, Jefferson, Adams, Franklin, Lincoln, Lawrence, Jefferson Davis, Covington, Wilkinson, Amite, Pike, Walthall, Marion, Lamar, Forrest, Stone

MS-04: Rankin, Smith, Jasper, Jones, Wayne, Perry, Greene, Pearl River, George, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1f207eec-8f76-422d-a17c-ddedfbcb9aa5
the same concept except based off 2018 population figures.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is another concept. 

Republican gerrymander? Democratic gerrymander? Bipartisan gerrymander? None of the above?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's an attempt to game the VRA by drawing a district that minimizes white Dems, maximizes black Pubs and/or black non voters. The very "best" precincts are those with prisons. The evil scheme is out there on the public square. Of course, if it goes to SCOTUS, the BCVAP number should remove those ineligible to vote because they are behind bars. Mississippi and that one CD, is where there is some potential to play this game, to my knowledge.

And this map has "perfect" population equality, because now for some states (of which Mississippi is one), the DRA allows one to hit a precinct, and then zoom in to cull the census blocks. Sometimes it takes some work, because most of the population in a precinct is in one or two census blocks.  I believe the census protocol, is that within a census block, you estimate the population  split based on the relative number of housing units on each side of the line. Where the line bisects a house, you look to where the kitchen is. If it bisects a nursing home, you ask for a floor plan of the bedrooms. That hypo as to both actually occurred in Hudson, since I drew a map which bifurcated a couple of census blocks, and the old map bisected the Fireman's Home, but nobody knew that but me, because it's Hudson. I seem to get around, don't I?

Why would the BCVAP figure reveal anything of import if black prisoners are still citizens?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

MS-02 had heavy population loss in the Census, while all of the other three districts grew slightly, so I assume it will have to grow significantly in area, while still remaining VRA-compliant. Disco’s map would suggest that that is still perfectly possible, though.

BTW this is why I just do not understand all the Dem excitement about MS. 

I don't know why population loss in MS-02 would be of much relevance to how MS votes statewide anymore than, say, actual statewide elections (some of which do show clear D trends - look at how Mike Espy did).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I've drawn a gerrymander of the MS State House that DRA rates as anti-majoritarian. Will post shortly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b90c602c-76b8-48e7-9a9f-c7ce8c686915

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good map honestly. Nothing worth criticizing. Of course the GOP's hands are tied by the VRA here.

I think this map is bad based on COI, but is a wash politically. If I were drawing the map based on COI without consideration to partisanship, there would be 2 Safe R seats, and 2 Swing seats, the swing seats being around Biden + 2.2 and Biden + 2.5. It would have the potential to either double or nothing Black Representation in the state, depending on how strong their turnout was in any given year.

I feel like the Black population along the Mississippi is a COI in its own right, and diluting it by splitting into two districts doesn't feel right to me.

The obvious solution is to have most black areas outside of Metro Jackson be in one district, and then have a dedicated Metro Jackson CD with at least all of Hinds, Pearl.
It should be noted that the Black % is, by a very slim margin, closer to 2 seats than 1 (out of 4).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good map honestly. Nothing worth criticizing. Of course the GOP's hands are tied by the VRA here.

I think this map is bad based on COI, but is a wash politically. If I were drawing the map based on COI without consideration to partisanship, there would be 2 Safe R seats, and 2 Swing seats, the swing seats being around Biden + 2.2 and Biden + 2.5. It would have the potential to either double or nothing Black Representation in the state, depending on how strong their turnout was in any given year.

I feel like the Black population along the Mississippi is a COI in its own right, and diluting it by splitting into two districts doesn't feel right to me.

The obvious solution is to have most black areas outside of Metro Jackson be in one district, and then have a dedicated Metro Jackson CD with at least all of Hinds, Pearl.
It should be noted that the Black % is, by a very slim margin, closer to 2 seats than 1 (out of 4).

Democrats (mostly from SWMS) actually had a redistricting plan in 2001 that would have snaked MS-01 down into Rankin/Madison to make two D-leaning seats.  Northeast conservadems and Black Dems balked and we got a Jackson + Delta district with >60% Black VAP.

This map would be the equivalent of the 2001 proposal based on 2020 numbers.  The two D-leaning districts are only plurality Black VAP however (49.3% and 49.6%) but the trends are probably better for Dems here than other Deep South VRA districts like GA-02, I'd guess.

FWIW, this alignment also double bunks Kelly and Guest so that MS-03 has more potential to elect a Black candidate of choice.  Tupelo with Jackson suburbs is obviously horrible from a COI standpoint. 

You could probably play with the map to get both seats above 50% Black VAP at the expense of cleaner lines.

That's a very efficient way of producing two Democratic districts.
Why did Black Dems balk? I guess they were more interested in solid control over one seat as opposed to very likely control over two?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is probably among the fairest maps you can get from a racial perspective. Effectively 1 Black seat, 2 White seats, and 1 Tossup. Biden won MS-02 (51.8% Black VAP, 54.6% Black total population) by 7.2 points here, and Espy won it by 14.8 points.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/148e233a-c6d8-4f48-ab3a-5cd7ed13f132

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You can actually put all of the core Jackson metro area and the Delta in a majority Black district, but it does require cutting out Vicksburg and points to the south. IMO a district like this is decent CoI and is 53% BVAP:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2ecf9a55-4061-434c-bb8e-83ea5d374f8b
Thoughts on this for the rest of the map?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You can actually put all of the core Jackson metro area and the Delta in a majority Black district, but it does require cutting out Vicksburg and points to the south. IMO a district like this is decent CoI and is 53% BVAP:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2ecf9a55-4061-434c-bb8e-83ea5d374f8b
Thoughts on this for the rest of the map?

Don't really understand your split of Hattiesburg--still doesn't do much for Black representation.

This is what I did:



The big annoying bit is the placement of the Golden Triangle--I ended up clipping a few precincts in Clay County to avoid an awkward prong into Attala or Winston. Thankfully they're on the rural western end, away from West Point, so hopefully it's not too much of a party foul.

MS-3 is a bit ugly, but that's forced by the geography in most maps anyway. It's fairly safe Republican but could go to a Doug Jones type in a very good environment. 

Splitting the Hattiesburg area results in another majority-minority district, though I admit it's a longshot at least until later in the decade.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I managed a modest improvement on my prior map:



MS-02's Black VAP increases a hair to 61.4%, and now only a single county (Lowndes) is split.

That is THE map. We don't like erosity from this particular quarter. Kudos.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cbcc96d5-6af5-414c-bbeb-8cf67e8f3b31
How does this compare?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Mississippi Republican Party is most likely maxed out in the Senate, but there are still gains to be made in the House.  Apparently, they could win up to 80 seats after next year's elections (up from 77 currently):

Redistricting gives GOP chance to increase super majorities

Part of me wonders if this will backfire horribly by the end of the decade, if the state trends significantly towards Democrats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Mississippi Republican Party is most likely maxed out in the Senate, but there are still gains to be made in the House.  Apparently, they could win up to 80 seats after next year's elections (up from 77 currently):

Redistricting gives GOP chance to increase super majorities

Part of me wonders if this will backfire horribly by the end of the decade, if the state trends significantly towards Democrats.

Plausible.  Mississippi and Louisiana, for that matter, get very attractive for Democrats with even a modest decline in racial polarization.  This would be accentuated in a legislative body with many VRA districts. 

However, note there are only 2 elections in both states on this set of maps due to the 4 year terms for everything.

What years will the districts on the maps be up in? 2022, 2026, and 2030? If so, that would total three.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Mississippi Republican Party is most likely maxed out in the Senate, but there are still gains to be made in the House.  Apparently, they could win up to 80 seats after next year's elections (up from 77 currently):

Redistricting gives GOP chance to increase super majorities

Part of me wonders if this will backfire horribly by the end of the decade, if the state trends significantly towards Democrats.

Plausible.  Mississippi and Louisiana, for that matter, get very attractive for Democrats with even a modest decline in racial polarization.  This would be accentuated in a legislative body with many VRA districts. 

However, note there are only 2 elections in both states on this set of maps due to the 4 year terms for everything.

What years will the districts on the maps be up in? 2022, 2026, and 2030? If so, that would total three.

Mississippi holds statewide elections in odd-numbered years. 

D'oh. I forgot about that.
That does total three elections though (provided they don't pass new maps before the 2031 elections). 2023, 2027, and 2031. If the 2031 elections happen, that might be quite telling about the potential Ds have on state legislative level.