COVID-19 Megathread 3: Third time's a charm

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The U.S. was flattening the curve until today when those disastrous numbers from California came in.

[It’s so Joever]

The U.S. was flattening the curve until today when those disastrous numbers from California came in.

Don’t forget Georgia and Florida!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The U.S. was flattening the curve until today when those disastrous numbers from California came in.

Don’t forget Georgia and Florida!

There are going to be slight fluctuations, but a really key good sign is that the percentage increases have been going down each day (even if the raw numbers are slightly worse).  That's a good sign that we are starting to slowly turn the tide.  In fact, that was one of the first signs in late January that the Chinese epidemic was starting to peak (which it did sometime around February 1st).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The U.S. was flattening the curve until today when those disastrous numbers from California came in.

Don’t forget Georgia and Florida!

There are going to be slight fluctuations, but a really key good sign is that the percentage increases have been going down each day (even if the raw numbers are slightly worse).  That's a good sign that we are starting to slowly turn the tide.  In fact, that was one of the first signs in late January that the Chinese epidemic was starting to peak (which it did sometime around February 1st).

The rolling average from the past 2 days or the past 3 days isn't as bad as today is. But now it's about to get bad again, all because of California.

[Florida Man for Crime]

You can't deny the data that shows places like California and Washington that began working from home and sheltering in place early have managed to flatten the curve much better than places like New York which denied the problem at the beginning and lost valuable time.

CA has a huge backlog of tests that have been submitted to private labs, but the private labs have not completed them because they are taking more tests than they can actually process (because they want to be the ones that get paid to do the tests). So I would not take the CA data at anything like face value at least until that is sorted out:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/next-covid-19-testing-crisis/609193/

On the surface, the American COVID-19 testing regime has finally hit its stride. Over the past five days, the states have reported a daily average of 104,000 people tested, according to data assembled by the COVID Tracking Project, a volunteer collaboration incubated at The Atlantic. Today, the U.S. reported that 1 million people have been tested for the coronavirus—a milestone that the White House once promised it would hit the first week of March.

But things are not going as smoothly as the top-line numbers might suggest. Our reporting has unearthed a new coronavirus-testing crisis. Its main cause is not the federal government, nor state public-health labs, but the private companies that now dominate the country’s testing capacity. Testing backlogs have ballooned, slowing efficient patient care and delivering a heavily lagged view of the outbreak to decision makers.

Though the problem is national in scope, California is its known epicenter. Over the past week, the most populous state in the union—where the country’s first case of community transmission was identified, in late February—has managed to complete an average of only 2,136 tests each day, far fewer than other similarly populous states, according to our tracking data. Yet California also reports that more than 57,400 people have pending test results. Tens of thousands of Californians have been swabbed for the virus, but their samples have not yet been examined in a lab.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Amen to this:

https://twitter.com/cmyeaton/status/1245165261554176001

US data is a steaming pile of cow dung. For that, we have muh Federalism to thank. Destroy federalism, kill it dead. Note that this is not a problem just for this health data, but also for all sorts of other data as well.

No, we don't need every local county clerk having their own different unique method of recording data.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

We are definitely hitting a million confirmed cases before the end of Friday at this rate

[Green Line]

We are definitely hitting a million confirmed cases before the end of Friday at this rate

The increase in cases tracks almost perfectly with increase in testing.  This is good news.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/dlippman/status/1245153351374974977

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Amen to this:

https://twitter.com/cmyeaton/status/1245165261554176001

US data is a steaming pile of cow dung. For that, we have muh Federalism to thank. Destroy federalism, kill it dead. Note that this is not a problem just for this health data, but also for all sorts of other data as well.

No, we don't need every local county clerk having their own different unique method of recording data.

If not for "Federalism" we would have "official" COVID-19 data that spells out "Donald Trump is awesome". Federalism, for all it's flaws, has saved us from becoming North American's Turkmenistan over the last three years.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I made a couple of charts showing the overall trends in new cases and deaths in the five biggest Western European countries.  Somewhat coincidentally, these five combined have a population almost identical to the US, so this might serve as interesting comparison to the American curve.  You can also see the trends and difference across nations.  I've used a weighted five-day moving average (with the current day 1/3 of the weight) to smooth out daily spikes.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

So, when should we expect cases to level off?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1244761995015884800

[Meclazine for Israel]

Here is a summary video of the analysis of Singapore's response:

Singapore ABC report

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdDpmAt3lxo

"Singapore had years of preparation for this pandemic after suffering during the SARS epidemic of 2003."

The country has a huge advantage is that it is very small, and the existing monitoring of citizens and their activities put them in a very strong position to handle the Corona-virus pandemic.

The separation and isolation of infected people and keeping them away from others is the difference between success and failure under these circumstances.

[Florida Man for Crime]

If not for "Federalism" we would have "official" COVID-19 data that spells out "Donald Trump is awesome". Federalism, for all it's flaws, has saved us from becoming North American's Turkmenistan over the last three years.

If we didn't have Federalism, there would not be an electoral college, and Trump would never have been President. Moreover, if people knew that the people they elected actually had power to implement their policy plans, they might think more carefully about who to vote for.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The corona crisis, or anything emanating from it, is not evidence to refute or bolster the arguments for or against federalism.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Amen to this:

https://twitter.com/cmyeaton/status/1245165261554176001

US data is a steaming pile of cow dung. For that, we have muh Federalism to thank. Destroy federalism, kill it dead. Note that this is not a problem just for this health data, but also for all sorts of other data as well.

No, we don't need every local county clerk having their own different unique method of recording data.

Side note--I always thought it was ridiculous that places like China and South Africa are unitary states while Austria, the UAE, and St. Kitts and Nevis are federations.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Amen to this:

https://twitter.com/cmyeaton/status/1245165261554176001
US data is a steaming pile of cow dung. For that, we have muh Federalism to thank. Destroy federalism, kill it dead. Note that this is not a problem just for this health data, but also for all sorts of other data as well.

No, we don't need every local county clerk having their own different unique method of recording data.

Side note--I always thought it was ridiculous that places like China and South Africa are unitary states while Austria, the UAE, and St. Kitts and Nevis are federations.

I guess in St. Kitts and Nevis you have highly pronounced island identities that discourage a unitary structure?

[T'Chenka]

If Ron DeSantis doesn't get his head out of his a$$ in the next 10-ish days, the "100,000 to 200,000 deaths" that Birx has been using in the last day or two as an ideal outcome might happen in Florida alone, let alone the whole country.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Amen to this:

https://twitter.com/cmyeaton/status/1245165261554176001

US data is a steaming pile of cow dung. For that, we have muh Federalism to thank. Destroy federalism, kill it dead. Note that this is not a problem just for this health data, but also for all sorts of other data as well.

No, we don't need every local county clerk having their own different unique method of recording data.

Side note--I always thought it was ridiculous that places like China and South Africa are unitary states while Austria, the UAE, and St. Kitts and Nevis are federations.

By and large the larger countries are federations.

The most ridiculous thing is that the "country" of England has no government.

Ironically, China is sort of is an extreme federation with 3 entities, mainland China, Macau, and Hong Kong, each with their own passports, visa rules, currency, and postal service.

[Smeulders]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/

Not much news, but a nice write-up about all of the uncertainty surrounding modelling this disease.

[wbrocks67]

If Ron DeSantis doesn't get his head out of his a$$ in the next 10-ish days, the "100,000 to 200,000 deaths" that Birx has been using in the last day or two as an ideal outcome might happen in Florida alone, let alone the whole country.

Doesn't look likely - just yesterday he was saying he hasn't placed a stay at home order for the state because Trump hasn't directed him to do so. Yikes

[Meclazine for Israel]

Here is an excellent series of lectures on the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.

Spanish Flu Pandemic Part 1

Bruce E. Fleury, PhD.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MHT5xTkL2g

(Part 2 and Part 3 play next in the series)

This guy has excellent knowledge on the actual building blocks of the science behind what we are seeing, and explains the 1918 pandemic with an educated approach which I am sure people here will get a lot out of, regardless of your level of knowledge of epidemiology and virology.

Throws in a bit of political history as well which will keep the masses enthralled.

[wbrocks67]

Grinnell College National Poll, March 27-30

Is this a source of COVID-19 information you completely trust, mostly trust, mostly distrust or completely distrust?

Donald Trump

Completely trust: 16%
Mostly trust: 30%
Mostly distrust: 18%
Completely distrust: 32%

More people distrust the president than trust him in a time of crisis.

https://www.grinnell.edu/news/americans-showing-resolve-through-covid-19-crisis