2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Oklahoma (user search)
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Oklahoma (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Oklahoma  (Read 4251 times)
Idaho Conservative
BWP Conservative
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Posts: 1,234
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E: -1.00, S: 6.00

« on: August 07, 2020, 01:48:24 PM »

How likely is it they crack Tulsa?  Downtown is very easy to remove from the metro. 
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Idaho Conservative
BWP Conservative
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,234
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.00, S: 6.00

« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2020, 03:57:15 PM »

How likely is it they crack Tulsa?  Downtown is very easy to remove from the metro. 

Meh a tulsa seat is Trump +30 with the extra counties

Here is a likely map, each incumbent (except maybe Horn) stays in their district and each district is majority within the current districts.  OK-5 is still majority Oklahoma County.
1. blue Trump+29, Stitt+9
2. green Trump+50, Stitt+23
3. purple Trump+34, Stitt+12
4. red Trump+40, Stitt+13
5. yellow Trump+30, Stitt+5

OK-5 as it is now voted Trump by 13 and Edmondson by 9.  So the new OK-5 moves 17 points right for president and 14 points right in the gov race.  Horn likely wouldn't have come within single digits of winning in this configuration. 
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Idaho Conservative
BWP Conservative
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,234
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.00, S: 6.00

« Reply #2 on: February 02, 2021, 01:47:54 PM »

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, it is apparently possible to draw a slightly D-leaning seat which stretches from OKC to Tulsa:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/oklahoma/#Dem

We all know this map wouldn't be esthetically pleasing visually, but would this map really ensure a Democratic representative in this state, or could it develop into a dummymander?
how would it be a dummymander?  This is the best case for Dems, but there is zero chance of this happening.  It's weird how many Republican redistricting threads are dominated by D gerrymanders. 
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