2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[Former President tack50]

Just like I did for NJ, here is my attempt at a "fair map" for Arizona

https://davesredistricting.org/join/11c5be7b-6cae-4cb0-9e35-cd41ba44b688



And the numbers. Including both PVI and Clinton-Trump numbers as the former seems to be deceiving for Arizona?

AZ-01: R+10, Trump 55-38
AZ-02: EVEN, Clinton 49-44
AZ-03: D+8, Clinton 57-37 (51% Hispanic)
AZ-04: R+12, Trump 57-36
AZ-05: R+9, Trump 50-41
AZ-06: R+6, Trump 47-44
AZ-07: D+18, Clinton 66-27 (56% Hispanic)
AZ-08: R+12, Trump 56-38
AZ-09: D+3, Clinton 53-40
AZ-10: R+14, Trump 57-37

So in theory, going by PVI this even looks like an R gerrymander, with only 2 safe Dem district, a lean Dem district, a swing district and a whopping 6 safe R districts

However this also seems like the kind of map that would end up being a dummymander. I imagine AZ-06 almost certainly went D in 2018 and probably would not look back. AZ-09 is probably gone for good. And it is not inconceivable that dems narrowly flipped AZ-05 in this map, leading to a 6D-4R delegation though I imagine 5-5 is more likely.

Overall I imagine this map would be a 5R-4D-1 Swing map in practice; or maybe 5R-3D-2S if you think the Republicans will make a suburban comeback.

[Former President tack50]

Just like I did for NJ, here is my attempt at a "fair map" for Arizona

FTR, this map is illegal because of what it does to the NE native reservations.

Wait so you need to have them together? They are not enough for a native VRA district right?

[Former President tack50]

Just like I did for NJ, here is my attempt at a "fair map" for Arizona

https://davesredistricting.org/join/11c5be7b-6cae-4cb0-9e35-cd41ba44b688

The map seems to totally ignore municipal lines (mainly in Maricopa of course) not to mention some rather odd districts which don't follow COIs, particularly the rural seats (splitting the NE Natives, Northern Pinal shoved in a rural seat while the 10th randomly takes rural Yavapai). So I'd question how this map is "fair".

Well I did not use partisan data and the districts look "neat" for the most part

[Former President tack50]

Since the general consensus seems to be that the comission will draw some form of a soft R gerrymander that will at least somewhat keep COIs and what not, here is a map I drew.

To be honest, this seems to me almost more like an R dummymander or a barely R tilting map than a full on gerrymander but whatever.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2ed75d67-e5d1-416d-b423-9002d7333a84



Phoenix inset:



AZ-01: Trump+6, Sinema+0, R+6 (23% Native by CVAP)
AZ-02: Trump+3, McSally+1, R+4
AZ-03: Clinton+32, Sinema+33, D+13 (49% Hispanic by CVAP)
AZ-04: Trump+18, McSally+10, R+11
AZ-05: Trump+23, McSally+15, R+14
AZ-06: Trump+17, McSally+8, R+12
AZ-07: Clinton+42, Sinema+47, D+19
AZ-08: Trump+25, McSally+19, R+16
AZ-09: Trump+1, Sinema+7, R+5
AZ-10: Clinton+20, Sinema+27, D+7

So basically, in theory the intent of this map is to have 4 Safe R (4, 5, 6, , 3 Safe D (3, 7, 10), 1 Lean D (9) and 2 R leaning tossups (1 and 2).

To be honest, since 9 is heavily trending D, this can be seen more as a fair map (in terms of partisanship at least, probably not in terms of COIs and what not) than anything else.

[Former President tack50]

My attempt at a fair and clean AZ map, that also solves the Tucson discussion from before (which seems dumb to me? there are plenty of ways to draw 2 good districts in the area, though splitting Tucson is unavoidable imo)



https://davesredistricting.org/join/209a7ef4-d71f-42ee-9983-270c88f011cc

AZ-01 (East rural AZ, taking all Native American reservations): Trump+9, McSally+3, R+5 (23% Native CVAP)
AZ-02 (East Tucson + Cochise): Clinton+2, Sinema+6, R+2
AZ-03 (West Tucson to Yuma): Clinton+23, Sinema+20, D+9 (48% Hispanic CVAP)
AZ-04 (Northwest rural AZ): Trump+30, McSally+22. R+17
AZ-05 (Mesa): Trump+20, McSally+12, R+14
AZ-06 (Scottsdale & North Phoenix): Trump+14, McSally+8, R+11
AZ-07 (Downtown Phoenix, Litchfield & Tolleson): Clinton+33, Sinema+37. D+15 (45% Hispanic CVAP)
AZ-08  (Peoria, Glendale & Surprise): Trump+15, McSally+7. R+11
AZ-09 (Tempe, Chambler & Gilbert): Clinton+2, Sinema+10. R+3
AZ-10 (Middle Phoenix): Clinton+16, Sinema+24. D+4

Honestly the most surprising district here imo might be the 10th, which must have zoomed left extremely fast to be both Clinton+16 but also only D+4?