MI (MRG) - Biden +3
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Author Topic: MI (MRG) - Biden +3  (Read 2021 times)
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« on: March 25, 2020, 10:28:00 AM »
Biden - 44
Trump - 41

https://www.mrgmi.com/2020/03/25/ballot-test-race-for-the-white-house-within-the-margin-of-error-with-biden-on-top/
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2020, 10:36:02 AM »
Ugh, not great.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2020, 10:36:34 AM »
Ridiculously high undecided number in this one.
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Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2020, 10:41:18 AM »
Quote from: The Mikado on March 25, 2020, 10:36:34 AM
Ridiculously high undecided number in this one.
It's a B/C rated pollster according to 538.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2020, 10:49:40 AM »
Yep 279 blue wall secure
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2020, 11:47:34 AM »
They should stop polling MI and poll WI more, that is the ballgame and PA too.
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TWTown
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« Reply #6 on: March 25, 2020, 01:00:22 PM »
They really need to push undecideds.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #7 on: March 25, 2020, 03:08:17 PM »

But it's not terrible either.
Smiley
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2020, 04:45:49 PM »
Trump won't beat Biden no matter how much supporters of Trump think his polls are going up. Voters by and large arent blaming Dems, they believe this is a Trump induced recession. Just like Dems realized that Trump was indeed gonna be Prez, Rs have to realize Biden will be Prez. A blue tsunami is still possible with Harrison only down by 4 to Graham. McGrath is catching up to McConnell. Bullock can beat Daines, also Kelly is leading McSally
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2020, 06:21:17 PM »
At this stage, and incumbent running in a statewide race should be getting 43.5% support just to have a 50-50 chance of winning re-election (50% of the share between the two main candidates). The average gain for an incumbent Governor or Senator is about 6.5% from early support by the average campaign against the average opponent.  Figuring that the Presidential race is equivalent potentially to fifty statewide races, one city-wide mayoral race, and five congressional races, and that for a state such as Michigan that Trump barely carried he will need at the least a spirited and competent campaign to win Michigan again (one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin probably wins for him unless something funny happens in Arizona, Florida, or North Carolina)...

it is all up to the President. He must be a competent leader with a looming recession and a nasty infection that can shut down a big chunk of the American economy he will have to turn from average at best to well-above average to make Michigan close. He can win without Michigan, as Dubya showed both in getting elected the first time and in getting re-elected.     
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #10 on: March 25, 2020, 06:22:55 PM »
Not sure how to feel about this...
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Hammy
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« Reply #11 on: March 25, 2020, 07:22:44 PM »

Dems under 50%, even if leading, is not a good thing at state level since we saw how undecideds broke in 2016.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #12 on: March 25, 2020, 11:04:18 PM »
3 points. Not great, not terrible.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #13 on: March 26, 2020, 06:09:44 PM »
Quote from: Hammy on March 25, 2020, 07:22:44 PM

Dems under 50%, even if leading, is not a good thing at state level since we saw how undecideds broke in 2016.

I'm also a bit concerned about what this means for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin at this present time.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: March 27, 2020, 01:03:49 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on March 26, 2020, 06:09:44 PM
Quote from: Hammy on March 25, 2020, 07:22:44 PM

Dems under 50%, even if leading, is not a good thing at state level since we saw how undecideds broke in 2016.

I'm also a bit concerned about what this means for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin at this present time.

PA being the 1st to flip back is increasingly in doubt.  However, Trump is consistently weaker than I expected in MI.  Could this be Biden's minimum win map?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #15 on: March 27, 2020, 03:02:54 PM »
Maybe MI is to Trump what NC was to Obama in 2008/2012, but if he narrowly loses MI, he absolutely has to run the table and sweep all remaining battleground states because I’m pretty sure he’ll lose AZ. And if MI is actually Biden +3, I don’t see Trump winning all of FL/PA/GA/NC/WI.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #16 on: March 27, 2020, 03:09:24 PM »
ME would vote D in such scenario
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #17 on: March 27, 2020, 03:12:58 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on March 27, 2020, 03:02:54 PM
Maybe MI is to Trump what NC was to Obama in 2008/2012, but if he narrowly loses MI, he absolutely has to run the table and sweep all remaining battleground states because I’m pretty sure he’ll lose AZ. And if MI is actually Biden +3, I don’t see Trump winning all of FL/PA/GA/NC/WI.

Dems arent winning without the 278 EC wall, MI, PA and WI are absolutely necessary to win and we should not trust polls 7 mnths before an election
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #18 on: March 27, 2020, 04:31:54 PM »
The map above is preposterous, Dems winning AZ, but losing Pa, that wont happen
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #19 on: March 27, 2020, 05:32:51 PM »
Quote from: Cory Booker on March 27, 2020, 04:31:54 PM
The map above is preposterous, Dems winning AZ, but losing Pa, that wont happen

You are actually 100% correct here. Biden's minimum winning map is still simply flipping the big three.
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SN2903
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« Reply #20 on: March 29, 2020, 12:37:12 PM »
Trump will eek out Mich. James too.
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Badger
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« Reply #21 on: March 31, 2020, 11:54:40 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on March 27, 2020, 01:03:49 PM
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on March 26, 2020, 06:09:44 PM
Quote from: Hammy on March 25, 2020, 07:22:44 PM

Dems under 50%, even if leading, is not a good thing at state level since we saw how undecideds broke in 2016.

I'm also a bit concerned about what this means for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin at this present time.

PA being the 1st to flip back is increasingly in doubt.  However, Trump is consistently weaker than I expected in MI.  Could this be Biden's minimum win map?



Pennsylvania will surely flip before Georgia
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #22 on: April 01, 2020, 01:23:10 AM »
Quote from: SN2903 on March 29, 2020, 12:37:12 PM
Trump will eek out Mich. James too.

Biden is gonna win MI, but we dont know the coronavirus recovery, if it recovers, fine, but it doesnt, Biden is Prez
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #23 on: April 15, 2020, 09:08:00 AM »
New Poll: Michigan President by Marketing Resource Group on 2020-03-20

Summary: D: 44%, R: 41%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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