Wisconsin Supreme Court 2020: Who Will Win?

[ElectionsGuy]

*Incumbent

Kelly got 50% in a 3-way race with another liberal-leaning candidate in the primary. Now with coronavirus and a less competitive Democratic primary, turnout could potentially be a lot lower than initially thought. Who benefits is unknown, however I would expect the Dems (Karofsky) to still have the advantage for this one. But I thought that last time with Neubauer too^. If Kelly pulls this out, a majority on the Supreme Court will be out of reach for liberals for a long time. And I'm guessing it will cause a lot of discussion about whether Wisconsin is really a red state. All in all, I think we're kidding ourselves if we think this is a foregone conclusion. Republicans have proven the ability to turn out in record numbers for a virtually unopposed incumbent president so I think they'll turn out for this one too. I would rate it a toss-up but tilts Karofsky.

^Side note: Neubauer is running for re-election to the 2nd district court of appeals (very R-leaning). She lost the district by 27 (63.5-36.5) in her bid for the Supreme Court against Hagedorn. I think it's fairly likely she loses, and by a large margin. Nobody can be sure though when you get further down the ballot.

[Bidenworth2020]

Probably Kelly, if I had to guess.

[brucejoel99]

I would presume Kelly.

[Gass3268]

Pretty confident Kelly is gonna win, all of the circumstances that made Karofsky the favorite earlier in the year have been evaporated.

[MasterJedi]

Got my vote in for Karofsky, figure Kelly will win though. The rural counties like shooting themselves in the private parts.

[SnowLabrador]

Kelly.

[S019]

I'll say Karofsky


Even with a VBM primary, I don't think Republicans will be as motivated to return ballots, given that they know the primary is over, and I don't think that a downballot court race will convince them to return ballots. I'll say Karofsky by 2.

[redjohn]

Kelly. Don't underestimate our ability to lose very winnable supreme court races here in Wisconsin.

[Gracile]

Kelly, the Democrats probably won't get the turnout that they need.

[Xing]

Given how little attention this is getting, probably Kelly. I’m sure the “WI is a deep red state/the next MO” folks will be happy to have another “data point” to bring up.

[MT Treasurer]

Kelly could win, but I don’t buy that he’s heavily favored in an election like this (if anything, the "fundamentals" favor Karofsky and not Kelly in this particular election). Democrats have done a great job downplaying expectations, but it could go either way.

[smoltchanov]

Hope - Karofsky, think - Kelly

[wbrocks67]

Given the Dem primary, there is no reason Karofsky should lose.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think this is a position that should not be filled by partisan elections.

[woodystick]

Kelly

[redjohn]

Given the Dem primary, there is no reason Karofsky should lose.

In-person voting is being strongly discouraged, which will heavily limit turnout in Milwaukee. Dane county, which should be a power-house for Karofsky, is losing tens of thousands of potential votes for her due to students displaced by school closures. Same with other college towns in the state. It'll be surprising if Karofsky wins.

[wbrocks67]

Given the Dem primary, there is no reason Karofsky should lose.

In-person voting is being strongly discouraged, which will heavily limit turnout in Milwaukee. Dane county, which should be a power-house for Karofsky, is losing tens of thousands of potential votes for her due to students displaced by school closures. Same with other college towns in the state. It'll be surprising if Karofsky wins.

Can't all those people just do mail ballots?

[redjohn]

Given the Dem primary, there is no reason Karofsky should lose.

In-person voting is being strongly discouraged, which will heavily limit turnout in Milwaukee. Dane county, which should be a power-house for Karofsky, is losing tens of thousands of potential votes for her due to students displaced by school closures. Same with other college towns in the state. It'll be surprising if Karofsky wins.

Can't all those people just do mail ballots?

A lot of people don't know how it works and are used to just voting in person. Also, I know of a lot of students who have ordered ballots who've returned home and had their ballots mailed to their University address, who now won't be able to vote. Same with people around the state who normally vote in person and may have requested a ballot in the past few days; if that ballot hasn't come yet, it's unlikely to get to their clerk's office by tomorrow evening.

[brucejoel99]

Welp, as of right now, we're not finding out tomorrow.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Would have said Karofsky up until 3 weeks ago ish, too much has changed now, I expect Kelly to win by 2-7 ish :/.

[bagelman]

Kelly will easily win. Data shows that Republicans don't consider the virus to be as much of a deal as Democrats do. Democrats won't turn out on election day, Republicans will. The state and national supreme courts have both voted on partisan lines to hold the election as scheduled specifically because it benefits Republicans. Democrats on both courts dissented specifically because it benefits Republicans.

[Suburbia]

Kelly will win tomorrow.

The WI GOP is ruthless as the WI Democratic Party.

[brucejoel99]

Kelly will win tomorrow.

The WI GOP is ruthless as the WI Democratic Party.

The WI Democratic Party isn't risking people's lives for votes, no.

[Pericles]

I really hope I'm wrong, but I think the Republican rigging will succeed and Kelly will win.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Kelly will win tomorrow.

The WI GOP is ruthless as the WI Democratic Party.

The WI Democratic Party isn't risking people's lives for votes, no.

#BOTHSIDES Bronze.