2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder that AZ throws out the old map and starts anew, so the districts may not resemble the present ones. The cross-county native tribes to the NE and the Border Hispanics to the South need to stay together though, so its uncertain how much can actually change outside of Maricopa.

[Oryxslayer]

Just like I did for NJ, here is my attempt at a "fair map" for Arizona

FTR, this map is illegal because of what it does to the NE native reservations.

[Oryxslayer]

Just like I did for NJ, here is my attempt at a "fair map" for Arizona

FTR, this map is illegal because of what it does to the NE native reservations.

Wait so you need to have them together? They are not enough for a native VRA district right?

No, you do not need to put all the native reservations in one district because they do not have enough for one clear district at the congressional level. However, the following reservations are considered superior to counties and need to be preserved before anything else. You cut the Navajo, Hopi, San Carlos, and White Mountain reservations, along with those in the south. The entire reason for the bizarre northern arrangement in 2000 for example was because the Hopi and Navajo tribes desired separation, but the tribal land needed to be kept whole. In 2010 this was no longer an issue, so the NE block was reunited.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1437821194116288513?s=20
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1437821888181325826?s=20

What does this mean for Tom O'Halleran?

He's almost certainly screwed with this map. Not only is the Native base split, the seat also takes in hard R territory such as Yavapai.

Mind you when they say starting block, they mean STARTING BLOCK. Go back and check the 2010 thread to see how the comparative plans to this proposal were the proverbial clay to build districts from. The final plan barely resembles the proposed maps, you have to really squint to see it. All this really shows is what they want the geographic core of the the districts to be, with everything emanating from that core changing.

For example, I expect the seat labeled AZ-02 to go through a bunch of changes because of native groups and their desire to have some access. Like the map splits a few reservations, which is instantly illegal. But that is fine, cause this a rough plan for their geographic bases.

[Oryxslayer]

I really don't get why they can't do Santa Cruz+Cochise+Tucson



It looks nice and compact and has the bonus of being competitive, Biden+5 (you can also still draw the border VRA seat with this configuration)

They can draw such a seat. Frankly, they can even stick it all inside Pima. The northern additions to add bits of non-native rurals are forced cause they choose to add Yavapai to the NE seat, forcing it to drop population to other seats in the South/SW. That, and maybe the desire for a competitive seat pertinent to the commissions mandate.

[Oryxslayer]

Which CDs/Reps. changed numbers?

CD-1 -> CD-2 O'Halleran
CD-6 -> CD-1 Schweikert
CD-2 -> CD-6  Kirkpatrick's replacement

What else?

AZ-04 and AZ-09 basically switched numbers, as did AZ-03 and AZ-07. It's really only AZ-05 and AZ-08 that stayed the same.

It's super annoying.

And unlike other states that follow that renumber, AZ doesn't have a consistent scheme. California and Florida go north -> south, PA and NC now go east -> west for example. In 2000 AZ went roughtly North to South, in 2010 they did a clockwise cycle into Maricopa, and now they are doing a clockwise cycle out of Maricopa.

[Oryxslayer]

yeah that Southern VRA seat is pretty horrible.

Rs were smart and basically used the argument that if Yuma should be part of the VRA seat then why shouldn't Cochise?

The R's were dumb is they argued that, because the Cochise prong meant that AZ-06 needed to go deeper into a highly Dem, high turnout Woke white part of Tucson, in exchange for shedding the low turnout Hispanic real estate, plus a bit of Pub connector real estate.

IIRC they went for 50.1% CVAP, so the last option would just be more Yuma/Phoenix which wouldn't help AZ02. One could also sue this as a racial gerrymander but that would likely just hurt Democrats mostly while maybe helping them a bit in Maricopa with AZ08 IMO. If Elias wins his lawsuit, it would be just like the NC 2016 lawsuit

TBH the only real potential place for a case is in regards to the native regions and how the NE seat went from a majority-minority coalition to a majority white seat because of Yavapai. And the map had to do this pairing to pass a vote by the commission, thanks to Redlines laid down by the swing vote, so there wasn't much the Dems could do despite their protests. And it could have gotten even more diverse if drawn differently when starting from the former lines. And it was previously performing based on the commissions test elections, and now it isn't according to their own data.

Of course a coalition seat is harder to argue in favor for than a 50% seat, but you can't get 3 50% cvap Hispanic seats or a 50% native seat it this state without getting uncompact.