2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[Idaho Conservative]

Pretty solid 6-4 map, but the Tuscan suburban seat and Glendale seat could be competitive, meaning it could be 5-5 in a dem wave or 7-3 in a republican wave.  Overall, this map is favorable to dems in Maricopa, giving them 3 seats, but outside of that the map is favorable to republicans. 
https://davesredistricting.org/join/533b0941-3a47-469b-8cba-bdf618aa2e0b
This map is probably in the inverse of the current in terms of partisan favorability.  But could be much more for dems, they could easily walk away with only 3 seats. 

[Idaho Conservative]

My map has competitive seats, and a bunch of other maps here split Tuscan. 

[Idaho Conservative]

So we can definitely kiss AZ-01 and AZ-02 goodbye with the inevitable Republican gerrymander. Dems will be confined to 2 seats in Phoenix and 1 in Tucson

At least 2 Dem seats i Phoenix are needed to avoid a dummmander.  3 is ideal.  A 6R-4D map is pretty fair anyways.

[Idaho Conservative]

So we can definitely kiss AZ-01 and AZ-02 goodbye with the inevitable Republican gerrymander. Dems will be confined to 2 seats in Phoenix and 1 in Tucson

At least 2 Dem seats i Phoenix are needed to avoid a dummmander.  3 is ideal.  A 6R-4D map is pretty fair anyways.

What about when Democrats are winning a majority of the statewide vote (which seems inevitable at this point)?

Still more fair than 8-2.  I'm saying do a tilt R map.

[Idaho Conservative]

So we can definitely kiss AZ-01 and AZ-02 goodbye with the inevitable Republican gerrymander. Dems will be confined to 2 seats in Phoenix and 1 in Tucson

At least 2 Dem seats i Phoenix are needed to avoid a dummmander.  3 is ideal.  A 6R-4D map is pretty fair anyways.

What about when Democrats are winning a majority of the statewide vote (which seems inevitable at this point)?

It should still be pretty easy to draw two Dem sinks in Maricopa County with the remaining seats being pretty strongly Republican. Something like two 70%+ Sinema seats and the rest 55% McSally or better.

If it's so easy, please draw one that does that.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/45380952-72e8-4c6c-9d96-606ce6f84395
Not possible.  The best I could do is 2 Phx vote sinks, 1 Trump-Sinema competitive seat (still leans R because Sinema overperformed being from the area) and the rest of the Phx suburban seats are at least McSally+10.  We really need 3 dem leaning seats in Maricopa so the suburbs are safe R.  Can be competitive D tho.

[Idaho Conservative]

So we can definitely kiss AZ-01 and AZ-02 goodbye with the inevitable Republican gerrymander. Dems will be confined to 2 seats in Phoenix and 1 in Tucson

At least 2 Dem seats i Phoenix are needed to avoid a dummmander.  3 is ideal.  A 6R-4D map is pretty fair anyways.

What about when Democrats are winning a majority of the statewide vote (which seems inevitable at this point)?

It should still be pretty easy to draw two Dem sinks in Maricopa County with the remaining seats being pretty strongly Republican. Something like two 70%+ Sinema seats and the rest 55% McSally or better.

If it's so easy, please draw one that does that.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/45380952-72e8-4c6c-9d96-606ce6f84395
Not possible.  The best I could do is 2 Phx vote sinks, 1 Trump-Sinema competitive seat (still leans R because Sinema overperformed being from the area) and the rest of the Phx suburban seats are at least McSally+10.  We really need 3 dem leaning seats in Maricopa so the suburbs are safe R.  Can be competitive D tho.

That 9th district is only Trump +6, it's almost certain to flip sometime during the 2020s if current suburban trends continue.

TBH the best option for the AZGOP is to lock in a 6-4, which can be done easily - if you create a Tucson sink and 3 Phoenix sinks (one of which is a VRA), you can make the other suburban seats all at least McSally+13 and Trump+20, and make the 1st and 2nd (which shouldn't be trending left as aggressively, if at all) at least Trump +10. Here's a map that does that: https://davesredistricting.org/join/e382b695-9c53-40b4-9a50-ffb294c23045. The suburban seats should hold through the decade, and while the 2nd could plausbily fall, it's Trump +10 and would be an uphill climb.

Theoretical Map

I agree, that's like my first map.  I just made the other one to make a point

[Idaho Conservative]

Each party makes a map and the independent is a tossup.  Could get a tilt R map.