2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[Minnesota Mike]

If the courts Alabama ruling holds up on appeal wouldn't it set precedence that Louisiana should also have a 2nd AA seat?

[MillennialModerate]

This isn’t a big deal because it’s obviously going to be overturned on appeal

[Minnesota Mike]

This isn’t a big deal because it’s obviously going to be overturned on appeal

Why is it obvious? Purely because the Supreme Court has a majority conservatives? I'm not a lawyer but this ruling is by 2 Trump appointees and a Reagan appointee (later moved up to a higher bench by Clinton) . Nothing obvious about how this plays out IMO.

[GALeftist]

This isn’t a big deal because it’s obviously going to be overturned on appeal

I don't think even this court is hackish enough to scrap Section 2 districts in their entirety. If they are, well, things are probably about to get very interesting in New York, I'll say that much.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If the courts Alabama ruling holds up on appeal wouldn't it set precedence that Louisiana should also have a 2nd AA seat?

And potentially South Carolina

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the courts Alabama ruling holds up on appeal wouldn't it set precedence that Louisiana should also have a 2nd AA seat?

And potentially South Carolina

Thing about SC is a 2nd black district is actually pretty hard just because of how black voters are distributed; a black opportunity seat based around Columbia and a slightly unpacked SC-6 is the best you can realistically get.

[GALeftist]

If the courts Alabama ruling holds up on appeal wouldn't it set precedence that Louisiana should also have a 2nd AA seat?

And potentially South Carolina

Thing about SC is a 2nd black district is actually pretty hard just because of how black voters are distributed; a black opportunity seat based around Columbia and a slightly unpacked SC-6 is the best you can realistically get.

A better case might be made in North Carolina with the dilution of black voters in the northeast, also that was always likely to be a point of contention

[Roll Roons]

If the courts Alabama ruling holds up on appeal wouldn't it set precedence that Louisiana should also have a 2nd AA seat?

And potentially South Carolina

Thing about SC is a 2nd black district is actually pretty hard just because of how black voters are distributed; a black opportunity seat based around Columbia and a slightly unpacked SC-6 is the best you can realistically get.

Even as it is, SC-06 needs to have some ugly lines to get the necessary black population.

[Oryxslayer]

If the courts Alabama ruling holds up on appeal wouldn't it set precedence that Louisiana should also have a 2nd AA seat?

And potentially South Carolina

Thing about SC is a 2nd black district is actually pretty hard just because of how black voters are distributed; a black opportunity seat based around Columbia and a slightly unpacked SC-6 is the best you can realistically get.

Even as it is, SC-06 needs to have some ugly lines to get the necessary black population.

Here's something that both tries to be understandable but also have two plurality AA seats. And while the Columbia seat is easy - the current SC-06 is really ugly mainly cause it has to pack too metros - the new belt seat is worse. Unlike in LA where there are multiple options for another AA seat, NC where the courts are expected to shake things up, AL where there are a handful of options, and AR where there kinda is maybe one, SC really doesn't have a second seat that would make sense under Gingles.



Instead, SC would best be served by one AA seat in one of the two cities and an influence seat in the other, or swing seats in both and a belt AA seat - there's significant crossover whites in both Richland and Charleston after all - but that is even harder to sue for, if not impossible since the GOP are slightly unpacking SC-06's AA pop but still cracking the cities.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If the courts Alabama ruling holds up on appeal wouldn't it set precedence that Louisiana should also have a 2nd AA seat?

And potentially South Carolina

Thing about SC is a 2nd black district is actually pretty hard just because of how black voters are distributed; a black opportunity seat based around Columbia and a slightly unpacked SC-6 is the best you can realistically get.

It’s actually  not all that hard. I’ve done one before 2020 where you had one following the I-20 from Columbia to Florence and another in and around Charleston

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If the courts Alabama ruling holds up on appeal wouldn't it set precedence that Louisiana should also have a 2nd AA seat?

And potentially South Carolina

Thing about SC is a 2nd black district is actually pretty hard just because of how black voters are distributed; a black opportunity seat based around Columbia and a slightly unpacked SC-6 is the best you can realistically get.

Even as it is, SC-06 needs to have some ugly lines to get the necessary black population.

It actually doesn’t at all, republicans just draw in a bunch of white liberals in Charleston that would otherwise be a swing seat. You (before 2020) could make a black plurality seat with little to no county splits

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

[Del Tachi]

Putting Mobile in a Black Belt district is an adbomindation

[lfromnj]

Putting Mobile in a Black Belt district is an adbomindation

And don't get how this ruling follows the precedent of Gingles if it requires a district with mobile.
There was 1 least split map that did have 2 black opportunity seats but neither fulfilled the Gingles test.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think this definitely has big implications for Louisiana if the SCOTUS appeal fails (more likely to happen than not at this point, but far from certain given Roberts’ fierce hatred of all things VRA and general blindspot - to put it mildly - about systematic racism and Kavanaugh’s likely deference to Roberts here) *and* the Republicans remain unable to override Edwards’ veto (iirc, they’re only one vote short and I am actually more pessimistic about that than I am about what SCOTUS will do, I don’t trust the Louisiana ConservaDems at all). 

That said, SC is a heavier lift imo.  I’ll still be surprised if we win that one.

[Former President tack50]

Putting Mobile in a Black Belt district is an adbomindation

Yeah, I agree with this. I don't think that is a compact community that would deserve a seat? Not to mention the possible land conectivity issues?

[Brittain33]

Putting Mobile in a Black Belt district is an adbomindation

Possibly, but is it a worse abomination than giving individual African-Americans 50% of the voting power of White voters in Alabama for Congress?

[Boobs]

I’m not sure why it’s so egregious to put Mobile in a Black Belt seat but not Birmingham? If anything, voting patterns are more racially polarized in Mobile than they are in Bham.

[patzer]

I thought I'd make an incumbent-protection 5-2 map. Becuase I'd have thought the Alabama GOP would want to protect their incumbents and avoid a primary challenge between two of them.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3e3a4b96-f1ae-4158-a02d-816f63b5733a



While some districts are changed substantially, no incumbents are actually drawn out of their seats, and all should be comfortably reelected. (Mo Brooks is retiring, so the 5th is moved from northern Alabama to become a new Black Belt seat).

All districts are very very safe- the 5th is Biden+25 and 53% voting age black, whereas the 7th is Biden+27 and 49% voting age black.

[Oryxslayer]

Putting Mobile in a Black Belt district is an adbomindation

And don't get how this ruling follows the precedent of Gingles if it requires a district with mobile.
There was 1 least split map that did have 2 black opportunity seats but neither fulfilled the Gingles test.

And yet it has been legal in the state of Alabama for 11 years now, just not on the congressional map. These are the current and new Board of Education district maps. This is how you get a second AA seat in Alabama, and its not anymore strange than GA-02 and it's inclusion of Macon in a southwestern seat. To that end the 2000-2010 BOE maps did not put Mobile in the belt seat, but then had to in 2010 because of population decline.

[Former President tack50]

I’m not sure why it’s so egregious to put Mobile in a Black Belt seat but not Birmingham? If anything, voting patterns are more racially polarized in Mobile than they are in Bham.

Really (at least in my opinion) it comes down to the location of Mobile within the state. Mobile is in the southwesternmost corner and doing a VRA district there forces a very ugly district that on top of that also forces you to depend on water conectivity.

Meanwhile, Birmingham is in the centre of the state, so it is easy to split and it does not look all that bad.

Perhaps that is not a good rationale from a judicial point of view, but still it is not aesthetically pleasing

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I’m not sure why it’s so egregious to put Mobile in a Black Belt seat but not Birmingham? If anything, voting patterns are more racially polarized in Mobile than they are in Bham.

Really (at least in my opinion) it comes down to the location of Mobile within the state. Mobile is in the southwesternmost corner and doing a VRA district there forces a very ugly district that on top of that also forces you to depend on water conectivity.

Meanwhile, Birmingham is in the centre of the state, so it is easy to split and it does not look all that bad.

Perhaps that is not a good rationale from a judicial point of view, but still it is not aesthetically pleasing

It doesn't necessarily rely on water contiguity. You can have a coastal strip connecting them.

[Skill and Chance]

I would say there's no chance this survives SCOTUS review, but having 2 Trump appointees join the ruling and seeing the existing BOE map does give me pause.  One of the Trump appointees was nominated before Doug Jones was elected, so it's not like these were judges moderates handpicked as part of a negotiation between Jones and Shelby.

[Former President tack50]

Anyways I will self-quote my old self on what imo should happen given that now 2 black districts are required. I sadly don't have the map link but still. Also it might not be good enough anyways

Why is everyone doing a bastardized thing in Mobile? There is no way such a horrible split is required right? Even if you want 2 black districts you can do much better than that



In this map, district 2 is an easy black majority district. Technically only 49.7% black by CVAP, but more than enough to elect a black Democrat (56-44 composite, D+4)

District 5 is a white majority district that however would be very likely to elect a black democrat under a "black voters + token white liberals" weird coalition. It is 52-45 white by CVAP (49-46 white by total population) and D+3, 55-45 D composite

Assuming it is a legal map (I will admit district 5 is iffy), this is what it should ideally look like

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Question: say AL has two black seats drawn in 2020. In 2030, if the state drops to six seats, does it lose one of those black seats?