2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[Greedo punched first]

Looking at the Alabama congressional delegation, it seems very unlikely than any of the Republicans would willingly retire.

Unless I am mistaken, doesn't this mean that either two of them would be forced to run in a primary against each other, or one of them would be a sacrificial lamb that inevitably loses to the Democrat in the new district?

The expectation is that the district 1 and 2 incumbents will be paired, and that they will run against each other.  Partially cause one is in Dothan and the other is in a red precinct west of Mobile, and partially cause the new district 1 usually has similar numbers of GOP voters pulled from both prior districts.  However,  there are configurations that pair 2 and 3 together.

There are even configurations which doom the incumbent of the 5th. I do not expect this to happen though

That is illegal because the Huntsville district isn't reasonably compact.

[The Mikado]

Can just anyone submit a map?

Yes but I suspect it's for show, and if it isn’t, solely dra linked maps will likely be chucked on quantity.

This isn't disagreeing with "for show," but it can be for show and not fake at the same time. State governments love going "and THIS map was submitted by a local 15 year old in Mobile who has taken a strong interest in local affairs" and it's literally just the map they wanted to begin with.

[Oryxslayer]

The deadline to submit public maps was last week. This Thursday the reapportionment committee will meet for the second time since finding itself forced back into session, and the last scheduled time until next weeks special session reconvenes both chambers in full.

The first meeting of the committee previously was initially focused on the procedures of the body, and then spent the rest of the time devoted to hearing from the plaintiffs and related groups. There is a chance this meeting they cycle through the public maps, and there is a decent chance we will see them vote to approve the map which will go before the legislature. Unless the plan is to do nothing and punt to a court-led redraw. 

[Torie]

And you all thought the Dems might pick up a seat in AL out of all this litigation. Silly boys.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1uQMqkLjKw1ghugljSU6N02yGbWRmMmPO/view

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

And you all thought the Dems might pick up a seat in AL out of all this litigation. Silly boys.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1uQMqkLjKw1ghugljSU6N02yGbWRmMmPO/view

The part of this that tries to argue that there is no racialy polarized voting in Alabama is among the most frustratingly evil thing i've ever have to read. Seriously if you feel like giving yourself a headache go and read it.

[GALeftist]

And you all thought the Dems might pick up a seat in AL out of all this litigation. Silly boys.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1uQMqkLjKw1ghugljSU6N02yGbWRmMmPO/view

This was probably the most risible bit for me:

The Voting Rights Act, as understood to this point, does not require proportionality or districts that contain less than a majority of one minority group so Alabama probably is not required to draw either version.

Regarding the point that non-majority districts aren't protected, so Alabama can't be compelled to draw an "opportunity district" – OK, fair enough. The first point though is transparently bonkers. OK, so proportionality isn't required – so are *any* majority-minority districts ever required? If Alabama axed AL-07, would that also be legal? This is simply not engaging with the law as it exists.

[Nyvin]

And you all thought the Dems might pick up a seat in AL out of all this litigation. Silly boys.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1uQMqkLjKw1ghugljSU6N02yGbWRmMmPO/view

The part of this that tries to argue that there is no racialy polarized voting in Alabama is among the most frustratingly evil thing i've ever have to read. Seriously if you feel like giving yourself a headache go and read it.

Yeah, even the most partisan R court in the country would laugh at this, it just goes against any semblance of common sense, let alone legal analysis -

Alabama may also not have legally significant racially polarized voting any longer. Many southern states with similar histories and partisan splits as Alabama have elected minority candidates running for statewide offices.

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder, the real effect of us not seeing anything emerge from the special session is this just takes another month to get a final map, only this time via courts and masters. Every time in federal court partisans throw away the one opportunity at drawing a map most but not all of their incumbents will like - no matter if its out of principle or an attempt to dissuade action - they end up getting screwed when the court makes changes to districts politicians would never have. Yes this history also includes a good deal of Dem-drawn maps across the south which ran afoul of Racial Gerrymandering suits 1-3 decades ago.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

And you all thought the Dems might pick up a seat in AL out of all this litigation. Silly boys.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1uQMqkLjKw1ghugljSU6N02yGbWRmMmPO/view

This seems as watertight as a colander.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Reminder, the real effect of us not seeing anything emerge from the special session is this just takes another month to get a final map, only this time via courts and masters. Every time in federal court partisans throw away the one opportunity at drawing a map most but not all of their incumbents will like - no matter if its out of principle or an attempt to dissuade action - they end up getting screwed when the court makes changes to districts politicians would never have. Yes this history also includes a good deal of Dem-drawn maps across the south which ran afoul of Racial Gerrymandering suits 1-3 decades ago.

It almost feels like they do this on purpose at times, they’d rather not lose face by capitulating themselves, instead forcing the courts to do it for them. Perhaps in cases like Alabama they’d also rather the courts do the dirty work of screwing over an incumbent while they keep their hands clean.

[Tintrlvr]

Reminder, the real effect of us not seeing anything emerge from the special session is this just takes another month to get a final map, only this time via courts and masters. Every time in federal court partisans throw away the one opportunity at drawing a map most but not all of their incumbents will like - no matter if its out of principle or an attempt to dissuade action - they end up getting screwed when the court makes changes to districts politicians would never have. Yes this history also includes a good deal of Dem-drawn maps across the south which ran afoul of Racial Gerrymandering suits 1-3 decades ago.

It almost feels like they do this on purpose at times, they’d rather not lose face by capitulating themselves, instead forcing the courts to do it for them. Perhaps in cases like Alabama they’d also rather the courts do the dirty work of screwing over an incumbent while they keep their hands clean.

This was my first thought. No one wants to make enemies, and here there's no partisan advantage to controlling the redraw vs. the courts.

[Oryxslayer]

No state-drawn map was presented by the committee today. The Committee started the meeting by adopting the rules and guidelines for said process. The chair made it clear that a map would be presented for voting by the committee on Monday 10am when the full chambers reconvene. Everyone will see it at the same time, no public input.

Beyond that, the public hearing was relatively uneventful. General comments and statements were mostly same as before, focusing on technical communities and definitions, mostly from African Americans. However there did seem to be a concentrated effort by Dothan area officials to maintain District 2 in some form as it is, without stating it. "Keep the SE whole and maintain links with Montgomery." Baldwin County GOP Chair also spoke against the Supreme Court's findings that Mobile-Baldwin is not the type of COI which is superior to VRA guidelines.

Discussion on specific maps was limited to the same maps seen before from either the Milligan or Singleton (whole county) plaintiffs. Complaints from one African American member of the body that the process is going to be opaque with the GOP majority deciding things in a backroom and then passing them with little public comment.

Chair mentioned that they received a deluge of public map submissions. He made the excuse of a short time-frame, and how many maps needed to be converted into the state program. What this tells me is if anyone just submitted a map from their favorite public redistricting program and nothing else is going to get binned, unless the majority's mappers liked the proposed lines and will use it as part of their templates.


Nobody at the meeting at either side of the podium made any reference or hinted towards the Copium sent out by NRRT yesterday.

However, many, including the plaintiffs repeated that the state is simply getting the first opportunity to remedy their violations and provide for access based on RPV. They repeated that failure to draw a map or provide for a adequate and satisfactory remedy will lead to a expert map imposed, something portrayed in this context as a negative since said expert would likely be from out-of-state.

[Torie]

No state-drawn map was presented by the committee today. The Committee started the meeting by adopting the rules and guidelines for said process. The chair made it clear that a map would be presented for voting by the committee on Monday 10am when the full chambers reconvene. Everyone will see it at the same time, no public input.

Beyond that, the public hearing was relatively uneventful. General comments and statements were mostly same as before, focusing on technical communities and definitions, mostly from African Americans. However there did seem to be a concentrated effort by Dothan area officials to maintain District 2 in some form as it is, without stating it. "Keep the SE whole and maintain links with Montgomery." Baldwin County GOP Chair also spoke against the Supreme Court's findings that Mobile-Baldwin is not the type of COI which is superior to VRA guidelines.

Discussion on specific maps was limited to the same maps seen before from either the Milligan or Singleton (whole county) plaintiffs. Complaints from one African American member of the body that the process is going to be opaque with the GOP majority deciding things in a backroom and then passing them with little public comment.

Chair mentioned that they received a deluge of public map submissions. He made the excuse of a short time-frame, and how many maps needed to be converted into the state program. What this tells me is if anyone just submitted a map from their favorite public redistricting program and nothing else is going to get binned, unless the majority's mappers liked the proposed lines and will use it as part of their templates.


Nobody at the meeting at either side of the podium made any reference or hinted towards the Copium sent out by NRRT yesterday.

However, many, including the plaintiffs repeated that the state is simply getting the first opportunity to remedy their violations and provide for access based on RPV. They repeated that failure to draw a map or provide for a adequate and satisfactory remedy will lead to a expert map imposed, something portrayed in this context as a negative since said expert would likely be from out-of-state.

“Baldwin County GOP Chair also spoke against the Supreme Court's findings that Mobile-Baldwin is not the type of COI which is superior to VRA guidelines.”

Here is a map that keeps your precious COI together, while still most likely conforming to the VRA that you are blowing off per SCOTUS Mr. Baldwin County Pub Chairman. Now what?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e61004ea-fbbf-4bce-b0e2-d5dbdc435d83

[ctherainbow]

I made a map.



Dark blue district is 50.1% Black VAP, light blue district is 50.3% Black VAP.

Six county splits for seven districts, only remotely competitive district is light blue, 56.1% Biden 2020, but polarized enough to reliably elect a Black Dem.

Couple precinct splits that I could have forgone, but I chose to make them to maintain road connectivity in the district that wraps around Mobile.

Compactness isn't phenomenal, but it's tough to make them compact and also Black VAP majority.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0d91bba4-e840-4e3a-ac74-7356f10ae37d

[politicallefty]

“Baldwin County GOP Chair also spoke against the Supreme Court's findings that Mobile-Baldwin is not the type of COI which is superior to VRA guidelines.”

Here is a map that keeps your precious COI together, while still most likely conforming to the VRA that you are blowing off per SCOTUS Mr. Baldwin County Pub Chairman. Now what?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e61004ea-fbbf-4bce-b0e2-d5dbdc435d83

While it may reduce compactness, I think it'd be a stronger map under the VRA if it put Macon and Bullock Counties in AL-02. It would actually increase compactness of the Mobile-based district, though the southeastern district would be more be erose.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I made a map.



Dark blue district is 50.1% Black VAP, light blue district is 50.3% Black VAP.

Six county splits for seven districts, only remotely competitive district is light blue, 56.1% Biden 2020, but polarized enough to reliably elect a Black Dem.

Couple precinct splits that I could have forgone, but I chose to make them to maintain road connectivity in the district that wraps around Mobile.

Compactness isn't phenomenal, but it's tough to make them compact and also minority.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0d91bba4-e840-4e3a-ac74-7356f10ae37d

I personally abide by Road Connectivity but, using SC-01 2013-Present as an example, there is precedence for using somewhat suspect water continuity, especially when trying to make a VRA district. From 2013-2023 it used water adjacency to jump from sea island to sea island from Beaufort to Charleston.

[ctherainbow]

I personally abide by Road Connectivity but, using SC-01 2013-Present as an example, there is precedence for using somewhat suspect water continuity, especially when trying to make a VRA district. From 2013-2023 it used water adjacency to jump from sea island to sea island from Beaufort to Charleston.

Yeah, I considered not slicing those precincts and relying on water connectivity, but the splits only effect like 5k people, so not the biggest deal in my book, and I feel it helps maintain "coastal strip" feel of that district.

The biggest flaw with this map is that it's barely more compact than the current Alabama map.  I'm gonna have to play around and see if I can edge compactness up a little bit.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/AlaValues/status/1680918072230572033

[Oryxslayer]

First map before the committee is a punt to a Special Master.

Committee Maps will be posted here - they is seemingly an implied large number to be voted on -  as they come up on the livestream.

[Minnesota Mike]

Several of the proposed maps

https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipMT8ICQq7FckSoGwV2NTKqcIoJuIP3F6LnbTVZ8QPivE__sEpG75mzja4sg418MoQ?key=TDV5MW1yVk5rdzFJcGFzS0E5WTRnQXRBdUx5alBn

[Sol]

"Opportunity" presumably is short for "opportunity for lawsuits."

[Sol]

It seems like the theme of several of these maps is a desire to preserve some version of AL-02, though quite a few of these seem to be legally questionable.

[Oryxslayer]

The map labeled "COI" is revealed to be the map from chair Representative Pringle. It is also a punt to a special master.

[GALeftist]

To be honest, I thought Alabama was more likely to propose a map where at least they could configure the other 5 districts how they wanted, but this is just laughable. Not even one of those Con Twitter maps which have a Trump+2 50.1% Black district. Gonna get laughed out of court

[Sol]

To be honest, I thought Alabama was more likely to propose a map where at least they could configure the other 5 districts how they wanted, but this is just laughable. Not even one of those Con Twitter maps which have a Trump+2 50.1% Black district. Gonna get laughed out of court

Unlike Louisiana, there aren't that many ways to draw two Black-influence seats, so maybe they feel like it's better to get slapped down by the courts than to irritate influential Republicans in Mobile and the Wiregrass.