2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[kwabbit]

Given the most recent Census approximations, Alabama is likely to keep its 7th seat. In a fair map, a second Black VRA should probably be drawn, but the GOP will likely keep the current arrangement of just the one if possible.

 


Above is my map with 2 Black districts.

[kwabbit]

Better map than mine. Ceding some of the Western Black Belt section to the Birmingham -based district improves the look of the map quite a bit.

[kwabbit]

I made a quick, easy map if the VRA was less strictly enforced, which may be possible with the Supreme Court arrangement. What's less possible is that it would lead to  2 Dem seats in Alabama. Both seats are around Biden +10 if I'm guessing. The Birmingham based seat is around 41% Black and the Montgomery Seat is about 48% Black. Both should be performing and elect Black Democrats, although they could be won by Republicans in extreme wave years.

No chance this is what the map looks like, but this is probably what it would like like if it was drawn in the way of the current NC map where race is less of a factor. Only 4 county splits, most of which are relatively small, the only large one being the split of Tuscaloosa county. 

[kwabbit]

And if two black performing CD's are required because two are triggered per the 50% BCVAP test, that is the kind of map that in general might well be required. But in reality, it is less likely the triggers will be found, if you have a map that does not look much like a gerrymander per se.

What's the trigger? That two 50% BCVAP could be drawn, so some attempt must be made to draw them, even if the districts don't actually reach that mark?

[kwabbit]

I actually have a similar map to you Kwabbit--here's what I have:


link

I'd rather split just Jackson county along the Tennessee river, but the precincts don't perfectly follow the river and are too big.

I put Autauga and Elmore in the 3rd district to keep the Montgomery metro together, but I could trade territory to make it more Black if there's a concern about it potentially flipping (since it's not super Democratic)

IMO the Birmingham suburb reach-around district is too much of impediment on compactness if the aim is making a map of Alabama that is compact, fair, and isn't a VRA lawsuit waiting to happen. Perhaps I should've altered my Black Belt district to be like yours and take in Pickens county and subtract Whiter parts of Tuscaloosa County to up the Black %, which might be needed to make it perform.

[kwabbit]

And if two black performing CD's are required because two are triggered per the 50% BCVAP test, that is the kind of map that in general might well be required. But in reality, it is less likely the triggers will be found, if you have a map that does not look much like a gerrymander per se.

What's the trigger? That two 50% BCVAP could be drawn, so some attempt must be made to draw them, even if the districts don't actually reach that mark?

When two triggers are in play, you have to draw two performing black CD's, but not have excess blacks in the CD that are not needed for a performing CD, pursuant to a gerrymander. But if not a gerrymander, excess blacks are OK.

That's my take of what it all comes down to, anyway.

I'm still confused what a trigger is exactly though. Can you explain what you mean when you say that?

[kwabbit]

So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

Probably this whole process repeats itself. Worth noting that representation is *not* based on proportionality but if there is a concentrated and functioning minority area that is large enough to be a congressional seat (in glazing over but that’s the gist). If Alabama looses a seat (which is unlikely imo) they still would likely be required to have two black seats as the rural blacks are entitled to a seat and the rural blacks are too.

If Alabama had lost a seat, as the census estimates had predicted for most of the decade, Milligan would’ve failed. If Alabama loses a seat in 2030 two majority Black districts will be difficult. The Black belt district would have to expand massively. A Birmingham seat would be performing but not majority Black. If AL lost a seat and the GOP drew a 5-1 it could definitely hold up.

[kwabbit]

So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

For what it's worth...it is possible to have two majority black seats with 6 seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/33d62575-40f0-49a4-a659-686e507bede3

I see two Dem seats but only one 50% BVAP seat.

Here is one that does. So, yes, it’s possible. Not good, but possible.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/faa3d1ad-67af-49c9-916e-26f56317a96b

The issue is that the Black Belt is depopulating and needs to take in White turf. If you extrapolate 2010-2020 population trends it becomes even more difficult to get two majority Black seats. A 2020 BVAP of 48.5% is enough for 50% in 2030, but two majority seats are not getting created without Talladega and Dothan.

[kwabbit]

So what happens if after the 2030 census, Alabama loses a seat? Obviously republicans would nuke the second black seat, but my question is, would that go against the SC ruling of would it be compliant in that case? This is assuming that the black population doesn't change much. At that point the question would be whether black people are entitled to 33% of the seats with only 25% of the population.

For what it's worth...it is possible to have two majority black seats with 6 seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/33d62575-40f0-49a4-a659-686e507bede3

I see two Dem seats but only one 50% BVAP seat.

Here is one that does. So, yes, it’s possible. Not good, but possible.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/faa3d1ad-67af-49c9-916e-26f56317a96b

The issue is that the Black Belt is depopulating and needs to take in White turf. If you extrapolate 2010-2020 population trends it becomes even more difficult to get two majority Black seats. A 2020 BVAP of 48.5% is enough for 50% in 2030, but two majority seats are not getting created without Talladega and Dothan.

2010 Populations for those districts, projected 2030 populations assuming growth proceed s at the same rate in the 2020s (it should be slower, but across the board), and seat quotas.

1: 756,589/926,784/1.050
2: 854,823/820,296/0.923
3: 749,784/935,205/1.060
4: 777,476/901,590/1.022
5: 806,152/869,824/0.986
6: 834,576/840,193/0.952

That's a lot of extra territory you need to take in. I don't think a map that erose is plausibly mandated under Gingles unless the composition of the court changes.

Alabama is going to keep a 7th district in all likelihood so it's not an issue but if the AL GOP went with a 5-1 in 2030 if AL lost a seat I think it would hold up in court.

[kwabbit]

Basically y'all are proving what I said.  The maps are absolutely fine, Dems just want another seat because they can no longer win the 2nd or 5th.  

So they want another do nothing CBC rubber stamp like Sewell.
You know instead of the moderate they would have to run to make the 2nd and 5th competitive again. 

Alabama's black population has generally been increasing. Back in 2010, a VRA challenge couldn't really effectively be triggered because drawing 50% black seats was basically impossible within any reason. On the 2020 census, 2 majority black seats was possible.

I agree the VRA is imperfect, but it's what we have. If we had more national safeguards on the redistricting process to ensure groups couldn't be cracked to oblivion, then I think the VRA would no longer be needed. But because Republicans in congress have refused to even suggest any redistricting reform, the VRA is what we have.

Your first point is false. Try it out in DRA; drawing two 50% Black seats was easier in 2010 because the Black Belt had a higher population. The Black population in Alabama has increased as a proportion of the VAP, but it has become more diffuse so seats are now harder to draw.

I don't know why legal challenges didn't succeed in 2010, but the reality is basically the same.

Two Black Seats Under 2010 Census