COVID-19 Megathread 3: Third time's a charm

[MABA 2020]

UK Parliament just shut down for a month yesterday.  MP's are packed even more tightly together than our House Reps (people sitting right next to each other, MP's standing shoulder to shoulder, etc.)

Its not an ideal setup is it?

Ah yes, the worth of a setup of a governmental assembly is to be decided solely by how easily coronavirus spreads in it. Whatever happened to things like history, tradition, number of reps, chamber size, and so on - one disease with rather unusual traits and the type of which comes along once every dozen years at most is the sole judge!

He clearly meant that it's not an ideal setup in the context of transmission of the disease that (checks top of page) is in fact the topic of this thread.  This is objectively true.

if that is all that was meant I apologize.
My mind was thinking paranoia on corona was going so far as to make people want to question the very worth of their institutional traditions insofar as to procedure.
Helsinkian seems to be doing that elsewhere...but I misfired here.

Yeah I didn't mean to suggest we should change the setup of the legislature permanently just for the coronavirus, but we need to be thinking about how parliament can continue to function without meeting in person.

[Sir Mohamed]

It was clear from the beginning the pandemic wasn't gone in the PRC, or it would return once they go back to business as usual.

I'm aware prediction sounds dark, but I can just repeat: The pandemic won't go away in any country unless there is enough immunity. Ergo, with 1 person infecting 3 more on average, the magic number is (about) 66%. Unless 66% are immune, the virus will continue to spread before a saturation can occur. This mass immunity can only happen by enough infections or vaccine. Latter takes months we don't have for an ongoing shutdown. I know, not a good outlook, but arguably the most likely one. Maybe we can keep number of infected people under control before vaccine is available, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

UK Parliament just shut down for a month yesterday.  MP's are packed even more tightly together than our House Reps (people sitting right next to each other, MP's standing shoulder to shoulder, etc.)

Its not an ideal setup is it?

Ah yes, the worth of a setup of a governmental assembly is to be decided solely by how easily coronavirus spreads in it. Whatever happened to things like history, tradition, number of reps, chamber size, and so on - one disease with rather unusual traits and the type of which comes along once every dozen years at most is the sole judge!

He clearly meant that it's not an ideal setup in the context of transmission of the disease that (checks top of page) is in fact the topic of this thread.  This is objectively true.

if that is all that was meant I apologize.
My mind was thinking paranoia on corona was going so far as to make people want to question the very worth of their institutional traditions insofar as to procedure.
Helsinkian seems to be doing that elsewhere...but I misfired here.

Yeah I didn't mean to suggest we should change the setup of the legislature permanently just for the coronavirus, but we need to be thinking about how parliament can continue to function without meeting in person.

You aren't the only people to face this problem. Like here in "the States", we have a Senate with a somewhat similar "you must be present to vote" tradition.
My guess is that you might have to create some sort of app or something? It's a difficult matter to weigh.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294816777252865
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294819952230402

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1243565732224524299

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1243567585905594368

[Del Tachi]

snip

"It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job, a depression once you lose yours."

The more discernible and direct the impacts of the global shutdown become, the less and less willing people will be able to suffer the consequences.

[Del Tachi]

It was clear from the beginning the pandemic wasn't gone in the PRC, or it would return once they go back to business as usual.

I'm aware prediction sounds dark, but I can just repeat: The pandemic won't go away in any country unless there is enough immunity. Ergo, with 1 person infecting 3 more on average, the magic number is (about) 66%. Unless 66% are immune, the virus will continue to spread before a saturation can occur. This mass immunity can only happen by enough infections or vaccine. Latter takes months we don't have for an ongoing shutdown. I know, not a good outlook, but arguably the most likely one. Maybe we can keep number of infected people under control before vaccine is available, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Yup.  We need this thing to spread around relatively quickly so we can achieve population level immunity without waiting 12-18 months to develop a potential vaccine.  Vaccination is no silver bullet (because of distributional effects; are vulnerable populations in SSA and PNG going to have access to a COVID-19 vaccine?  what's it going to cost here in the U.S.?) + a misplaced optimism that a inoculating agent can even be developed (we don't have vaccines for other coronaviruses like SARS/MERS, despite these diseases being with us now for the greater part of two decades).

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1243567585905594368

So now Dems are both the Pro-Choice and the Pro-Life party.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It was clear from the beginning the pandemic wasn't gone in the PRC, or it would return once they go back to business as usual.

I'm aware prediction sounds dark, but I can just repeat: The pandemic won't go away in any country unless there is enough immunity. Ergo, with 1 person infecting 3 more on average, the magic number is (about) 66%. Unless 66% are immune, the virus will continue to spread before a saturation can occur. This mass immunity can only happen by enough infections or vaccine. Latter takes months we don't have for an ongoing shutdown. I know, not a good outlook, but arguably the most likely one. Maybe we can keep number of infected people under control before vaccine is available, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Yup.  We need this thing to spread around relatively quickly so we can achieve population level immunity without waiting 12-18 months to develop a potential vaccine.  Vaccination is no silver bullet (because of distributional effects; are vulnerable populations in SSA and PNG going to have access to a COVID-19 vaccine?  what's it going to cost here in the U.S.?) + a misplaced optimism that a inoculating agent can even be developed (we don't have vaccines for other coronaviruses like SARS/MERS, despite these diseases being with us now for the greater part of two decades).

I understand that people want to be as optimistic as possible and hug any good news as tightly as they can.  Good news is always welcome at this point.  

But it makes my heart sink a little bit when I see an article entitled "Switzerland Begins Tests on COVID-19 Vaccine" with scores of comments along the lines of "so relieved! This thing will end soon."

It's a lot slower a process than the general public seems to perceive and testing doesn't necessarily mean the developers have picked a sure winner.  

[Florida Man for Crime]

Yup.  We need this thing to spread around relatively quickly so we can achieve population level immunity without waiting 12-18 months to develop a potential vaccine.

I am in favor of a deliberate self-infection program for people such as yourself who want to get the virus. For a small fee just covering the costs, you should be able to order up a sample of the virus. Then you can infect yourself with it. To participate in the program, you must make a legally binding agreement that you will self-quarantine for a sufficiently long period (not sure how much) after infecting yourself, and you also waive any medical care should you need it. If you fail to self-quarantine as you agree, then this is severely punished. Then, once you have recovered, assuming you do recover and have immunity, then you can go about your life and will have contributed to the population immunity that you want to exist.

[roxas11]

For once I actually agree with trump on something

Kentucky congressman Thomas Massie is a fool for doing this stunt to block stimulus bill and forcing House members to head back to DC in middle of a pandemic just for this foolishness

He is putting people lives at risk just for a stunt that he knows full well will not stop the bill from passing. its pointless move that does nothing but put many lives in great danger


look Im have made it clear that Im also not the biggest fan of the stimulus bill but even I think this stunt is both dangerous and reckless. if he goes through with this there will be will be blood on his hands.....

[GP270watch]

  Of those who get Covid-19 and survive some will get irreversible damage to their organs that will compromise quality of life for years going forward. People should really top saying ignorant things. It is best to never get this virus at all.

[Del Tachi]

Yup.  We need this thing to spread around relatively quickly so we can achieve population level immunity without waiting 12-18 months to develop a potential vaccine.

I am in favor of a deliberate self-infection program for people such as yourself who want to get the virus. For a small fee just covering the costs, you should be able to order up a sample of the virus. Then you can infect yourself with it. To participate in the program, you must make a legally binding agreement that you will self-quarantine for a sufficiently long period (not sure how much) after infecting yourself, and you also waive any medical care should you need it. If you fail to self-quarantine as you agree, then this is severely punished. Then, once you have recovered, assuming you do recover and have immunity, then you can go about your life and will have contributed to the population immunity that you want to exist.

We just need a serological test.  That's the key to understanding the true scope of the pandemic and calibrating an appropriate public response.

A serological test would show us a) how widespread the virus is within the population and b) the true case fatality rate including mild/asymptomatic cases.  (A) is probably being understated right now, while (B) is being over-inflated.  The result?  Overreactions.

[GeorgiaModerate]

For once I actually agree with trump on something

Kentucky congressman Thomas Massie is a fool for doing this stunt to block stimulus bill and forcing House members to head back to DC in middle of a pandemic just for this foolishness

He is putting people lives at risk just for a stunt that he knows full well will not stop the bill from passing. its pointless move that does nothing but put many lives in great danger


look Im have made it clear that Im also not the biggest fan of the stimulus bill but even I think this stunt is both dangerous and reckless. if he goes through with this there will be will be blood on his hands.....

Even John Kerry is agreeing with Trump on this one:

https://twitter.com/JohnKerry/status/1243552337429438464

Does Massie have any credible primary opposition this year?

[Florida Man for Crime]

We just need a serological test.  That's the key to understanding the true scope of the pandemic and calibrating an appropriate public response.

China has been conducting some in Wuhan, we will hopefully find out results within the next week or 2.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

For once I actually agree with trump on something

Kentucky congressman Thomas Massie is a fool for doing this stunt to block stimulus bill and forcing House members to head back to DC in middle of a pandemic just for this foolishness

He is putting people lives at risk just for a stunt that he knows full well will not stop the bill from passing. its pointless move that does nothing but put many lives in great danger


look Im have made it clear that Im also not the biggest fan of the stimulus bill but even I think this stunt is both dangerous and reckless. if he goes through with this there will be will be blood on his hands.....

Even John Kerry is agreeing with Trump on this one:

https://twitter.com/JohnKerry/status/1243552337429438464

Does Massie have any credible primary opposition this year?

Posted this over on the stimulus bill thread, but as of a few hours ago, Massie was apparently still digging in his heels.  

According to FOX News, Republican House leaders have been trying in vain to get Massie to drop his protests:

Fox News is told there is deep worry on both sides of the aisle that Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., could try to sidetrack House plans to quickly approve the coronavirus bill via a “voice vote” -- a verbal exercise in which those in favor shout yea, and those opposed holler nay. The loudest side would prevail.

“It’s the Thomas Massie show,” said one senior Republican source who asked to not be identified.

“He is going to do it,” a senior Republican leadership source told Fox News, explaining that leadership had tried every type of arm twisting -- and it's not working. The source said he was actively calling members and telling them to get on planes in the morning to come back to Washington, so that a quorum of 216 members could be established if Massie or another member were to demand one.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/extreme-precautions-ordered-in-house-ahead-of-historic-vote-on-largest-stimulus-package-in-us-history.amp

[Podgy the Bear]

Massie is fast becoming Jeanette Rankin, the only member of the House to vote against the WWII declaration.

At least they didn't stop the vote on the declaration of war in 1941.  This scumbag Massie is literally draining the emotional health of millions of Americans on an hourly basis.

[Hammy]

For once I actually agree with trump on something

Kentucky congressman Thomas Massie is a fool for doing this stunt to block stimulus bill and forcing House members to head back to DC in middle of a pandemic just for this foolishness

He is putting people lives at risk just for a stunt that he knows full well will not stop the bill from passing. its pointless move that does nothing but put many lives in great danger


look Im have made it clear that Im also not the biggest fan of the stimulus bill but even I think this stunt is both dangerous and reckless. if he goes through with this there will be will be blood on his hands.....

The stimulus bill does nothing to get more supplies out there. Passing this while saying $1bn is too much for ventilators and such is outright murder.

[PragmaticPopulist]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-pushes-to-open-up-the-country-as-governors-in-hard-hit-states-warn-more-needs-to-be-done-to-combat-pandemic/2020/03/26/6f426042-6fa5-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html

Though the president has faced mounting bipartisan calls to use his powers to compel private companies to help, he has said he is employing the law as leverage to win voluntary cooperation. His campaign on Thursday tweeted a list of major corporations, including 3M, that have said they will increase production of such supplies.

Behind the scenes, business leaders have lobbied Trump not to invoke the law and conservative advisers have warned the president that doing so would draw a backlash and could cut into his argument of running against socialism in the fall, said two administration officials.

Apparently Trump isn't invoking the Defense Production Act because it would undercut him running campaign against "socialism".

[GP270watch]

+919 deaths in Italy, a significant jump from their trend line which seemed like it was plateauing and the highest daily total for this country and anywhere since the pandemic started.

[Florida Man for Crime]

For once I actually agree with trump on something

Kentucky congressman Thomas Massie is a fool for doing this stunt to block stimulus bill and forcing House members to head back to DC in middle of a pandemic just for this foolishness

He is putting people lives at risk just for a stunt that he knows full well will not stop the bill from passing. its pointless move that does nothing but put many lives in great danger


look Im have made it clear that Im also not the biggest fan of the stimulus bill but even I think this stunt is both dangerous and reckless. if he goes through with this there will be will be blood on his hands.....

The stimulus bill does nothing to get more supplies out there. Passing this while saying $1bn is too much for ventilators and such is outright murder.

Regardless of how effective the stimulus is or is not, if Massie goes forward with his stunt, that forces all the other members of Congress to book plane tickets and travel to DC in order to stop him. In the process of this extra and unnecessary travel and meetings/gatherings/close contact, the virus will probably get spread further, and contributing to the spread of the virus costs lives.

[roxas11]

For once I actually agree with trump on something

Kentucky congressman Thomas Massie is a fool for doing this stunt to block stimulus bill and forcing House members to head back to DC in middle of a pandemic just for this foolishness

He is putting people lives at risk just for a stunt that he knows full well will not stop the bill from passing. its pointless move that does nothing but put many lives in great danger


look Im have made it clear that Im also not the biggest fan of the stimulus bill but even I think this stunt is both dangerous and reckless. if he goes through with this there will be will be blood on his hands.....

The stimulus bill does nothing to get more supplies out there. Passing this while saying $1bn is too much for ventilators and such is outright murder.

I agree that this bill does not do nearly enough but that does not change the fact that Massie is putting people lives at risk for a bill that he knows will pass anyway

[parochial boy]

+919 deaths in Italy, a significant jump from their trend line which seemed like it was plateauing and the highest daily total for this country and anywhere since the pandemic started.

5'900 new cases, which is more or less in line with the ca 6'000 a day that it has been recording over the last 7-10 days. So it does seem like case numbers are plateauing in a way that does seem to give me hope that they are currently at the peak. Deaths are a lagging indicator, so it's not necessarily a surprise that they're still increasing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Massie says he will insist on a recorded vote, per NYT.