2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1672424009177133056?s=20

Since the case is only about how the VRA's problems with Alabama's map, I think making as few changes to the map as possible outside what is necessary to get a 2nd black district is the best way to go. If it were up to me, AL-04 and AL-05 would be drawn very differently, but they do not have to be changed to comply with the VRA and therefore shouldn't change. AL-03 and AL-06 might need to be slightly modified, but can retain their current nature.

I tend to think anything over about Biden + 10 should function fine as a black seat; firstly it's impossible to draw a purely or even mostly "rural" black belt district so rural blacks shifting right isn't the end of the world (and honestly their rightwards shift from 2008 era to now is a bit overrated imo). Ig it's simillar to how GA-02 while only Biden + 10 has always functioned just fine, and Bishop easily won in 2022. Because the district relies on cities like Columbus and Macon to remain functional, rural black counties rightwards shift has been mitigated. Any 2nd district in AL likely needs both Mobile and Montgomery.

It's funny to think after this, AL and maybe LA will prolly yield Democrats more favorable delegations than such as MO, IN, and WI (though WI map may change too).

[ProgressiveModerate]

I know it's not a new change, but what prompted them to push AL-04 to the Tennessee state line? I liked the old (pre-2023) AL-05.

I think that proposal would look a lot better if AL-03 and AL-06 swapped some territory.

That AL-02 looks like nearly a bare minimum effort. They can do better than that. If it's least change, I get it. Even so, that AL-06 is ugly.

Honestly I think we are predisposed to think new maps are "ugly" if they do anything too different. I thought many of this decades maps were "cursed" or "ugly" when they were first drawn when they were first drawn but have grown on me. On the flip side, looking back at last decades map, I find a lot of districts I never had an issue with to be ugly and weird.

I think this is where a lot of arbitrary redistricting rules come from (i.e. don't split Bucks County PA). If splitting Bucks County had been the norm for the past few redistricting cycles so that the denser and more industrial southeastern and more sparsely populated northwestern portions were kept seperate, having a whole County Bucks district would get a lot of backlash and would be seen as "ugly" and "cursed"

[ProgressiveModerate]

My proposed AL map. Aims to be least change, and tries to appease GOP by not taking in more of Birmingham's wealthier suburbs into CD-07, and doesn't change the current split of Tuscaloosa. Both 2 and 7 are majority black on VAP, and 2 would be the only remotely competitive district at Biden + 13.5. Also, all districts have 2 County splits, except districts 2 and 5 which only have 1 split.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My proposed AL map. Aims to be least change, and tries to appease GOP by not taking in more of Birmingham's wealthier suburbs into CD-07, and doesn't change the current split of Tuscaloosa. Both 2 and 7 are majority black on VAP, and 2 would be the only remotely competitive district at Biden + 13.5. Also, all districts have 2 County splits, except districts 2 and 5 which only have 1 split.

Elegant.

[politicallefty]

I know it's not a new change, but what prompted them to push AL-04 to the Tennessee state line? I liked the old (pre-2023) AL-05.

I think that proposal would look a lot better if AL-03 and AL-06 swapped some territory.

That AL-02 looks like nearly a bare minimum effort. They can do better than that. If it's least change, I get it. Even so, that AL-06 is ugly.

Honestly I think we are predisposed to think new maps are "ugly" if they do anything too different. I thought many of this decades maps were "cursed" or "ugly" when they were first drawn when they were first drawn but have grown on me. On the flip side, looking back at last decades map, I find a lot of districts I never had an issue with to be ugly and weird.

I think this is where a lot of arbitrary redistricting rules come from (i.e. don't split Bucks County PA). If splitting Bucks County had been the norm for the past few redistricting cycles so that the denser and more industrial southeastern and more sparsely populated northwestern portions were kept seperate, having a whole County Bucks district would get a lot of backlash and would be seen as "ugly" and "cursed"

That's true and definitely a valid point. We still don't split Bucks County though. I suspect Northern Alabama was split because Republicans just don't care. It was one of the most historically Democratic districts until not that long ago.

[Epaminondas]

Can just anyone submit a map?

[Oryxslayer]

Can just anyone submit a map?

Yes but I suspect it's for show, and if it isn’t, solely dra linked maps will likely be chucked on quantity.

[patzer]

Makes sense as a least change map. Especially if they're hoping demographic change might make AL-2 competitive later in the decade even though it's clearly safe now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Makes sense as a least change map. Especially if they're hoping demographic change might make AL-2 competitive later in the decade even though it's clearly safe now.

What's interesting is that AL-02 on my map (and frankly any majority black AL district on any map has gotten a bit blacker since the 2010 census; demographic change is likely favorable to Dems. It would be re-alignment (rural blacks having lower educational attainment, being more conservative on many social issues, ect) pushing the district right.

[Ferguson97]

Looking at the Alabama congressional delegation, it seems very unlikely than any of the Republicans would willingly retire.

Unless I am mistaken, doesn't this mean that either two of them would be forced to run in a primary against each other, or one of them would be a sacrificial lamb that inevitably loses to the Democrat in the new district?

[Oryxslayer]

Looking at the Alabama congressional delegation, it seems very unlikely than any of the Republicans would willingly retire.

Unless I am mistaken, doesn't this mean that either two of them would be forced to run in a primary against each other, or one of them would be a sacrificial lamb that inevitably loses to the Democrat in the new district?

The expectation is that the district 1 and 2 incumbents will be paired, and that they will run against each other.  Partially cause one is in Dothan and the other is in a red precinct west of Mobile, and partially cause the new district 1 usually has similar numbers of GOP voters pulled from both prior districts.  However,  there are configurations that pair 2 and 3 together.

[walleye26]

I know Mobile County is like R+11 or so, but is the city of Mobile itself pretty blue? A lot of the maps that I have seen have southern Mobile county south of the city. Is the southern half of the county really red? Similar to Baldwin county?

[Oryxslayer]

I know Mobile County is like R+11 or so, but is the city of Mobile itself pretty blue? A lot of the maps that I have seen have southern Mobile county south of the city. Is the southern half of the county really red? Similar to Baldwin county?

Mobile is a big county. The city and neighboring Prichard have a lot of African Americans and votes as you would expect. And as you allude to, its a area with dem-favoring geography. The city is large, the suburban areas are smaller but very red, and the city has some large r-tilting white precincts in there which would not be squiggled out to the suburbs  under fair legislative maps.

To reach the city congressionally though you need to reach through some red suburbs like  Saraland and Satsuma, so those kinda dilute the overall impact of African American voters. The cut therefore seems to be anywhere from Biden+5 to Biden+15 depending on how much red turf is in there. Whereas the remainder of the county is like Trump+50 and likely the smaller of the two - around say   140-180K compared to the arm's 220-260K.

[walleye26]

I know Mobile County is like R+11 or so, but is the city of Mobile itself pretty blue? A lot of the maps that I have seen have southern Mobile county south of the city. Is the southern half of the county really red? Similar to Baldwin county?

Mobile is a big county. The city and neighboring Prichard have a lot of African Americans and votes as you would expect. And as you allude to, its a area with dem-favoring geography. The city is large, the suburban areas are smaller but very red, and the city has some large r-tilting white precincts in there which would not be squiggled out to the suburbs  under fair legislative maps.

To reach the city congressionally though you need to reach through some red suburbs like  Saraland and Satsuma, so those kinda dilute the overall impact of African American voters. The cut therefore seems to be anywhere from Biden+5 to Biden+15 depending on how much red turf is in there. Whereas the remainder of the county is like Trump+50 and likely the smaller of the two - around say   140-180K compared to the arm's 220-260K.

Do you know if Biden won the city of Mobile proper? For the second VRA district it looks like there is a pocket that grabs Mobile proper and then a couple areas to the north and attached that to the black belt.

[Roll Roons]

I know Mobile County is like R+11 or so, but is the city of Mobile itself pretty blue? A lot of the maps that I have seen have southern Mobile county south of the city. Is the southern half of the county really red? Similar to Baldwin county?

Mobile is a big county. The city and neighboring Prichard have a lot of African Americans and votes as you would expect. And as you allude to, its a area with dem-favoring geography. The city is large, the suburban areas are smaller but very red, and the city has some large r-tilting white precincts in there which would not be squiggled out to the suburbs  under fair legislative maps.

To reach the city congressionally though you need to reach through some red suburbs like  Saraland and Satsuma, so those kinda dilute the overall impact of African American voters. The cut therefore seems to be anywhere from Biden+5 to Biden+15 depending on how much red turf is in there. Whereas the remainder of the county is like Trump+50 and likely the smaller of the two - around say   140-180K compared to the arm's 220-260K.

Do you know if Biden won the city of Mobile proper? For the second VRA district it looks like there is a pocket that grabs Mobile proper and then a couple areas to the north and attached that to the black belt.

Per DRA, Biden won Mobile 61-38.

[patzer]

Looking at the Alabama congressional delegation, it seems very unlikely than any of the Republicans would willingly retire.

Unless I am mistaken, doesn't this mean that either two of them would be forced to run in a primary against each other, or one of them would be a sacrificial lamb that inevitably loses to the Democrat in the new district?

The expectation is that the district 1 and 2 incumbents will be paired, and that they will run against each other.  Partially cause one is in Dothan and the other is in a red precinct west of Mobile, and partially cause the new district 1 usually has similar numbers of GOP voters pulled from both prior districts.  However,  there are configurations that pair 2 and 3 together.

There are even configurations which doom the incumbent of the 5th. I do not expect this to happen though

[Oryxslayer]

I know Mobile County is like R+11 or so, but is the city of Mobile itself pretty blue? A lot of the maps that I have seen have southern Mobile county south of the city. Is the southern half of the county really red? Similar to Baldwin county?

Mobile is a big county. The city and neighboring Prichard have a lot of African Americans and votes as you would expect. And as you allude to, its a area with dem-favoring geography. The city is large, the suburban areas are smaller but very red, and the city has some large r-tilting white precincts in there which would not be squiggled out to the suburbs  under fair legislative maps.

To reach the city congressionally though you need to reach through some red suburbs like  Saraland and Satsuma, so those kinda dilute the overall impact of African American voters. The cut therefore seems to be anywhere from Biden+5 to Biden+15 depending on how much red turf is in there. Whereas the remainder of the county is like Trump+50 and likely the smaller of the two - around say   140-180K compared to the arm's 220-260K.

Do you know if Biden won the city of Mobile proper? For the second VRA district it looks like there is a pocket that grabs Mobile proper and then a couple areas to the north and attached that to the black belt.

Mobile is reliably at least Dem+20. And theres a handful of other adjacent areas - most notably Prichard - that are not titanium GOP like the rest of the county. 4/9 State House Seats and 1/3 State Senate seats in the county are safe Dem AA packs lol. And possibly one more Biden won - but not majority AA - in both chambers if the tilt-R white precincts weren't tentacled out of the city - at least according to the separate complaint against the legislative maps.

So if you are wondering, yes, some AA seat has to include Mobile. Its too large and African American. That was part of the point of the suit. The county also has to be cut cause the rest is at least 75% White and similarly large.

[bagelman]

Here's a visual as to why Mobile County may need to be cut.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/46e1d50e-77ef-4657-95cf-2b1c1d3650c7

You don't want the red portion in the VRA district, nor the blue portion out of either of the VRA districts.

[Oryxslayer]

There was an initial hearing today byt the reconvened Reapportionment Committee.

if you missed it, there were two main takeaways:

- African American group hesitation and wariness with the 'least-change' style map put forward by the combined Milligan Plaintiffs. They know the racial polarization as well as anyone else and want a united Black Belt. Notably the CBC chair said they will put forward their own map at a future date.

- Someone from the yet undecided Singleton v. Allen case brought a map. This is a racial gerrymandering case, but it mostly concerns whole-county preservation. It's important cause I don't think anyone in the room liked his argument, and he got prodded a bit by the committee. Nobody legally wanted to be with him defending Alabama's history of minimizing county cuts, since that all fell away after 1965. And neither the Dems nor the Reps liked him proposing all of Jefferson county as one access district, though for different reasons.

[patzer]

Has anyone proposed any maps involving touch-point contiguity so far? You can get much safer maps that way, e.g. this. 7th is Biden+32, 50% black VAP; 2nd is Biden+25, 54% black VAP

[Oryxslayer]

Has anyone proposed any maps involving touch-point contiguity so far? You can get much safer maps that way, e.g. this. 7th is Biden+32, 50% black VAP; 2nd is Biden+25, 54% black VAP

The point of having courts OK a map is to see a product that won't instantly end up in court again

[Tintrlvr]

Has anyone proposed any maps involving touch-point contiguity so far? You can get much safer maps that way, e.g. this. 7th is Biden+32, 50% black VAP; 2nd is Biden+25, 54% black VAP

The point of having courts OK a map is to see a product that won't instantly end up in court again

The touch-point is easily avoidable for districts with the same philosophy by having district 3 snake along the GA border anyway. Nothing prevents precinct-splitting to get more efficient there, too.

[Lykaon]

Question:

Does the second district need to be majority black (over 50%) or like an NC-1 style light blue but still blavk plurality district? It’s much easier to achieve the latter without creating ugly Illinois style snakes of districts

[Oryxslayer]

Question:

Does the second district need to be majority black (over 50%) or like an NC-1 style light blue but still blavk plurality district? It’s much easier to achieve the latter without creating ugly Illinois style snakes of districts

Neither district need be over be over 50% BVAP. One simply needs to draw two districts that can reliably elect the candidate of choice of African American voters and pass strict judicial scrutiny. This could be noticeably lower if we are in northern cities, or noticeably higher in the Mississippi Delta. It is also why "50% BVAP but Trump+1" does not work.  Given however that racially polarized voting is near enough to absolute everywhere outside of the cores of cities, any district drawn in the black belt will need to be over said 50% threshold to meet the performance requirements. 

However, the are plenty of compositions even in this thread that show Birmingham districts which would elect African American's candidate of choice easily without going over 50%. Especially if the similar core of Tuscaloosa is also involved.

There was even a guy at the hearing before the committee who tried to argue that Jefferson county in its entirely was enough to perform. The committee wasn't having it for other reasons. It is arguably the secondary motives which both Dems and Reps (and the plaintiffs) have to keep Birmingham and the majority of Jefferson separate from Hoover and the rest of the western suburbs in Shelby which necessitate the Mobile Arm. Because that's the only other (non-crazy) way you can then get the population numbers to work out, see the State Board of Education districts for further evidence.

[Lykaon]

Question:

Does the second district need to be majority black (over 50%) or like an NC-1 style light blue but still blavk plurality district? It’s much easier to achieve the latter without creating ugly Illinois style snakes of districts

Neither district need be over be over 50% BVAP. One simply needs to draw two districts that can reliably elect the candidate of choice of African American voters and pass strict judicial scrutiny. This could be noticeably lower if we are in northern cities, or noticeably higher in the Mississippi Delta. It is also why "50% BVAP but Trump+1" does not work.  Given however that racially polarized voting is near enough to absolute everywhere outside of the cores of cities, any district drawn in the black belt will need to be over said 50% threshold to meet the performance requirements. 

However, the are plenty of compositions even in this thread that show Birmingham districts which would elect African American's candidate of choice easily without going over 50%. Especially if the similar core of Tuscaloosa is also involved.

There was even a guy at the hearing before the committee who tried to argue that Jefferson county in its entirely was enough to perform. The committee wasn't having it for other reasons. It is arguably the secondary motives which both Dems and Reps (and the plaintiffs) have to keep Birmingham and the majority of Jefferson separate from Hoover and the rest of the western suburbs in Shelby which necessitate the Mobile Arm. Because that's the only other (non-crazy) way you can then get the population numbers to work out, see the State Board of Education districts for further evidence.

Thank you! I was gonna say, I was planning to submit a map that’s about 42% BVAP in Birmingham/Tuscaloosa but Biden+18 or something like that. Given that the dem primary electorate is essentially monolithically black, I was wondering if that would count. My AL-2 doesn’t dip to Mobile and is about 47% BVAP but is Biden+4 and generally bluer down ballot. Same deal in the primary electorate and it would be lean D, but at the same time creating a legitimately competitive district in a region that is severely lacking in them. A black Republican could conceivably win, but their primary electorate would have to avoid nominating “Trumpist white guy” like they did in GA-2 last year.

Generally my district philosophy is compactness and aesthetically pleasing while also trying to create plenty of competitive districts to try to incentivize and force the parties to move back to the middle by giving swing voters the power to flip several districts. It would effectively neuter the Trumpists and the Socialists if more pragmatic center-left/center-right people got into office