2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[lfromnj]

courtmander doesn't mean total gerrymander, it means multiple small decisions pushed towards one party. The best case to show this in PA is how they switched the slice of Montgomery taken for the Bucks county district which was clean in the old map unlike the rest of SEPA. The GOP took an R leaning exurban slice and a GOP leaning court would have kept that if they somehow agreed to redraw the maps. The D court took an inner ring suburban slice to make the Bucks district a bit more D leaning. Simple decisions like that. Its not a gerrymander because they did have to take a slice of Montgomery realistically but it still shows some intentions of the court. Im not saying how I would have done the district Im just pointing out basic reality.



PA 10th is similar with a unique swing district created from central PA.
Arizona is quite a bit gerrymandered

AZ 9th literally splits Scottsdale/Mesa/Chandler and takes Phoenix to create the most white dem district possible.

And to show you Colleen Mathis's intentions, look at the legislative maps and look at the population deviations and look at the partisanship for the district. Its clear Democrats got underpopulated districts and Rs got overpopulated districts.


Look at the population deviation column. Notice how its basically correlated with partisanship?
There is literally one other state in the nation that abuses population deviation to the degree of this. The NY state senate/house. This basically gave Democrats an extra 3/4 of a legislative seat which is pretty big considering the chamber is almost tied right now.

[Sol]

courtmander doesn't mean total gerrymander, it means multiple small decisions pushed towards one party. The best case to show this in PA is how they switched the slice of Montgomery taken for the Bucks county district which was clean in the old map unlike the rest of SEPA. The GOP took an R leaning exurban slice and a GOP leaning court would have kept that if they somehow agreed to redraw the maps. The D court took an inner ring suburban slice to make the Bucks district a bit more D leaning. Simple decisions like that.

PA 10th is similar with a unique swing district created from central PA.



Similar example of a possible VA courtmander. It does still focus on generally keeping COI's together but it does tip the Richmond district back to firmly GOP leaning by taking different slices of Chesterfield county.

Ultimately stuff like this kind of appropriately complicates the notion of a gerrymander. There are a lot of decisions that happen in drawing maps where there are multiple equally good (or equally cruddy) prospects available, and the choice you make will have a clear partisan effect. I think conflating those choices with gerrymandering is a little misleading ultimately, because the PA Court Map is ultimately pretty fair--they make choices which favor Democrats but those choices are as reasonable as the Republican alternative.

Personally when I draw maps I try to evaluate reasonable choices by analyzing Communities of Interest--but if there's not anything obvious I'll usually go for the option which brings the state closer to an accurate reflection of its partisan balance.

[lfromnj]

courtmander doesn't mean total gerrymander, it means multiple small decisions pushed towards one party. The best case to show this in PA is how they switched the slice of Montgomery taken for the Bucks county district which was clean in the old map unlike the rest of SEPA. The GOP took an R leaning exurban slice and a GOP leaning court would have kept that if they somehow agreed to redraw the maps. The D court took an inner ring suburban slice to make the Bucks district a bit more D leaning. Simple decisions like that.

PA 10th is similar with a unique swing district created from central PA.



Similar example of a possible VA courtmander. It does still focus on generally keeping COI's together but it does tip the Richmond district back to firmly GOP leaning by taking different slices of Chesterfield county.

Ultimately stuff like this kind of appropriately complicates the notion of a gerrymander. There are a lot of decisions that happen in drawing maps where there are multiple equally good (or equally cruddy) prospects available, and the choice you make will have a clear partisan effect. I think conflating those choices with gerrymandering is a little misleading ultimately, because the PA Court Map is ultimately pretty fair--they make choices which favor Democrats but those choices are as reasonable as the Republican alternative.

Personally when I draw maps I try to evaluate reasonable choices by analyzing Communities of Interest--but if there's not anything obvious I'll usually go for the option which brings the state closer to an accurate reflection of its partisan balance.

Fair enough to describe it that way. Im just describing a courtmander as tipping the scales. Not going all out in messiness. Whats your opinion on the AZ legislative data I showed above?

[Sol]

courtmander doesn't mean total gerrymander, it means multiple small decisions pushed towards one party. The best case to show this in PA is how they switched the slice of Montgomery taken for the Bucks county district which was clean in the old map unlike the rest of SEPA. The GOP took an R leaning exurban slice and a GOP leaning court would have kept that if they somehow agreed to redraw the maps. The D court took an inner ring suburban slice to make the Bucks district a bit more D leaning. Simple decisions like that.

PA 10th is similar with a unique swing district created from central PA.



Similar example of a possible VA courtmander. It does still focus on generally keeping COI's together but it does tip the Richmond district back to firmly GOP leaning by taking different slices of Chesterfield county.

Ultimately stuff like this kind of appropriately complicates the notion of a gerrymander. There are a lot of decisions that happen in drawing maps where there are multiple equally good (or equally cruddy) prospects available, and the choice you make will have a clear partisan effect. I think conflating those choices with gerrymandering is a little misleading ultimately, because the PA Court Map is ultimately pretty fair--they make choices which favor Democrats but those choices are as reasonable as the Republican alternative.

Personally when I draw maps I try to evaluate reasonable choices by analyzing Communities of Interest--but if there's not anything obvious I'll usually go for the option which brings the state closer to an accurate reflection of its partisan balance.

Fair enough to describe it that way. Im just describing a courtmander as tipping the scales. Not going all out in messiness. Whats your opinion on the AZ legislative data I showed above?

Yeah, I agree that Arizona's current map is pretty biased and not optimal.

[Former President tack50]

My attempt at a fair and clean AZ map, that also solves the Tucson discussion from before (which seems dumb to me? there are plenty of ways to draw 2 good districts in the area, though splitting Tucson is unavoidable imo)



https://davesredistricting.org/join/209a7ef4-d71f-42ee-9983-270c88f011cc

AZ-01 (East rural AZ, taking all Native American reservations): Trump+9, McSally+3, R+5 (23% Native CVAP)
AZ-02 (East Tucson + Cochise): Clinton+2, Sinema+6, R+2
AZ-03 (West Tucson to Yuma): Clinton+23, Sinema+20, D+9 (48% Hispanic CVAP)
AZ-04 (Northwest rural AZ): Trump+30, McSally+22. R+17
AZ-05 (Mesa): Trump+20, McSally+12, R+14
AZ-06 (Scottsdale & North Phoenix): Trump+14, McSally+8, R+11
AZ-07 (Downtown Phoenix, Litchfield & Tolleson): Clinton+33, Sinema+37. D+15 (45% Hispanic CVAP)
AZ-08  (Peoria, Glendale & Surprise): Trump+15, McSally+7. R+11
AZ-09 (Tempe, Chambler & Gilbert): Clinton+2, Sinema+10. R+3
AZ-10 (Middle Phoenix): Clinton+16, Sinema+24. D+4

Honestly the most surprising district here imo might be the 10th, which must have zoomed left extremely fast to be both Clinton+16 but also only D+4?

[lfromnj]

Do like it tack, you did follow city lines in Maricopa as much as possible which is the best thing to do there as county lines are not there.

Poor Flagstaff gets Paul Gosar though

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

My attempt at a fair and clean AZ map, that also solves the Tucson discussion from before (which seems dumb to me? there are plenty of ways to draw 2 good districts in the area, though splitting Tucson is unavoidable imo)

Your 1st district does not take up all the reservations (I am completely sure there is at least one missing in NW Arizona that is taken up by the current 1st) and I am not sure it's a great look to go out of one's way to take all the reservations possible only to have the district clock in at Trump+9.
It might also be that you can't take them all without overpopulating it or else screwing up badly all the others, though.

[lfromnj]

My attempt at a fair and clean AZ map, that also solves the Tucson discussion from before (which seems dumb to me? there are plenty of ways to draw 2 good districts in the area, though splitting Tucson is unavoidable imo)

Your 1st district does not take up all the reservations (I am completely sure there is at least one missing in NW Arizona that is taken up by the current 1st) and I am not sure it's a great look to go out of one's way to take all the reservations possible only to have the district clock in at Trump+9.
It might also be that you can't take them all without overpopulating it or else screwing up badly all the others, though.

That one doesn't matter. however he did split one reservation between Pinal and Maricopa county which I think he should take in as its one reservation I think that got split. The reason why AZ01 is a bit more D leaning is because it has flagstaff which is white liberals. Overall I did like tack's Maricopa and southern AZ districts although not the biggest fan of northern AZ.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

My take on a COI-based fair map. Should be 4D-4R-2S.



It keeps northern AZ intact (this is a very real COI that should be followed as closely as possible), creates a Pinal-based CD, does the classic Tucson-Yuma split, and then chops up Maricopa as cleanly as possible.

[lfromnj]

My take on a COI-based fair map. Should be 4D-4R-2S.



It keeps northern AZ intact (this is a very real COI that should be followed as closely as possible), creates a Pinal-based CD, does the classic Tucson-Yuma split, and then chops up Maricopa as cleanly as possible.

Link to map?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Link to map?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::aa0ac11a-d432-4b7c-947f-113fbc7ac6b2

[lfromnj]

Link to map?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::aa0ac11a-d432-4b7c-947f-113fbc7ac6b2

The share link blairite not the link at top.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Link to map?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::aa0ac11a-d432-4b7c-947f-113fbc7ac6b2

The share link blairite not the link at top.

Woops.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bcf5e2bc-6bdb-4cec-a16b-d5b0b699458e

[Sol]

Link to map?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::aa0ac11a-d432-4b7c-947f-113fbc7ac6b2

The share link blairite not the link at top.

Woops.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bcf5e2bc-6bdb-4cec-a16b-d5b0b699458e

FYI, you're splitting the San Carlos Apache Indian Reservation.

[cvparty]

Link to map?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::aa0ac11a-d432-4b7c-947f-113fbc7ac6b2

The share link blairite not the link at top.

Woops.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bcf5e2bc-6bdb-4cec-a16b-d5b0b699458e

FYI, you're splitting the San Carlos Apache Indian Reservation.

GRIC and Todono O'odham Nation are also both split among three districts

[lfromnj]

https://www.azmirror.com/2020/10/08/five-finalists-to-lead-independent-redistricting-committee-chosen/

The five finalists are:

Nicole Cullen, an American history, American government and criminal justice teacher at Perry High School in Gilbert.
Thomas Loquvam, general counsel and vice president of corporate services at the utility company EPCOR. He previously served as general counsel at Pinnacle West, the parent company of Arizona Public Service.
Erika Schupak Neuberg, a psychologist with a practice in Scottsdale who serves as a national board member for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
Gregory Teesdale, an Oro Valley resident and former executive at venture capital companies
Robert Wilson, who owns a business consulting practice and gun store in Flagstaff.

Description of all 5 in the article, feel free to read through.

[S019]

https://www.azmirror.com/2020/10/08/five-finalists-to-lead-independent-redistricting-committee-chosen/

The five finalists are:

Nicole Cullen, an American history, American government and criminal justice teacher at Perry High School in Gilbert.
Thomas Loquvam, general counsel and vice president of corporate services at the utility company EPCOR. He previously served as general counsel at Pinnacle West, the parent company of Arizona Public Service.
Erika Schupak Neuberg, a psychologist with a practice in Scottsdale who serves as a national board member for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
Gregory Teesdale, an Oro Valley resident and former executive at venture capital companies
Robert Wilson, who owns a business consulting practice and gun store in Flagstaff.

Description of all 5 in the article, feel free to read through.

Based on the bios, Cullen and Neuberg are probably the only ones who aren't guaranteed to be partisan Republicans

[lfromnj]

https://www.azmirror.com/2020/10/08/five-finalists-to-lead-independent-redistricting-committee-chosen/

The five finalists are:

Nicole Cullen, an American history, American government and criminal justice teacher at Perry High School in Gilbert.
Thomas Loquvam, general counsel and vice president of corporate services at the utility company EPCOR. He previously served as general counsel at Pinnacle West, the parent company of Arizona Public Service.
Erika Schupak Neuberg, a psychologist with a practice in Scottsdale who serves as a national board member for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
Gregory Teesdale, an Oro Valley resident and former executive at venture capital companies
Robert Wilson, who owns a business consulting practice and gun store in Flagstaff.

Description of all 5 in the article, feel free to read through.

Based on the bios, Cullen and Neuberg are probably the only ones who aren't guaranteed to be partisan Republicans

Neuberg dropped out by the way.

https://twitter.com/AZCourts/status/1317119396175806466

[Torie]

AZ is so much less interesting than the last cycle. It is going to be a 5-5 map - period. The Pub collapse in the city of Phoenix has been brutal. So you don't need a mathismander or any other kind of mander to "fairly" split the partisan pie. You can  draw a map that once comports with good redistricting principles, while splitting the partisan pie fairly.

So this state is a great big bore. I doubt I will be back.

PS: I am sure that all you virgin nerds know why there are these seemingly unnecessarily county splits.

[lfromnj]

@torie the commision is being heavily R stacked , I see little reason the GOP won't try to keep the very "fair" AZ 9th as close to its current form as possible.


Where is your 5th D seat?

[Torie]

@torie the commision is being heavily R stacked , I see little reason the GOP won't try to keep the very "fair" AZ 9th as close to its current form as possible.


Where is your 5th D seat?

Four are nested in Maricopa (the only exception being the Mesa based CD), the other is Pima (Tuscon) based.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'd be shocked if any of Gila, Navajo, and Apache counties end up in the East Tuscon instead of the Northern AZ district. Cutting Mohave and putting Lake Havasu City in with AZ-03 is the much more obvious way of dealing with the population imbalance.

[Torie]

I'd be shocked if any of Gila, Navajo, and Apache counties end up in the East Tuscon instead of the Northern AZ district. Cutting Mohave and putting Lake Havasu City in with AZ-03 is the much more obvious way of dealing with the population imbalance.

There is a reason.

[S019]

I'd be shocked if any of Gila, Navajo, and Apache counties end up in the East Tuscon instead of the Northern AZ district. Cutting Mohave and putting Lake Havasu City in with AZ-03 is the much more obvious way of dealing with the population imbalance.

There is a reason.

Where is the border Hispanic VRA seat?

[lfromnj]

I'd be shocked if any of Gila, Navajo, and Apache counties end up in the East Tuscon instead of the Northern AZ district. Cutting Mohave and putting Lake Havasu City in with AZ-03 is the much more obvious way of dealing with the population imbalance.

There is a reason.

Where is the border Hispanic VRA seat?

The Pima district?

I don't see a reason to butcher that area, there isn't serious racially polarized voting in the Tucson area as far as I can tell.