2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[tschandler]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6dc30ccd-21ad-4b65-99a8-737520e47924

Here's my particularly vicious take on what a non-VRA map would look like.



AL-01: Trump 61-39
AL-02: Trump 63-37
AL-03: Trump 60-40
AL-04: Trump 62-38
AL-05: Trump 66-34
AL-06: Trump 64-36

Honestly, this looks like an Alabama map from the 1960s. Which makes sense, given the intention of the Dixiecrats back then and how they dovetail with modern Republican's desire to limit AA voting power. All of these districts are fairly trend-proof and even where they are not they are anchored by crimson red areas, especially in the north where the old AL-04 is split up to keep all seats at Trump 60 and above.

Absolutely no idea who would be the Congressman for the AL-06 as a resident.

[tschandler]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6dc30ccd-21ad-4b65-99a8-737520e47924

Here's my particularly vicious take on what a non-VRA map would look like.



AL-01: Trump 61-39
AL-02: Trump 63-37
AL-03: Trump 60-40
AL-04: Trump 62-38
AL-05: Trump 66-34
AL-06: Trump 64-36

Honestly, this looks like an Alabama map from the 1960s. Which makes sense, given the intention of the Dixiecrats back then and how they dovetail with modern Republican's desire to limit AA voting power. All of these districts are fairly trend-proof and even where they are not they are anchored by crimson red areas, especially in the north where the old AL-04 is split up to keep all seats at Trump 60 and above.

Absolutely no idea who would be the Congressman for the AL-06 as a resident.

Roy Moore (R-Gadsden).

Seriously

[tschandler]

Was the functionally identical 2000 map also racist?  It's demographics are functionally identical.  And it was written by Democrats.

Or did Democrats become unelectable in the 2nd and 5th because politics became nationalized?

[tschandler]

Basically y'all are proving what I said.  The maps are absolutely fine, Dems just want another seat because they can no longer win the 2nd or 5th.  

So they want another do nothing CBC rubber stamp like Sewell.
You know instead of the moderate they would have to run to make the 2nd and 5th competitive again. 

[tschandler]

Basically y'all are proving what I said.  The maps are absolutely fine, Dems just want another seat because they can no longer win the 2nd or 5th.  

So they want another do nothing CBC rubber stamp like Sewell.
You know instead of the moderate they would have to run to make the 2nd and 5th competitive again. 

Alabama's black population has generally been increasing. Back in 2010, a VRA challenge couldn't really effectively be triggered because drawing 50% black seats was basically impossible within any reason. On the 2020 census, 2 majority black seats was possible.

I agree the VRA is imperfect, but it's what we have. If we had more national safeguards on the redistricting process to ensure groups couldn't be cracked to oblivion, then I think the VRA would no longer be needed. But because Republicans in congress have refused to even suggest any redistricting reform, the VRA is what we have.

Your first point is false. Try it out in DRA; drawing two 50% Black seats was easier in 2010 because the Black Belt had a higher population. The Black population in Alabama has increased as a proportion of the VAP, but it has become more diffuse so seats are now harder to draw.

I don't know why legal challenges didn't succeed in 2010, but the reality is basically the same.

Two Black Seats Under 2010 Census

They didn't pursue it because they had the 2nd, 5th, and 7th already. 

[tschandler]

Again what is wrong with a map that district by district is demographically consistent with the 2000 map? 

[tschandler]

If the proposed maps are racist then why wasn't the Dem drawn 2000 map? 

[tschandler]

Yet again progressives are saying the quiet part out loud.  They moved far too left to reach their old voters in the 2nd and 5th. 

They were absolutely fine with the maps until they couldn't win said districts.

Somehow they get one of them back with absolutely no effort on their part politically.   So lawfare cloaked in BS about race.

[tschandler]

Funny y'all have no problems with state governments ignoring Bruen.

[tschandler]

Federal judges dictating politics is insane.  Similar maps were fine until Democrats couldn't reach the median voter in the state anymore. 

[tschandler]

Politics have went utterly insane.  Somehow maps that were fine when Democrats drew them are now racial gerrymandering.  And the solution to that is more racial gerrymandering?   

Because the Democrats don't want to reach the median voter in the 2nd or the 5th districts? 

[tschandler]

Politics have went utterly insane.  Somehow maps that were fine when Democrats drew them are now racial gerrymandering.  And the solution to that is more racial gerrymandering?   

Because the Democrats don't want to reach the median voter in the 2nd or the 5th districts? 

If you knew history instead of just "EVERYONE HATES REPUBLICANS" logic you'd know that when VRA districts started being enforced in the 1992 elections that it disproportionately effected Southern Democrats who drew districts to keep White Democrats in office. The 7th district used to elected a White Democrat named Claude Harris Jr. and before that it was *gasps* Richard Shelby when he was still a Democrat.

Democrats trying to reach the median voter in the 5th or the old 2nd is pointless when they can push for a Black majority district that should have existed years ago. The Black population of Alabama is 26% which means that 1.8% of the congressional seats should be Black majority and with rounding that equals 2 seats.

And the 2010 Map was completely fine (and identical demographics wise) to the legislature drawn map.  It was even approved by noted White Supremacist Eric Holder.

Progressives using Lawfare because they can't win the 2nd and 5th instead of you know running moderates. 

[tschandler]

For the bajllionith time; just cause no one said anything doesn’t mean it was ok.

It was perfectly fine until the Democrats lost control is what you are saying.