2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Mississippi

[If my soul was made of stone]

Only two counties are split here (Clay and Panola), and all incumbents are protected:



MS-02 is 60.6% Black VAP.

[Alcibiades]

MS-02 had heavy population loss in the Census, while all of the other three districts grew slightly, so I assume it will have to grow significantly in area, while still remaining VRA-compliant. Disco’s map would suggest that that is still perfectly possible, though.

[patzer]

This is very much not feasible, but for fun I thought I'd see how extreme of a gerrymander I could manage to make. Here's the result.

Districts are D+7, D+6, R+0.4, and R+69
Three majority-minority districts
In a state as inelastic as MS, this would likely in practice be 2 safe D, 1 safe R, and a swing district.

[Skill and Chance]

MS-02 had heavy population loss in the Census, while all of the other three districts grew slightly, so I assume it will have to grow significantly in area, while still remaining VRA-compliant. Disco’s map would suggest that that is still perfectly possible, though.

BTW this is why I just do not understand all the Dem excitement about MS. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

MS-02 had heavy population loss in the Census, while all of the other three districts grew slightly, so I assume it will have to grow significantly in area, while still remaining VRA-compliant. Disco’s map would suggest that that is still perfectly possible, though.

BTW this is why I just do not understand all the Dem excitement about MS. 

I don't know why population loss in MS-02 would be of much relevance to how MS votes statewide anymore than, say, actual statewide elections (some of which do show clear D trends - look at how Mike Espy did).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I've drawn a gerrymander of the MS State House that DRA rates as anti-majoritarian. Will post shortly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b90c602c-76b8-48e7-9a9f-c7ce8c686915

[BoiseBoy]

We have our first look at the congressional map. This will be taken up the first week of the 2022 legislative session.

https://twitter.com/leeosanderlin/status/1471149903397199872?s=21

[lfromnj]

A tiny bit of Hinds is still in the Rankin district FYI.

[Roll Roons]

So basically least change with the exception of Hinds?

[Oryxslayer]

A tiny bit of Hinds is still in the Rankin district FYI.

[BoiseBoy]

House passes the single map proposal we have seen. Now moves to the Senate.

https://twitter.com/EWagsterPettus/status/1479133719269105668?s=20

[lfromnj]

House passes the single map proposal we have seen. Now moves to the Senate.

https://twitter.com/EWagsterPettus/status/1479133719269105668?s=20

Aren't the 2 maps basically the same ?
Why the disagreement here ?

[BoiseBoy]

The NAACP plan was pretty much a least change map:


The actual map packs a few more majority black counties into MS-2:

[lfromnj]

The third is safe R in either map. Kind of weird that there was no agreement here.

[Minnesota Mike]

Magnolia 1 on DRA.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/be22589c-7fa0-4797-a682-44d9799e30c7

[Antonio the Sixth]

Good map honestly. Nothing worth criticizing. Of course the GOP's hands are tied by the VRA here.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Good map honestly. Nothing worth criticizing. Of course the GOP's hands are tied by the VRA here.

I think this map is bad based on COI, but is a wash politically. If I were drawing the map based on COI without consideration to partisanship, there would be 2 Safe R seats, and 2 Swing seats, the swing seats being around Biden + 2.2 and Biden + 2.5. It would have the potential to either double or nothing Black Representation in the state, depending on how strong their turnout was in any given year.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Good map honestly. Nothing worth criticizing. Of course the GOP's hands are tied by the VRA here.

I think this map is bad based on COI, but is a wash politically. If I were drawing the map based on COI without consideration to partisanship, there would be 2 Safe R seats, and 2 Swing seats, the swing seats being around Biden + 2.2 and Biden + 2.5. It would have the potential to either double or nothing Black Representation in the state, depending on how strong their turnout was in any given year.

I feel like the Black population along the Mississippi is a COI in its own right, and diluting it by splitting into two districts doesn't feel right to me.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Good map honestly. Nothing worth criticizing. Of course the GOP's hands are tied by the VRA here.

I think this map is bad based on COI, but is a wash politically. If I were drawing the map based on COI without consideration to partisanship, there would be 2 Safe R seats, and 2 Swing seats, the swing seats being around Biden + 2.2 and Biden + 2.5. It would have the potential to either double or nothing Black Representation in the state, depending on how strong their turnout was in any given year.

Well, I'd say that the risk of having no Black congressional representation at all from the nation's Blackest state vastly outweighs concerns about COI or partisanship or the possibility that there might be more (which would surely require an environment where a larger-than-average share of the white population is voting Democratic given likely differences in turnout).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good map honestly. Nothing worth criticizing. Of course the GOP's hands are tied by the VRA here.

I think this map is bad based on COI, but is a wash politically. If I were drawing the map based on COI without consideration to partisanship, there would be 2 Safe R seats, and 2 Swing seats, the swing seats being around Biden + 2.2 and Biden + 2.5. It would have the potential to either double or nothing Black Representation in the state, depending on how strong their turnout was in any given year.

I feel like the Black population along the Mississippi is a COI in its own right, and diluting it by splitting into two districts doesn't feel right to me.

The obvious solution is to have most black areas outside of Metro Jackson be in one district, and then have a dedicated Metro Jackson CD with at least all of Hinds, Pearl.
It should be noted that the Black % is, by a very slim margin, closer to 2 seats than 1 (out of 4).

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Good map honestly. Nothing worth criticizing. Of course the GOP's hands are tied by the VRA here.

I think this map is bad based on COI, but is a wash politically. If I were drawing the map based on COI without consideration to partisanship, there would be 2 Safe R seats, and 2 Swing seats, the swing seats being around Biden + 2.2 and Biden + 2.5. It would have the potential to either double or nothing Black Representation in the state, depending on how strong their turnout was in any given year.

I feel like the Black population along the Mississippi is a COI in its own right, and diluting it by splitting into two districts doesn't feel right to me.

I would not split the Black population along the Mississippi. The problem is that in order to draw a Safe D seat, you either have to split that or split the Jackson Metro, neither of which would be ideal from COI. The Biden + 2.2 seat I described would be a Majority non-Hispanic Black VAP seat along the Delta, and the Biden + 2.5 seat I described would be a seat with no majority racial group with the Jackson Metro.

[Oryxslayer]

Good map honestly. Nothing worth criticizing. Of course the GOP's hands are tied by the VRA here.

I think this map is bad based on COI, but is a wash politically. If I were drawing the map based on COI without consideration to partisanship, there would be 2 Safe R seats, and 2 Swing seats, the swing seats being around Biden + 2.2 and Biden + 2.5. It would have the potential to either double or nothing Black Representation in the state, depending on how strong their turnout was in any given year.

I feel like the Black population along the Mississippi is a COI in its own right, and diluting it by splitting into two districts doesn't feel right to me.

The obvious solution is to have most black areas outside of Metro Jackson be in one district, and then have a dedicated Metro Jackson CD with at least all of Hinds, Pearl.
It should be noted that the Black % is, by a very slim margin, closer to 2 seats than 1 (out of 4).

Yes, but there is too much White population south of the Columbus cluster, so to link the eastern AA regions with parts of the West overpopulates the southern and underpopulates the northern white seat. One way is to have District 1 reach all the way down to the Jackson suburbs and have D3 make the crossing to the west south of the city, but that's not really reliably AA and requires squiggles to carve out places like Hattiesburg.

Of course there are many ways to make D3 more African American and marginal but still R favoring, not gerrymandered, and keep D2 safe for the African American community. But the R's won't be drawing that. And that isn't exactly a second AA seat either.

I'm sure the reason why the Dem's voted against the least change R map, while proposing their own least change map is one of principle - same as the CT situation.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Lower Black turnout dictates that a functioning Black seat should be well more than 50% VAP at any rate, so unpacking the 2nd and drawing a compact Metro Jackson seat (which I can't manage to make Dem-leaning without giving it significant portions of the Delta and thus requiring the Black seat to cross over and take in Meridian and such) is clearly not up to VRA snuff. The Jackson metro is de-facto segregated enough that it's probably worse COI to keep it whole at any rate.

[Del Tachi]

Good map honestly. Nothing worth criticizing. Of course the GOP's hands are tied by the VRA here.

I think this map is bad based on COI, but is a wash politically. If I were drawing the map based on COI without consideration to partisanship, there would be 2 Safe R seats, and 2 Swing seats, the swing seats being around Biden + 2.2 and Biden + 2.5. It would have the potential to either double or nothing Black Representation in the state, depending on how strong their turnout was in any given year.

I feel like the Black population along the Mississippi is a COI in its own right, and diluting it by splitting into two districts doesn't feel right to me.

The obvious solution is to have most black areas outside of Metro Jackson be in one district, and then have a dedicated Metro Jackson CD with at least all of Hinds, Pearl.
It should be noted that the Black % is, by a very slim margin, closer to 2 seats than 1 (out of 4).

Democrats (mostly from SWMS) actually had a redistricting plan in 2001 that would have snaked MS-01 down into Rankin/Madison to make two D-leaning seats.  Northeast conservadems and Black Dems balked and we got a Jackson + Delta district with >60% Black VAP.

This map would be the equivalent of the 2001 proposal based on 2020 numbers.  The two D-leaning districts are only plurality Black VAP however (49.3% and 49.6%) but the trends are probably better for Dems here than other Deep South VRA districts like GA-02, I'd guess.

FWIW, this alignment also double bunks Kelly and Guest so that MS-03 has more potential to elect a Black candidate of choice.  Tupelo with Jackson suburbs is obviously horrible from a COI standpoint.  

You could probably play with the map to get both seats above 50% Black VAP at the expense of cleaner lines.