End of all-county landslides in OK?

[clever but short]

If all-county landslides in Oklahoma were to become a thing of the past for Republicans, when would you expect that to be?

[Calthrina950]

If all-county landslides in Oklahoma were to become a thing of the past for Republicans, when would you expect that to be?

Probably sometime later this decade, perhaps as soon as 2024. As I've noted elsewhere, Oklahoma County has been trending Democratic since the beginning of this century, and it was Hillary Clinton's best county in the state in 2016-she lost it to Trump by "only" 11% (52-41%). I wouldn't be surprised if it flips, as demographic and political changes accelerate. Tulsa County may flip Democratic sometime in the 2030s, as it too has trended that way.

[walleye26]

What about Cleveland County?

[Tartarus Sauce]

What about Cleveland County?

^This

After a couple of election cycles, Oklahoma County will be won by Democrats by double digits while Cleveland County is won by single digits. Tulsa and Payne County will be only light red/purple by the 2030s. The rest of the state will remain deeply Republican.

[Skill and Chance]

Likely so.  I expect Oklahoma to be more of a Louisiana or South Carolina going forward than a Wyoming or Utah. 

[Calthrina950]

Likely so.  I expect Oklahoma to be more of a Louisiana or South Carolina going forward than a Wyoming or Utah. 

And even those states don't have all-county sweeps for Republicans anymore, with Summit, Teton, and increasingly Salt Lake Counties (and occasionally also Grant County) standing out as strongholds for the Democrats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

sometime in the 2020s or 2030s.

[Del Tachi]

Likely so.  I expect Oklahoma to be more of a Louisiana or South Carolina going forward than a Wyoming or Utah. 

Both Louisiana and South Carolina are approximately 1/3 Black.  Oklahoma is less than 10% Black.  That's why OK votes more like WY than MS.

[Cokeland Saxton]

Likely so.  I expect Oklahoma to be more of a Louisiana or South Carolina going forward than a Wyoming or Utah. 

Both Louisiana and South Carolina are approximately 1/3 Black.  Oklahoma is less than 10% Black.  That's why OK votes more like WY than MS.

Georgia is 1/3 black too, and MS is 37% black (but suffers from very low black turnout), and Georgia also contains a very large metro area, while Oklahoma has two sizeable, but much smaller ones

[clever but short]

Likely so.  I expect Oklahoma to be more of a Louisiana or South Carolina going forward than a Wyoming or Utah. 

Both Louisiana and South Carolina are approximately 1/3 Black.  Oklahoma is less than 10% Black.  That's why OK votes more like WY than MS.

Yes that's an important point. If Oklahoma were to be like LA or SC margin-wise, that would mean Democrats making substantial gains with white suburban voters around the two metro areas. Something like the 2018 gubernatorial map.

If Democrats were to make those types of gains in SC and LA I would think that would result in pretty much 50/50 scenarios.

[Skill and Chance]

Likely so.  I expect Oklahoma to be more of a Louisiana or South Carolina going forward than a Wyoming or Utah. 

Both Louisiana and South Carolina are approximately 1/3 Black.  Oklahoma is less than 10% Black.  That's why OK votes more like WY than MS.

Yes that's an important point. If Oklahoma were to be like LA or SC margin-wise, that would mean Democrats making substantial gains with white suburban voters around the two metro areas. Something like the 2018 gubernatorial map.

If Democrats were to make those types of gains in SC and LA I would think that would result in pretty much 50/50 scenarios.

You're assuming Dems maintain Obama or even Clinton margins with black voters forever.  I don't think that's likely, and it wouldn't take much of a reduction in the margin for R's to cancel out D suburban gains in the South.  If the black vote in 2032 is like the Hispanic vote in 2012, much the South will look pretty much the same in election outcomes.

The big exceptions are Georgia where Atlanta really is big enough to carry the day, and Texas (to the extent it is Southern) where the large cities, acting together, can also carry the day.  Louisiana is special because of the open primary format downballot and how it allows socially conservative Dems and truly economically populist Reps to thrive. 

[clever but short]

Likely so.  I expect Oklahoma to be more of a Louisiana or South Carolina going forward than a Wyoming or Utah. 

Both Louisiana and South Carolina are approximately 1/3 Black.  Oklahoma is less than 10% Black.  That's why OK votes more like WY than MS.

Yes that's an important point. If Oklahoma were to be like LA or SC margin-wise, that would mean Democrats making substantial gains with white suburban voters around the two metro areas. Something like the 2018 gubernatorial map.

If Democrats were to make those types of gains in SC and LA I would think that would result in pretty much 50/50 scenarios.

You're assuming Dems maintain Obama or even Clinton margins with black voters forever.  I don't think that's likely, and it wouldn't take much of a reduction in the margin for R's to cancel out D suburban gains in the South.  If the black vote in 2032 is like the Hispanic vote in 2012, much the South will look pretty much the same in election outcomes.

The big exceptions are Georgia where Atlanta really is big enough to carry the day, and Texas (to the extent it is Southern) where the large cities, acting together, can also carry the day.  Louisiana is special because of the open primary format downballot and how it allows socially conservative Dems and truly economically populist Reps to thrive. 

If Democrats' margins with black voters start looking like that than I would assume major realignment and I would not be eager to make any predictions. There's really no signs of that happening currently.

[Skill and Chance]

Likely so.  I expect Oklahoma to be more of a Louisiana or South Carolina going forward than a Wyoming or Utah. 

Both Louisiana and South Carolina are approximately 1/3 Black.  Oklahoma is less than 10% Black.  That's why OK votes more like WY than MS.

Yes that's an important point. If Oklahoma were to be like LA or SC margin-wise, that would mean Democrats making substantial gains with white suburban voters around the two metro areas. Something like the 2018 gubernatorial map.

If Democrats were to make those types of gains in SC and LA I would think that would result in pretty much 50/50 scenarios.

You're assuming Dems maintain Obama or even Clinton margins with black voters forever.  I don't think that's likely, and it wouldn't take much of a reduction in the margin for R's to cancel out D suburban gains in the South.  If the black vote in 2032 is like the Hispanic vote in 2012, much the South will look pretty much the same in election outcomes.

The big exceptions are Georgia where Atlanta really is big enough to carry the day, and Texas (to the extent it is Southern) where the large cities, acting together, can also carry the day.  Louisiana is special because of the open primary format downballot and how it allows socially conservative Dems and truly economically populist Reps to thrive. 

If Democrats' margins with black voters start looking like that than I would assume major realignment and I would not be eager to make any predictions. There's really no signs of that happening currently.

That was a bit of an overstatement, but I do expect the GOP to cross 20% of the black vote in 2028 or 2032.  Trump is generally polling >10% as it is. 

[It’s so Joever]

Likely so.  I expect Oklahoma to be more of a Louisiana or South Carolina going forward than a Wyoming or Utah. 

Both Louisiana and South Carolina are approximately 1/3 Black.  Oklahoma is less than 10% Black.  That's why OK votes more like WY than MS.

Yes that's an important point. If Oklahoma were to be like LA or SC margin-wise, that would mean Democrats making substantial gains with white suburban voters around the two metro areas. Something like the 2018 gubernatorial map.

If Democrats were to make those types of gains in SC and LA I would think that would result in pretty much 50/50 scenarios.

You're assuming Dems maintain Obama or even Clinton margins with black voters forever.  I don't think that's likely, and it wouldn't take much of a reduction in the margin for R's to cancel out D suburban gains in the South.  If the black vote in 2032 is like the Hispanic vote in 2012, much the South will look pretty much the same in election outcomes.

The big exceptions are Georgia where Atlanta really is big enough to carry the day, and Texas (to the extent it is Southern) where the large cities, acting together, can also carry the day.  Louisiana is special because of the open primary format downballot and how it allows socially conservative Dems and truly economically populist Reps to thrive. 

If Democrats' margins with black voters start looking like that than I would assume major realignment and I would not be eager to make any predictions. There's really no signs of that happening currently.

That was a bit of an overstatement, but I do expect the GOP to cross 20% of the black vote in 2028 or 2032.  Trump is generally polling >10% as it is. 

If the GOP wants to, they definitely could gain some ground on black voters. Maybe that will be their new strategy after Trump. I could see some appeal to the socially-conservative/fiscally-liberal Southern Black voters. Or maybe some #populist appeal to inner-city black voters in a Trump-like fashion. Either way it’s an underrated possibility.