2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[EastAnglianLefty]

Alabama most likely loses a seat at the census, so it's probably worth creating a megathread for it.

By and large, it's not particularly interesting, as Democrats get the VRA districts and then you have to work pretty hard to get a seat that would have been competitive at any time this millennium, let alone now.

The major doubt (aside from whether it gets 6 or 7 districts) is whether the DoJ can force Alabama to draw a second VRA district. It's trivially simple to do this on a seven district map and I'm a little surprised there wasn't a fight over this last time round. It's a little trickier on a six district map, but here's an attempt:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/841318a9-c025-42ad-80fb-33bf61f34ce0

The 5th takes in Birmingham and the western end of the black belt, the new VRA district is the 6th which stretches from Mobile to Montgomery. Both are narrowly black majority (50.9% and 50.2% respectively) on 2016 numbers, but depending on what's happening with population changes in the Black Belt you might need messier lines to keep them that way.

This then puts two Republican representatives out of a job. The new congresscritter for the 2nd is probably out of a job (and likely would be even if there was only VRA seat) as their territory is split between Byrne, Rogers and the new VRA seat. The other victim is Gary Palmer, who is best relatively junior and in the wrong place, so his territory is divided up between Aderholt and Rogers. If Aderholt were to retire, it would be possible to keep Palmer's base together and combine it with most of Aderholt's district, but even then he'd be vulnerable to a regionally-based primary.

Thoughts?

[EastAnglianLefty]

The 2nd actually looks pretty difficult to cut if you're keeping pretty much the same lines for the VRA district. If the VRA district has to stretch from Birmingham to Montgomery via the western border of the state, then the Mobile district can't get into SE Alabama. Assuming that geography forces the 5th to remain much as it now is, the most natural map has Rogers' seat being carved up between either Aderholt, Palmer and the new 2nd district congresscritter, or just between Aderholt and the new rep.

Something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::1c06c492-90b1-4e2e-8915-909ced77747e

Obviously, there's no necessary reason you need to pack the VRA district as much as it currently is, because none of the Republican seats are close to competitive, but Alabama is going to Alabama.

[EastAnglianLefty]

When it comes to Alabama redistricting, I'm of the opinion that there should be a Jefferson County based district, a rural/Montgomery VRA seat, a Huntsville/Northern Alabama seat, a Mobile based seat, and the rest I don't care about. Obviously Alabama republicans would not allow this and Democrats are satisfied with the current VRA seat that reaches into Birmingham, but I don't like splitting the major urban center of any state two ways, as the current Alabama map does.

If you draw the VRA seat just in the black belt, it'll be like mine.  Some people expressed concerns over its legality.

This is straightforwardly untrue. It took me about five minutes to draw this, which stays well away from Jefferson County and is safely Democratic: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f6d2da4-b436-434e-83b3-d712ab60bcce

[EastAnglianLefty]

When it comes to Alabama redistricting, I'm of the opinion that there should be a Jefferson County based district, a rural/Montgomery VRA seat, a Huntsville/Northern Alabama seat, a Mobile based seat, and the rest I don't care about. Obviously Alabama republicans would not allow this and Democrats are satisfied with the current VRA seat that reaches into Birmingham, but I don't like splitting the major urban center of any state two ways, as the current Alabama map does.

If you draw the VRA seat just in the black belt, it'll be like mine.  Some people expressed concerns over its legality.

This is straightforwardly untrue. It took me about five minutes to draw this, which stays well away from Jefferson County and is safely Democratic: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f6d2da4-b436-434e-83b3-d712ab60bcce

not much more dem than mine.  Also, Tuscaloosa isnt much more black belt than Birmingham

D+6 versus D+2. Do you ever argue in good faith?

[EastAnglianLefty]

There are a dozen seats that are D+6; In the last 14 years, Republicans have represented maybe half of one (if we count the seat that Allen West won in 2010 as the predecessor to the current FL-22, which is questionable). It's not lean D.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I think if you want to argue that the electoral behaviour of Miami Cubans is comparable to that of black Alabamans, I may take you exactly as seriously as I did before.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Its not hyperpartisan to argue against a split of the Mobile area.. Its literally D partisan hackishness to demand the split of region so they can get another congressional seat in Alabama. There is 0 chance for it in the current Alabama district  courts/11th circuit/SCOTUS . And so far recent court precedence at SCOTUS has taken more of a liking for actual communities when forming VRA districts which is why VA03 and NC12 were cancelled.

It's absolutely hyper-partisan to argue that a seven seat Alabama map where you can easily create two Majority-Minority districts with over 50% AA CVAP should only have one majority-minority district b/c you think it would likely lead to Republicans losing a seat.  NC-12 and VA-3 were drawn as racial gerrymanders designed to dilute minority representation.  For example, VA-3 being canceled led to two AA districts in VA.  IIRC, NC-12 was also scrapped b/c it was designed as a racial gerrymander to dilute minority representation (if memory serves, there were even e-mails from a GOP redistricting operative indicating this was the case in NC, but I could be mistaken).  

There's no real argument against drawing two majority-minority seats if Alabama keeps its 7th district other than "racial gerrymanders are okay as long as it helps the Republican Party politically."  I mean, if you think the Justices on the pertinent Courts are so partisan that they'll subscribe to that view then fair enough, I suppose.  But let's not pretend this is about anything other than Republican partisanship.

NC12/VA03 aren't 2010 Racial Gerrymanders. They are leftovers/vestiges from Bush/Barr 1990 lawsuits working with Southern black Democrats to increase Black and Republican representation within the South by streching the VRA.. NC Democrats drew the same NC 12 in 2002 to 2010 and the 1990s. The GOP drew NC 12 like that because it was precedent, there isn't any need to put part of a sink with the Greensboro area because the surrounding area has always been very Republican. VA03 did give the GOP a definite partisan advantage however. Either way with SCOTUS cancelling districts that connected Charlotte and Greensboro or Richmond and the Hampton Roads they certainly aren't going to start demanding the Mobile area be split. The same goes in Louisiana, a 2nd VRA district is also very unlikely there. Instead expect a fair map in Louisiana that focuses on a  Lean to Likely R district based in Baton Rouge.

Ironically the old NC Map would have been better for NC Democrats in 2018 with them certainly flipping NC09 and probably flipping NC02 as both of them voted for Biden !.

The existence of the present NC-6 does constitute a fairly significant flaw in your argument.