2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.

It's too big and Scottsdale still leans r.

No and no. This is a population-balanced 6-4 D map (7-3 if O'Halleran can hold on--AZ Republicans are seriously packed in  the far northwest valley, far east valley, and along the Colorado River.) By lumping in R-leaning Scottsdale with the white liberal core of Phoenix and college town Tempe, you get a D+19 district, but you allow for four more Maricopa-based Dem districts in Peoria/Glendale, South Phoenix/Buckeye, and Mesa/Chandler.)

It would look like this:

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.

It's too big and Scottsdale still leans r.

No and no. This is a population-balanced 6-4 D map (7-3 if O'Halleran can hold on--AZ Republicans are seriously packed in  the far northwest valley, far east valley, and along the Colorado River.) By lumping in R-leaning Scottsdale with the white liberal core of Phoenix and college town Tempe, you get a D+19 district, but you allow for four more Maricopa-based Dem districts in Peoria/Glendale, South Phoenix/Buckeye, and Mesa/Chandler.)

It would look like this:

that map has some eerie similarities to the 1980s map, superficially speaking.
What is the Native % in the Navajo district?

26% by total population, 22% by voting age population.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

That isn't far from expectation I guess.
What about the PVI? R+4?

R+8. It's a sacrifice, but it allows for a pretty safe 6-4 Dem majority by allowing for the Yuma and Tuscon seats to all be safe D.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I can't help but think there should be a single district taking in the urban core of the area, including Downtown Phoenix, the Biltmore Area, Downtown Scottsdale, and Downtown Tempe.

Sounds like a Dem vote sink that Republicans would create.

It's too big and Scottsdale still leans r.

No and no. This is a population-balanced 6-4 D map (7-3 if O'Halleran can hold on--AZ Republicans are seriously packed in  the far northwest valley, far east valley, and along the Colorado River.) By lumping in R-leaning Scottsdale with the white liberal core of Phoenix and college town Tempe, you get a D+19 district, but you allow for four more Maricopa-based Dem districts in Peoria/Glendale, South Phoenix/Buckeye, and Mesa/Chandler.)

It would look like this:

Just looking at it I have doubts to that maps legality. That grey district certainly doesn't look like it's anywhere near a HVAP majority, it looks more like a HVAP in the low 40s.

Two things to consider.
1. 2010 HVAP data is not that relevant for a 2020 map, you ought to look at 2010 total population proportions instead.
2. The share of Pinal in that seat is actually quite a bit more non-white relative to the county as a whole. Looks can be deceiving.

1. Going off the 2015 ACS the Hispanic pop in the grey will increase by about 5% to 2020. In which case the HVAP in that seat is maybe 45%.
2. On a redrawing of the map in DRA following Blairite's map, the grey area in Pinal is only about 5% more Hispanic than the county as a whole.

It would be about 47% HVAP, but 51% by total hispanic population. Regardless, the WVAP would only be about 34% in 2020 so it might be good enough. And the yellow district should be majority minority FWIW.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So we can definitely kiss AZ-01 and AZ-02 goodbye with the inevitable Republican gerrymander. Dems will be confined to 2 seats in Phoenix and 1 in Tucson

At least 2 Dem seats i Phoenix are needed to avoid a dummmander.  3 is ideal.  A 6R-4D map is pretty fair anyways.

What about when Democrats are winning a majority of the statewide vote (which seems inevitable at this point)?

It should still be pretty easy to draw two Dem sinks in Maricopa County with the remaining seats being pretty strongly Republican. Something like two 70%+ Sinema seats and the rest 55% McSally or better.

If it's so easy, please draw one that does that.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/45380952-72e8-4c6c-9d96-606ce6f84395
Not possible.  The best I could do is 2 Phx vote sinks, 1 Trump-Sinema competitive seat (still leans R because Sinema overperformed being from the area) and the rest of the Phx suburban seats are at least McSally+10.  We really need 3 dem leaning seats in Maricopa so the suburbs are safe R.  Can be competitive D tho.

That 9th district is only Trump +6, it's almost certain to flip sometime during the 2020s if current suburban trends continue.

TBH the best option for the AZGOP is to lock in a 6-4, which can be done easily - if you create a Tucson sink and 3 Phoenix sinks (one of which is a VRA), you can make the other suburban seats all at least McSally+13 and Trump+20, and make the 1st and 2nd (which shouldn't be trending left as aggressively, if at all) at least Trump +10. Here's a map that does that: https://davesredistricting.org/join/e382b695-9c53-40b4-9a50-ffb294c23045. The suburban seats should hold through the decade, and while the 2nd could plausbily fall, it's Trump +10 and would be an uphill climb.

Theoretical Map

That would theoretically work best for them but you don't have road connectivity on the Tuscon-Yuma and Tuscon-Nogales districts. Is that allowed in Arizona?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

My take on a COI-based fair map. Should be 4D-4R-2S.



It keeps northern AZ intact (this is a very real COI that should be followed as closely as possible), creates a Pinal-based CD, does the classic Tucson-Yuma split, and then chops up Maricopa as cleanly as possible.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Link to map?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::aa0ac11a-d432-4b7c-947f-113fbc7ac6b2

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Link to map?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::aa0ac11a-d432-4b7c-947f-113fbc7ac6b2

The share link blairite not the link at top.

Woops.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bcf5e2bc-6bdb-4cec-a16b-d5b0b699458e

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'd be shocked if any of Gila, Navajo, and Apache counties end up in the East Tuscon instead of the Northern AZ district. Cutting Mohave and putting Lake Havasu City in with AZ-03 is the much more obvious way of dealing with the population imbalance.