2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Mississippi

[lfromnj]

Good map honestly. Nothing worth criticizing. Of course the GOP's hands are tied by the VRA here.

I think this map is bad based on COI, but is a wash politically. If I were drawing the map based on COI without consideration to partisanship, there would be 2 Safe R seats, and 2 Swing seats, the swing seats being around Biden + 2.2 and Biden + 2.5. It would have the potential to either double or nothing Black Representation in the state, depending on how strong their turnout was in any given year.

I feel like the Black population along the Mississippi is a COI in its own right, and diluting it by splitting into two districts doesn't feel right to me.

The obvious solution is to have most black areas outside of Metro Jackson be in one district, and then have a dedicated Metro Jackson CD with at least all of Hinds, Pearl.
It should be noted that the Black % is, by a very slim margin, closer to 2 seats than 1 (out of 4).

MS Democrats actually had a redistricting plan in 2001 that would have snaked MS-01 down into Rankin/Madison to make two D-leaning seats.  Black Dems balked and we got a Jackson + Delta district with >60% Black VAP.

This map would be the equivalent of the 2001 proposal based on 2020 numbers.  The two D-leaning districts are only plurality Black VAP however (49.3% and 49.6%) but the trends are probably better for Dems here than other Deep South VRA districts like GA-02, I'd guess.

I mean GA02 could also have Warner Robbins which it doesn't have but has quite good trends.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This is the map I am talking about ftr:



Neither of Delta area nor the Jackson Metro are split.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is the map I am talking about ftr:



Neither of Delta area nor the Jackson Metro are split.

No, that 2nd seat is an abomination. There's a very natural East-West divide in MS and I see no reason to break it.

[If my soul was made of stone]

This is the map I am talking about ftr:



Neither of Delta area nor the Jackson Metro are split.

Putting Starkville in a Metro Jackson seat is a clear Dem gerrymander that isn't justified by minority concerns, since Oktibbeha County is less than 40% Black.

[lfromnj]

This is the map I am talking about ftr:



Neither of Delta area nor the Jackson Metro are split.

No, that 2nd seat is an abomination. There's a very natural East-West divide in MS and I see no reason to break it.

Not really. That area of Eastern MS is basically an extension of the Alabama black belt which follows the fall line. The MS delta is the main black rural part of MS though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good map honestly. Nothing worth criticizing. Of course the GOP's hands are tied by the VRA here.

I think this map is bad based on COI, but is a wash politically. If I were drawing the map based on COI without consideration to partisanship, there would be 2 Safe R seats, and 2 Swing seats, the swing seats being around Biden + 2.2 and Biden + 2.5. It would have the potential to either double or nothing Black Representation in the state, depending on how strong their turnout was in any given year.

I feel like the Black population along the Mississippi is a COI in its own right, and diluting it by splitting into two districts doesn't feel right to me.

The obvious solution is to have most black areas outside of Metro Jackson be in one district, and then have a dedicated Metro Jackson CD with at least all of Hinds, Pearl.
It should be noted that the Black % is, by a very slim margin, closer to 2 seats than 1 (out of 4).

Democrats (mostly from SWMS) actually had a redistricting plan in 2001 that would have snaked MS-01 down into Rankin/Madison to make two D-leaning seats.  Northeast conservadems and Black Dems balked and we got a Jackson + Delta district with >60% Black VAP.

This map would be the equivalent of the 2001 proposal based on 2020 numbers.  The two D-leaning districts are only plurality Black VAP however (49.3% and 49.6%) but the trends are probably better for Dems here than other Deep South VRA districts like GA-02, I'd guess.

FWIW, this alignment also double bunks Kelly and Guest so that MS-03 has more potential to elect a Black candidate of choice.  Tupelo with Jackson suburbs is obviously horrible from a COI standpoint. 

You could probably play with the map to get both seats above 50% Black VAP at the expense of cleaner lines.

That's a very efficient way of producing two Democratic districts.
Why did Black Dems balk? I guess they were more interested in solid control over one seat as opposed to very likely control over two?

[lfromnj]

Good map honestly. Nothing worth criticizing. Of course the GOP's hands are tied by the VRA here.

I think this map is bad based on COI, but is a wash politically. If I were drawing the map based on COI without consideration to partisanship, there would be 2 Safe R seats, and 2 Swing seats, the swing seats being around Biden + 2.2 and Biden + 2.5. It would have the potential to either double or nothing Black Representation in the state, depending on how strong their turnout was in any given year.

I feel like the Black population along the Mississippi is a COI in its own right, and diluting it by splitting into two districts doesn't feel right to me.

The obvious solution is to have most black areas outside of Metro Jackson be in one district, and then have a dedicated Metro Jackson CD with at least all of Hinds, Pearl.
It should be noted that the Black % is, by a very slim margin, closer to 2 seats than 1 (out of 4).

Democrats (mostly from SWMS) actually had a redistricting plan in 2001 that would have snaked MS-01 down into Rankin/Madison to make two D-leaning seats.  Northeast conservadems and Black Dems balked and we got a Jackson + Delta district with >60% Black VAP.

This map would be the equivalent of the 2001 proposal based on 2020 numbers.  The two D-leaning districts are only plurality Black VAP however (49.3% and 49.6%) but the trends are probably better for Dems here than other Deep South VRA districts like GA-02, I'd guess.

FWIW, this alignment also double bunks Kelly and Guest so that MS-03 has more potential to elect a Black candidate of choice.  Tupelo with Jackson suburbs is obviously horrible from a COI standpoint. 

You could probably play with the map to get both seats above 50% Black VAP at the expense of cleaner lines.

That's a very efficient way of producing two Democratic districts.
Why did Black Dems balk? I guess they were more interested in solid control over one seat as opposed to very likely control over two?

Black Democrats were also still a bit distrustful and weren't sure about the needed percentage. GA black Dems figured out how to work with White Democrats by 2001 though. It was a bit too late .

[OneJ]

The third is safe R in either map. Kind of weird that there was no agreement here.

I may be wrong on this but I believe some of why there was disagreement is Northeast Jackson. That area is pretty much the last Republican "stronghold" of Jackson and one of the last in Hinds overall.

However, NE Jackson has been trending Dem somewhat rapidly lately (some precincts did so mainly because of black people moving in place of whites, then you have others like the >90% white neighborhood of Eastover shifting towards the Dems w/o much demographic change.). It's the one area of Jackson that's growing (or at least not losing population to the extent that west and south Jackson are) and I guess Dems feel it might be best to give them that area to better blunt the population loss MS-02 has been experiencing and will likely continue to do so.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is probably among the fairest maps you can get from a racial perspective. Effectively 1 Black seat, 2 White seats, and 1 Tossup. Biden won MS-02 (51.8% Black VAP, 54.6% Black total population) by 7.2 points here, and Espy won it by 14.8 points.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/148e233a-c6d8-4f48-ab3a-5cd7ed13f132

[Sol]

You can actually put all of the core Jackson metro area and the Delta in a majority Black district, but it does require cutting out Vicksburg and points to the south. IMO a district like this is decent CoI and is 53% BVAP:

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You can actually put all of the core Jackson metro area and the Delta in a majority Black district, but it does require cutting out Vicksburg and points to the south. IMO a district like this is decent CoI and is 53% BVAP:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2ecf9a55-4061-434c-bb8e-83ea5d374f8b
Thoughts on this for the rest of the map?

[If my soul was made of stone]

I managed a modest improvement on my prior map:



MS-02's Black VAP increases a hair to 61.4%, and now only a single county (Lowndes) is split.

[Sol]

You can actually put all of the core Jackson metro area and the Delta in a majority Black district, but it does require cutting out Vicksburg and points to the south. IMO a district like this is decent CoI and is 53% BVAP:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2ecf9a55-4061-434c-bb8e-83ea5d374f8b
Thoughts on this for the rest of the map?

Don't really understand your split of Hattiesburg--still doesn't do much for Black representation.

This is what I did:



The big annoying bit is the placement of the Golden Triangle--I ended up clipping a few precincts in Clay County to avoid an awkward prong into Attala or Winston. Thankfully they're on the rural western end, away from West Point, so hopefully it's not too much of a party foul.

MS-3 is a bit ugly, but that's forced by the geography in most maps anyway. It's fairly safe Republican but could go to a Doug Jones type in a very good environment. 

[BoiseBoy]

Legislature has passed the MS map, and now Gov. Reeves just needs to sign it before it becomes official.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1481320985169207296?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You can actually put all of the core Jackson metro area and the Delta in a majority Black district, but it does require cutting out Vicksburg and points to the south. IMO a district like this is decent CoI and is 53% BVAP:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2ecf9a55-4061-434c-bb8e-83ea5d374f8b
Thoughts on this for the rest of the map?

Don't really understand your split of Hattiesburg--still doesn't do much for Black representation.

This is what I did:



The big annoying bit is the placement of the Golden Triangle--I ended up clipping a few precincts in Clay County to avoid an awkward prong into Attala or Winston. Thankfully they're on the rural western end, away from West Point, so hopefully it's not too much of a party foul.

MS-3 is a bit ugly, but that's forced by the geography in most maps anyway. It's fairly safe Republican but could go to a Doug Jones type in a very good environment. 

Splitting the Hattiesburg area results in another majority-minority district, though I admit it's a longshot at least until later in the decade.

[Torie]

I managed a modest improvement on my prior map:



MS-02's Black VAP increases a hair to 61.4%, and now only a single county (Lowndes) is split.

That is THE map. We don't like erosity from this particular quarter. Kudos.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I managed a modest improvement on my prior map:



MS-02's Black VAP increases a hair to 61.4%, and now only a single county (Lowndes) is split.

That is THE map. We don't like erosity from this particular quarter. Kudos.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cbcc96d5-6af5-414c-bbeb-8cf67e8f3b31
How does this compare?

[Torie]

I managed a modest improvement on my prior map:



MS-02's Black VAP increases a hair to 61.4%, and now only a single county (Lowndes) is split.

That is THE map. We don't like erosity from this particular quarter. Kudos.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cbcc96d5-6af5-414c-bbeb-8cf67e8f3b31
How does this compare?

That is OK from an erosity standpoint.

[Greedo punched first]

Check out my gerrymander that violates the VRA!

[Frodo]

The Mississippi Republican Party is most likely maxed out in the Senate, but there are still gains to be made in the House.  Apparently, they could win up to 80 seats after next year's elections (up from 77 currently):

Redistricting gives GOP chance to increase super majorities

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Mississippi Republican Party is most likely maxed out in the Senate, but there are still gains to be made in the House.  Apparently, they could win up to 80 seats after next year's elections (up from 77 currently):

Redistricting gives GOP chance to increase super majorities

Part of me wonders if this will backfire horribly by the end of the decade, if the state trends significantly towards Democrats.

[Skill and Chance]

The Mississippi Republican Party is most likely maxed out in the Senate, but there are still gains to be made in the House.  Apparently, they could win up to 80 seats after next year's elections (up from 77 currently):

Redistricting gives GOP chance to increase super majorities

Part of me wonders if this will backfire horribly by the end of the decade, if the state trends significantly towards Democrats.

Plausible.  Mississippi and Louisiana, for that matter, get very attractive for Democrats with even a modest decline in racial polarization.  This would be accentuated in a legislative body with many VRA districts. 

However, note there are only 2 elections in both states on this set of maps due to the 4 year terms for everything.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Mississippi Republican Party is most likely maxed out in the Senate, but there are still gains to be made in the House.  Apparently, they could win up to 80 seats after next year's elections (up from 77 currently):

Redistricting gives GOP chance to increase super majorities

Part of me wonders if this will backfire horribly by the end of the decade, if the state trends significantly towards Democrats.

Plausible.  Mississippi and Louisiana, for that matter, get very attractive for Democrats with even a modest decline in racial polarization.  This would be accentuated in a legislative body with many VRA districts. 

However, note there are only 2 elections in both states on this set of maps due to the 4 year terms for everything.

What years will the districts on the maps be up in? 2022, 2026, and 2030? If so, that would total three.

[Frodo]

The Mississippi Republican Party is most likely maxed out in the Senate, but there are still gains to be made in the House.  Apparently, they could win up to 80 seats after next year's elections (up from 77 currently):

Redistricting gives GOP chance to increase super majorities

Part of me wonders if this will backfire horribly by the end of the decade, if the state trends significantly towards Democrats.

Plausible.  Mississippi and Louisiana, for that matter, get very attractive for Democrats with even a modest decline in racial polarization.  This would be accentuated in a legislative body with many VRA districts. 

However, note there are only 2 elections in both states on this set of maps due to the 4 year terms for everything.

What years will the districts on the maps be up in? 2022, 2026, and 2030? If so, that would total three.

Mississippi holds statewide elections in odd-numbered years. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Mississippi Republican Party is most likely maxed out in the Senate, but there are still gains to be made in the House.  Apparently, they could win up to 80 seats after next year's elections (up from 77 currently):

Redistricting gives GOP chance to increase super majorities

Part of me wonders if this will backfire horribly by the end of the decade, if the state trends significantly towards Democrats.

Plausible.  Mississippi and Louisiana, for that matter, get very attractive for Democrats with even a modest decline in racial polarization.  This would be accentuated in a legislative body with many VRA districts. 

However, note there are only 2 elections in both states on this set of maps due to the 4 year terms for everything.

What years will the districts on the maps be up in? 2022, 2026, and 2030? If so, that would total three.

Mississippi holds statewide elections in odd-numbered years. 

D'oh. I forgot about that.
That does total three elections though (provided they don't pass new maps before the 2031 elections). 2023, 2027, and 2031. If the 2031 elections happen, that might be quite telling about the potential Ds have on state legislative level.