2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[Idaho Conservative]

While 6-0 would certainly get struck down, here's something that could work.  AL-2 is plurality black but only D+2.  Technically the black candidate of choice is likely to win, but this district could "fail" as a vra district in a low turnout midterm.  Plus, a lot cleaner than the current map.  This is a lot more likely to hold up in court than a blatant 6-0, particularly if a black candidate wins in 2022.  It's a compact district and could pass the gingles test.
1 R+18
2 D+2 (Clinton+4)
3 R+18
4 R+17
5 R+18
6 R+18

[Idaho Conservative]

While 6-0 would certainly get struck down, here's something that could work.  AL-2 is plurality black but only D+2.  Technically the black candidate of choice is likely to win, but this district could "fail" as a vra district in a low turnout midterm.  Plus, a lot cleaner than the current map.  This is a lot more likely to hold up in court than a blatant 6-0, particularly if a black candidate wins in 2022.  It's a compact district and could pass the gingles test.
1 R+18
2 D+2 (Clinton+4)
3 R+18
4 R+17
5 R+18
6 R+18

It might pass the Gingles test, but this Supreme Court will still not uphold such a map. Gingles isn’t the only test, or even the most recent case. Thomas and Gorsuch crossed over in the Virginia House of Delegates case last year. That map also has a decent chance of electing a white Democrat.

The Dem primary would be mainly black in that AL 2.  Very unlikely to elect a white dem. But of it did, he would be the black's candidate of choice.  Also, why did they strike down the VA map?  Because the districts weren't black enough?

[Idaho Conservative]

When it comes to Alabama redistricting, I'm of the opinion that there should be a Jefferson County based district, a rural/Montgomery VRA seat, a Huntsville/Northern Alabama seat, a Mobile based seat, and the rest I don't care about. Obviously Alabama republicans would not allow this and Democrats are satisfied with the current VRA seat that reaches into Birmingham, but I don't like splitting the major urban center of any state two ways, as the current Alabama map does.

If you draw the VRA seat just in the black belt, it'll be like mine.  Some people expressed concerns over its legality.

[Idaho Conservative]

When it comes to Alabama redistricting, I'm of the opinion that there should be a Jefferson County based district, a rural/Montgomery VRA seat, a Huntsville/Northern Alabama seat, a Mobile based seat, and the rest I don't care about. Obviously Alabama republicans would not allow this and Democrats are satisfied with the current VRA seat that reaches into Birmingham, but I don't like splitting the major urban center of any state two ways, as the current Alabama map does.

If you draw the VRA seat just in the black belt, it'll be like mine.  Some people expressed concerns over its legality.

If you push Shelby into the Birmingham seat and swap some AA Jefferson precincts into the VRA district, that could mitigate the issue.

But then Birmingham is split, like it is now.

[Idaho Conservative]

When it comes to Alabama redistricting, I'm of the opinion that there should be a Jefferson County based district, a rural/Montgomery VRA seat, a Huntsville/Northern Alabama seat, a Mobile based seat, and the rest I don't care about. Obviously Alabama republicans would not allow this and Democrats are satisfied with the current VRA seat that reaches into Birmingham, but I don't like splitting the major urban center of any state two ways, as the current Alabama map does.

If you draw the VRA seat just in the black belt, it'll be like mine.  Some people expressed concerns over its legality.

This is straightforwardly untrue. It took me about five minutes to draw this, which stays well away from Jefferson County and is safely Democratic: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f6d2da4-b436-434e-83b3-d712ab60bcce

not much more dem than mine.  Also, Tuscaloosa isnt much more black belt than Birmingham

[Idaho Conservative]

When it comes to Alabama redistricting, I'm of the opinion that there should be a Jefferson County based district, a rural/Montgomery VRA seat, a Huntsville/Northern Alabama seat, a Mobile based seat, and the rest I don't care about. Obviously Alabama republicans would not allow this and Democrats are satisfied with the current VRA seat that reaches into Birmingham, but I don't like splitting the major urban center of any state two ways, as the current Alabama map does.

If you draw the VRA seat just in the black belt, it'll be like mine.  Some people expressed concerns over its legality.

This is straightforwardly untrue. It took me about five minutes to draw this, which stays well away from Jefferson County and is safely Democratic: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f6d2da4-b436-434e-83b3-d712ab60bcce

not much more dem than mine.  Also, Tuscaloosa isnt much more black belt than Birmingham

D+6 versus D+2. Do you ever argue in good faith?

both lean/likely.  Do you ever argue in good faith?

[Idaho Conservative]

There are a dozen seats that are D+6; In the last 14 years, Republicans have represented maybe half of one (if we count the seat that Allen West won in 2010 as the predecessor to the current FL-22, which is questionable). It's not lean D.

FL-26......

[Idaho Conservative]

I think if you want to argue that the electoral behaviour of Miami Cubans is comparable to that of black Alabamans, I may take you exactly as seriously as I did before.

Non-whites turn out less in midterms. 

[Idaho Conservative]

Is it possible to draw two VRA districts in Alabama?

Yeah but doesn't make too much sense.

Why doesn't it make sense. How easy would it be to draw such a map. Is it easy to draw two compact districts that are at least 52% in CVAP?

Because Republicans draw the lines.  If the courts don't require 2 on a 7 district map, they wouldn't on a 6 district map