2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Oklahoma
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Oklahoma
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Oklahoma  (Read 4142 times)
President Punxsutawney Phil
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« on: March 27, 2020, 01:37:44 PM »

Oklahoma is a state that might see the GOP see a certain gain in 2022. Kendra Horn, if she doesn't lose in 2020, might face a heavily redrawn map that cracks OKC up in multiple bits.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2020, 03:25:27 PM »

If Horn is still around, the seat is definitely getting cracked. The slightly more interesting question is what happens if she loses in 2020 - do they keep it mostly intact to preserve a district for Oklahoma County Republicans, or do they leave just enough to keep the new representative safe from a primary and crack the rest?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2020, 04:04:09 PM »

If the redistricting amendment fails to make the ballot: 5-0 R with a spiral.

If the amendment succeeds: 4 Safe R, 1 pure OKC county seat.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2020, 04:07:20 PM »

If Horn is still around, the seat is definitely getting cracked. The slightly more interesting question is what happens if she loses in 2020 - do they keep it mostly intact to preserve a district for Oklahoma County Republicans, or do they leave just enough to keep the new representative safe from a primary and crack the rest?
If Horn loses in 2020 I think they spin off the most firmly minority areas off into the Panhandle district while keeping the rest of OKC in one district.
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Water Hazard
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« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2020, 05:48:09 PM »

https://imgur.com/TwZkiQE

Don't even need to get messy or split more than 4 counties to get a safe 5-0. Trump won all of these by at least 30.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2020, 06:29:52 PM »

If Horn is still around, the seat is definitely getting cracked. The slightly more interesting question is what happens if she loses in 2020 - do they keep it mostly intact to preserve a district for Oklahoma County Republicans, or do they leave just enough to keep the new representative safe from a primary and crack the rest?
If Horn loses in 2020 I think they spin off the most firmly minority areas off into the Panhandle district while keeping the rest of OKC in one district.

That’s what Dems used to do to try and keep their hold on the Panhandle district.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #6 on: March 27, 2020, 07:02:34 PM »

If Horn is still around, the seat is definitely getting cracked. The slightly more interesting question is what happens if she loses in 2020 - do they keep it mostly intact to preserve a district for Oklahoma County Republicans, or do they leave just enough to keep the new representative safe from a primary and crack the rest?
If Horn loses in 2020 I think they spin off the most firmly minority areas off into the Panhandle district while keeping the rest of OKC in one district.

That’s what Dems used to do to try and keep their hold on the Panhandle district.
Quite ironic how the GOP might copy the same playbook today, in pursuit of a different goals.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2020, 05:49:58 PM »



Amendment is dead, Horn is officially DOA.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2020, 05:58:49 PM »



Amendment is dead, Horn is officially DOA.

What a bunch of idiots.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2020, 06:07:13 PM »



Amendment is dead, Horn is officially DOA.

What a bunch of idiots.

I mean it's hard to get signatures in the present environment. The fact that even one of the two red-state amendments (AR) made it through to the November ballot given the hurdles is surprising enough.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2020, 01:48:24 PM »

How likely is it they crack Tulsa?  Downtown is very easy to remove from the metro. 
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lfromnj
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« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2020, 01:52:38 PM »

How likely is it they crack Tulsa?  Downtown is very easy to remove from the metro. 

Meh a tulsa seat is Trump +30 with the extra counties
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2020, 03:57:15 PM »

How likely is it they crack Tulsa?  Downtown is very easy to remove from the metro. 

Meh a tulsa seat is Trump +30 with the extra counties

Here is a likely map, each incumbent (except maybe Horn) stays in their district and each district is majority within the current districts.  OK-5 is still majority Oklahoma County.
1. blue Trump+29, Stitt+9
2. green Trump+50, Stitt+23
3. purple Trump+34, Stitt+12
4. red Trump+40, Stitt+13
5. yellow Trump+30, Stitt+5

OK-5 as it is now voted Trump by 13 and Edmondson by 9.  So the new OK-5 moves 17 points right for president and 14 points right in the gov race.  Horn likely wouldn't have come within single digits of winning in this configuration. 
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Continential
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« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2021, 12:04:55 AM »



My third DRA map. A Democratic Gerrymander, because why not?
The map
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Stuart98
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« Reply #14 on: February 01, 2021, 12:10:55 AM »



My third DRA map. A Democratic Gerrymander, because why not?
The map
smh, you can draw an OK01 that looks not that much messier than yours that Edmondson won in 2018.
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TML
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« Reply #15 on: February 01, 2021, 03:04:50 AM »

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, it is apparently possible to draw a slightly D-leaning seat which stretches from OKC to Tulsa:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/oklahoma/#Dem

We all know this map wouldn't be esthetically pleasing visually, but would this map really ensure a Democratic representative in this state, or could it develop into a dummymander?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #16 on: February 01, 2021, 04:30:33 AM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f5c9d084-7e4f-4e45-9731-76f19728fe71
thoughts on this Clinton+3 OK-05?
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #17 on: February 02, 2021, 01:47:54 PM »

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, it is apparently possible to draw a slightly D-leaning seat which stretches from OKC to Tulsa:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/oklahoma/#Dem

We all know this map wouldn't be esthetically pleasing visually, but would this map really ensure a Democratic representative in this state, or could it develop into a dummymander?
how would it be a dummymander?  This is the best case for Dems, but there is zero chance of this happening.  It's weird how many Republican redistricting threads are dominated by D gerrymanders. 
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Left Wing
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« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2021, 08:27:48 PM »


Just for fun, I decided to draw a map where Drew Edmondson wins a majority of districts. He wins the first by 36 votes, the second by 7 votes and the third by 1,498 votes. All three voted for Trump in 2016 by over 20 points.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #19 on: March 04, 2021, 11:59:44 PM »

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S019
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« Reply #20 on: April 21, 2021, 02:16:03 PM »

Non-congressional news, but we have the state Senate and state House proposals from the OKGOP:

Given hefty GOP majorities in both houses and control of the governorship, these should be pretty close to the final maps.
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walleye26
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« Reply #21 on: April 21, 2021, 08:59:30 PM »

Non-congressional news, but we have the state Senate and state House proposals from the OKGOP:

Given hefty GOP majorities in both houses and control of the governorship, these should be pretty close to the final maps.


Would these maps draw more Dems out of power, or are they so bottomed out it doesn’t matter?
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #22 on: April 22, 2021, 06:02:09 AM »

Non-congressional news, but we have the state Senate and state House proposals from the OKGOP:
Given hefty GOP majorities in both houses and control of the governorship, these should be pretty close to the final maps.


Would these maps draw more Dems out of power, or are they so bottomed out it doesn’t matter?

Just eyeballing it in comparison to the precinct map of the most recent presidential election and the current state legislative map:

State House:
OKC: No change, although Districts 83 and 95, which the Dems held before 2020, have been made more Republican.
Tulsa: No change
Norman: Hard to tell, but District 45, which the Dems hold, may have been made more Republican.
Stillwater: No change
Rest of the state: Democrats no longer hold any seats outside of these four cities, but of the four which they did prior to 2020 (i.e. which they last won in 2018): Districts 1, 4 and 7 are Yellow Dog rural Eastern Oklahoma districts which are gone anyway (although the latter two have still been made slightly more Republican), while District 56 has been completely eliminated in its current form. I think the Republicans have somewhat shored up a seat in Lawton, which, while Republican held, was won by Trump by less than one point.

State Senate:
OKC: One or two of the current 5 Dem districts may have been made more Republican? It’s hard to tell.
Tulsa: District 34 was won easily by Trump, but Dems held it unopposed in 2020. It’s become slightly less Republican as it’s shrunk due to population growth. Districts 35 and 39 are a pair both narrowly won by Biden, although the latter is held by a Republican. They have been rejigged, but I can’t tell if there’s been much partisan change.
Norman: The Dem seat is actually shored up due to shrinking due to population growth.

TL;DR: The Dems are basically bottomed out, so the Republicans have not been able to get rid of any of the seats they currently hold, but a few swing districts have been made more Republican.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #23 on: April 22, 2021, 09:41:18 AM »

Word on Twitter is that these maps are essentailly incumbent protection maps and that Democrats essentially gave their blessing to them.
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Continential
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« Reply #24 on: April 22, 2021, 11:59:02 AM »

My Oklahoma D Gerrymander.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/a0f78938-5d24-43a6-9b4e-22cd44f70e30




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