COVID-19 Megathread 3: Third time's a charm

[ProudModerate2]

There are still so many areas of the country where a nationwide lockdown doesn’t make any sense.  My own region has only had one confirmed case.  It was a kid at a nearby college coming back from spring break.   There is still no evidence of community spread here.  This sort of situation can still be effectively combated through testing and tracing like Korea did so successfully.

...IF you have near-universal availability of tests.  We're far from it in the US.

A general comment (not directed specifically at you, NickG):

Why do most people here see this as an either/or strategy?  Don't you see that there's a middle course is optimal for both the economy and public health?  Lock things down now before they get worse, then lift restrictions in places where a large outbreak is not current when more testing is available to implement widespread testing and tracing.  That way you minimize the current effects and get back to normal as quickly as possible (where "normal" means both more economic activity and no widespread outbreak).

Determining how/when to lift restrictions is a function of testing availability and current local health conditions.  This should be susceptible to optimization by public health experts.

No one is gonna consent to an open-ended house arrest order. That's the real reason there is so much opposition to a National lockdown. The proposed time frames keep getting longer and more insane and then conclude with "but it could take even longer". Schit, Jacobin was demanding EIGHT MONTHS minimum of National house arrest.

AFAIK, Jacobin isn't in a position of government authority.    The point is to buy time in small increments, like 2 or 3 weeks. 

Nobody likes being stuck indoors, and even then I don't think anyone is proposing a 100% house arrest; even in the locked-down locations in the US, you can still go out for essential functions.  But sometimes the situation is serious enough that it calls for some sacrifices on the part of citizens.  I remember my mother talking about rationing during WW2.  If the American public could put up with that inconvenience for the sake of the war effort, have we really become so selfish that we can't put up with a temporary restriction on movement for the sake of everyone's health?

All I'm going to say is that a lot of us find the comparison of Coronavirus to World War 2 such an obscene false equivalency that it immediately shuts down any hope of our respective positions reconciling on prevention strategies.

No one is saying CoronaVirus is the same as WWII. Dont be foolish.
We are talking about the sacrifices people make/made to "normal everyday activities", that could be similar in nature.

[Xing]

Social Distancing may be working as infection rate slows down in Washington....

Gov. Jay Inslee said Thursday morning that the infection rate from the coronavirus in Washington state is slowing compared to other states.

Using data from other states, with a starting point of when each state had 20 infections, Washington has seen at least a "slight reduction" in the rate of acceleration.

https://www.king5.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/a-glimmer-of-hope-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/281-5269288d-9fe8-4ee6-a2a4-1d5f4f29c836

Unfortunately, as soon as he said that, it looks like we’ve had one of our worst days yet. Over 400 new cases, topping 3,000 overall. Hopefully it’s just an outlier and not a sign of what’s to come.

Edit: Actually, over 600 new cases today.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I think the worst aspect of this is nobody can say how long it takes and how it ends. My biggest fear is that we will reach a point where it's either total economic crash through ongoing lockdowns in an effort to keep the numbers down, or basically "sacrifice" those who don't recover by themselves. Would be a terrible, terrible choice to make. We need vaccine as fast as possible.

Keeping the country/world shut down into the middle of next year when a vaccine will be ready is just not a viable option. The people in leadership need to view that as unacceptable and figure something else out.

The obstacle to ending a lockdown is lack of testing. If you reopen public spaces (including restaurants, non-essential stores, etc.) without any idea who may have the virus, it's just going to spread through the public again.

We should end shut downs when the following are in place:

1) Massive testing capabilities - know who has the virus
2) Trace any people who have contact with an infected person - prioritize testing these people
3) Quarantine anybody who has tested positive - lower their rate of transmission

That way people who aren't infected can freely and safely interact with people who won't infect them. One of the advantages of keeping shelters in place in the meanwhile is it lowers the number of infected individuals who will need to be quarantined when testing is available, and consequently means more people will be able to resume some semblance of normal life.

Also I don't really know why Mr. Reactionary is posting in this thread and why people are engaging with him. Honestly he is acting as hysterically if not more than most people concerned about the virus. People should just ignore him. He's either here to get a rise or to cosplay a liberterrorist. That's just not interesting to me and would like it if people did me a solid and stopped indulging him.

[JA]

https://twitter.com/MazMHussain/status/1243214629674852354?s=19

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/MazMHussain/status/1243214629674852354?s=19

Everything he has done is designed to destabilize our alliances & society as a whole.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There are still so many areas of the country where a nationwide lockdown doesn’t make any sense.  My own region has only had one confirmed case.  It was a kid at a nearby college coming back from spring break.   There is still no evidence of community spread here.  This sort of situation can still be effectively combated through testing and tracing like Korea did so successfully.

...IF you have near-universal availability of tests.  We're far from it in the US.

A general comment (not directed specifically at you, NickG):

Why do most people here see this as an either/or strategy?  Don't you see that there's a middle course is optimal for both the economy and public health?  Lock things down now before they get worse, then lift restrictions in places where a large outbreak is not current when more testing is available to implement widespread testing and tracing.  That way you minimize the current effects and get back to normal as quickly as possible (where "normal" means both more economic activity and no widespread outbreak).

Determining how/when to lift restrictions is a function of testing availability and current local health conditions.  This should be susceptible to optimization by public health experts.

No one is gonna consent to an open-ended house arrest order. That's the real reason there is so much opposition to a National lockdown. The proposed time frames keep getting longer and more insane and then conclude with "but it could take even longer". Schit, Jacobin was demanding EIGHT MONTHS minimum of National house arrest.

AFAIK, Jacobin isn't in a position of government authority.    The point is to buy time in small increments, like 2 or 3 weeks. 

Nobody likes being stuck indoors, and even then I don't think anyone is proposing a 100% house arrest; even in the locked-down locations in the US, you can still go out for essential functions.  But sometimes the situation is serious enough that it calls for some sacrifices on the part of citizens.  I remember my mother talking about rationing during WW2.  If the American public could put up with that inconvenience for the sake of the war effort, have we really become so selfish that we can't put up with a temporary restriction on movement for the sake of everyone's health?

All I'm going to say is that a lot of us find the comparison of Coronavirus to World War 2 such an obscene false equivalency that it immediately shuts down any hope of our respective positions reconciling on prevention strategies.

I'm not trying to say they are equivalent.  Both are times of national emergency, but they differ greatly in scale.  The virus shouldn't last nearly as long as WW2 -- however, it does have the potential to kill as many, if not more, Americans as the war did.

OTOH, if your position is that this isn't a time of national emergency, requiring an emergency response, then you're correct: there's no common ground for us to discuss appropriate strategies.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think the worst aspect of this is nobody can say how long it takes and how it ends. My biggest fear is that we will reach a point where it's either total economic crash through ongoing lockdowns in an effort to keep the numbers down, or basically "sacrifice" those who don't recover by themselves. Would be a terrible, terrible choice to make. We need vaccine as fast as possible.

Keeping the country/world shut down into the middle of next year when a vaccine will be ready is just not a viable option. The people in leadership need to view that as unacceptable and figure something else out.

The obstacle to ending a lockdown is lack of testing. If you reopen public spaces (including restaurants, non-essential stores, etc.) without any idea who may have the virus, it's just going to spread through the public again.

We should end shut downs when the following are in place:

1) Massive testing capabilities - know who has the virus
2) Trace any people who have contact with an infected person - prioritize testing these people
3) Quarantine anybody who has tested positive - lower their rate of transmission

That way people who aren't infected can freely and safely interact with people who won't infect them. One of the advantages of keeping shelters in place in the meanwhile is it lowers the number of infected individuals who will need to be quarantined when testing is available, and consequently means more people will be able to resume some semblance of normal life.

Also I don't really know why Mr. Reactionary is posting in this thread and why people are engaging with him. Honestly he is acting as hysterically if not more than most people concerned about the virus. People should just ignore him. He's either here to get a rise or to cosplay a liberterrorist. That's just not interesting to me and would like it if people did me a solid and stopped indulging him.

I totally agree with all three of these.  We really should be exerting our efforts toward universal testing rather that prolonged lockdowns.  It is outrageous that the government has not commandeered every manufacturer and facility that could quickly be converted toward creating and processing tests.  Like, it 23andMe still doing their silly DNA tests right now?  How has this administration gotten away with such pervasive dishonesty and apathy on this issue?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/MazMHussain/status/1243214629674852354?s=19

So stupid.  All of our troops should be deployed right now doing virus testing and treatment.

[parochial boy]

There are still so many areas of the country where a nationwide lockdown doesn’t make any sense.  My own region has only had one confirmed case.  It was a kid at a nearby college coming back from spring break.   There is still no evidence of community spread here.  This sort of situation can still be effectively combated through testing and tracing like Korea did so successfully.

There are exactly ZERO counties where a nation wide lockdown doesnt make sense - it would have been necessary 3 weeks ago at the latest. Now - everithing short of a total lockdown of all the country for 2 months will be absolutely insufficient. It only helps if no one spreading the virus is going in or out of a given area, and thus, not only state borders, but usually ALL county borders need to be shut, until it's clear that there are no active cases anymore. The US is already in a much worse situtation than China ever was.  
I can't actually imagine how the US might survive - forget about elections in a far distant future like november - there is either a coup in favour of a national unity governement - enforcing total lockdown for 2 months - or a civil war. (can't see a national unity government lead by Trump, Pence or Pelosi). May be Trump tries to rescue him self by starting an external war ("liberating Venezuela" - this wont work because civil war in the US is still more likely, and will cost the US all allies) or "destroing China - taking "revenge" for the "Chinese Virus" - if its the later, there is little hope for humanity left....

How does someone in Switzerland know what’s going on in rural American better than someone actually living in one of these communities right now?

Well at this point yesterday we’d recorded a higher number of cases per capita than any other country in the world. Italy took back that dubious crown today, but still, the virus is a very present threat here for people to nearly unanimously (96% support according to polling) support the measures that have been put in place. Not on the same level as France or Italy, but stringent nonetheless.

FWIW, on the 15th of March the US and Switzerland both recorded 850 new cases. Today the US is at 15,000 and climbing while Switzerland recorded... 860. A decline in new cases for the 5th time in 6 days. Worth thinking about, surely?

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1243298950083424256

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Here’s an article from WP with a lot of stats about who is dying from the virus in the US.

This quote really stood out to me:

Data that shows at least 96 percent of those who died as of Wednesday had underlying conditions

Is it possible that by focusing on the age of the victims, we are actually missing what is really determining who gets seriously ill from the virus?  Based on this data, if we successfully shielded everyone with preexisting conditions from the virus (young and old), we would eliminate almost all fatalities.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Well at this point yesterday we’d recorded a higher number of cases per capita than any other country in the world. Italy took back that dubious crown today, but still, the virus is a very present threat here for people to nearly unanimously (96% support according to polling) support the measures that have been put in place. Not on the same level as France or Italy, but stringent nonetheless.

FWIW, on the 15th of March the US and Switzerland both recorded 850 new cases. Today the US is at 15,000 and climbing while Switzerland recorded... 860. A decline in new cases for the 5th time in 6 days. Worth thinking about, surely?

That’s actually my point.  Someone close to the center of the outbreak is going to weight the cost/benefit analysis of a lockdown much differently than someone living in a remote area with very few cases and no evidence of community spread.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/MazMHussain/status/1243214629674852354?s=19

Obviously every Canadian is currently planning on how to sneak into a country with a higher rate of coronavirus that has the most expensive healthcare in the world.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2020/03/white-house-credentialed-pundit-says-god-sent-coronavirus-kill-jews/

Rick Wiles of the website TruNews has continued his far-right conspiracy theories around coronavirus, now saying that coronavirus is God’s way of “dealing with people who oppose his son, Jesus Christ.” That is, Jews.

Wiles was discussing how the government of Israel is considering a lockdown in order to stop the spread of the virus, a measure that many other countries have already taken, and telling people to stay away from places of worship where the virus can be easily spread, another measure that majority-Christian countries in Europe took weeks ago.

“This is a report from Israel,” Wiles said, waving his hands about how not-anti-Semitic he is. “That’s not an anti-Israel report!… They are admitting that the virus clusters are in the synagogues.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2020/03/white-house-credentialed-pundit-says-god-sent-coronavirus-kill-jews/

Rick Wiles of the website TruNews has continued his far-right conspiracy theories around coronavirus, now saying that coronavirus is God’s way of “dealing with people who oppose his son, Jesus Christ.” That is, Jews.

Wiles was discussing how the government of Israel is considering a lockdown in order to stop the spread of the virus, a measure that many other countries have already taken, and telling people to stay away from places of worship where the virus can be easily spread, another measure that majority-Christian countries in Europe took weeks ago.

“This is a report from Israel,” Wiles said, waving his hands about how not-anti-Semitic he is. “That’s not an anti-Israel report!… They are admitting that the virus clusters are in the synagogues.

Georgia clergy on call with governor told ‘virtually’ all outbreaks have some link to religious services

[brucejoel99]

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2020/03/white-house-credentialed-pundit-says-god-sent-coronavirus-kill-jews/

Rick Wiles of the website TruNews has continued his far-right conspiracy theories around coronavirus, now saying that coronavirus is God’s way of “dealing with people who oppose his son, Jesus Christ.” That is, Jews.

Wiles was discussing how the government of Israel is considering a lockdown in order to stop the spread of the virus, a measure that many other countries have already taken, and telling people to stay away from places of worship where the virus can be easily spread, another measure that majority-Christian countries in Europe took weeks ago.

“This is a report from Israel,” Wiles said, waving his hands about how not-anti-Semitic he is. “That’s not an anti-Israel report!… They are admitting that the virus clusters are in the synagogues.

Y'all go ahead & pile your hoards of evangelicals into red-state churches for Easter with underfunded hospitals too far away to help, & let's see who it is that God wants dead.

[roxas11]

Fox News just released their poll on Trump response to the coronavirus and On the surface it has decent news for the president since it shows him getting a bump for his handling of the virus but it also has major warning signs for both him and the GOP going forward  

89 percent are very or somewhat concerned the pandemic will cause a recession and 77 percent fear it will cause financial hardship for their family.  Nearly as many worry about their ability to access needed health care services (74 percent) and get tested for the virus (70 percent).Overall, 33 percent of voters rate the economy positively, down from 55 percent in January.  A plurality of 40 percent thinks the economy will get worse next year, up from 25 percent a year ago

But by far the Biggest news is that Most american Blame the US Government for the virus spreading in the US in the first place

By a 53-34 percent margin, more believe a quicker response from the federal government could have slowed the spread of coronavirus in the U.S. than say it is so contagious that nothing could have prevented it spreading the way it has.  Some 30 percent of Republicans join 73 percent of Democrats in saying the government could have made a difference had it acted faster.

In other words they are not buying Trumps argument that this was simply all china fault and he did all he could to stop the spread in the US. that is Big deal since things will not get easier from here because if the american people are already saying that now I can only imagine what these same polls are going to look like when people really start feeling the Pain of this upcoming recession while the coronavirus continues to take even more lives.

As bad as thing seem right now I do remain hopeful that there will be some light at the end of this very dark tunnel

[FrancoAgo]

Well at this point yesterday we’d recorded a higher number of cases per capita than any other country in the world. Italy took back that dubious crown today, but still, the virus is a very present threat here for people to nearly unanimously (96% support according to polling) support the measures that have been put in place. Not on the same level as France or Italy, but stringent nonetheless.

FWIW, on the 15th of March the US and Switzerland both recorded 850 new cases. Today the US is at 15,000 and climbing while Switzerland recorded... 860. A decline in new cases for the 5th time in 6 days. Worth thinking about, surely?

actually the higher number of cases per capita crown is in San Marino

[It’s so Joever]

Trump is apparently denying ventilators to certain States based on political affiliation all because he feels offended. To make it more clear, that would mean that this is a deliberate murder of people due to location and political tendencies. In other words, Trump is committing a literal genocide. If this post gets removed for being an “exaggeration” it will be proof that Trump has shifted the Overton window so much as to allow mass murder to be okay.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/3/25/21193803/trump-to-governors-coronavirus-help-ventilators-cuomo

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Highest Daily Growth in Corona-Virus Total Cases by Country.

1   94.1%   Ghana
2   49.2%   Turkey
3   37.0%   Kazakhstan
4   35.2%   Ukraine
5   33.2%   Estonia
6   31.2%   Azerbaijan
7   30.7%   South Africa
8   27.7%   Russia
9   26.3%   Belgium
10   24.5%   Dominican Republic

(https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

These are countries entering the upward 'curve'.

Russia, and surrounding states starting to gather cases. South Africa is a real concern given the health situation of the populations in southern Africa. Testing in Africa will be very diminished due to the lack of medical professionals and resources.

Meanwhile, Asian countries with prolonged exposure such as China and South Korea are enjoying a consistent decrease in cases. Japan has remarkably low infection rate and an extremely low number of Active cases (<1,000).

South Korea appears to be on top of the pandemic and is at the 3/4 mark of the curve.



South Korea has had an 11 day successive decrease in active cases.

Now decreasing to around half the number of cases at its peak on March 11 2020. Singapore and Hong Kong looking good as well in terms of managing the case spread.



Italy has nearly peaked in growth rate (21 March 2020 was the highest recorded growth), and will hopefully decrease in growth of Active Cases as it approaches the top of the curve.

A rough prediction of peak number of Active cases in Italy based on mathematical curve fitting analysis would say 90,000-100,000 cases in mid-April. This all depend on a decrease in the growth rate at a consistent rate.

When plotted on the same scale as Italy, the USA has a much higher growth rate in Active Cases.



United States. The bell curve of Active cases in the USA is going to be very steep based on a predictable and continuing increase in the growth rate.

[FrancoAgo]

for the fans of testing and not lock down
in US you are around 330 millions, to 2 tests a week, are 660 millions of tests a week at 30 $ each are around 20 billion at week,
ever if there is a capability to do 100 million of tests a day...

[JA]

Here’s an article from WP with a lot of stats about who is dying from the virus in the US.

This quote really stood out to me:

Data that shows at least 96 percent of those who died as of Wednesday had underlying conditions

Is it possible that by focusing on the age of the victims, we are actually missing what is really determining who gets seriously ill from the virus?  Based on this data, if we successfully shielded everyone with preexisting conditions from the virus (young and old), we would eliminate almost all fatalities.

60% of all Americans have at least one chronic condition and 40% have two or more. Even among the non-senior adult population (18-65) up to half (~129,000,000) have a chronic underlying condition.

America is a particularly unhealthy nation with a high percentage of its population part of a vulnerable category. The mortality rate in China for covid-19 patients with heart disease was 10.5%. 12.1% of American adults (~30,300,000) live with heart disease. If even half of this population (and that's being conservative) contracted the virus (~15,700,000) with a mortality rate of 10.5%, just think what could happen. That doesn't account for patients with diabetes who constitute 10.5% of the population (34,200,000) whose mortality rate is 7.3% (commonly occurs alongside cardiovascular disease) or the other chronic underlying health conditions that can make this particularly deadly.

America is the most unhealthy affluent country in the world; we have also proven that with Trump we are the least prepared affluent country in the world. This will not end well.

[Green Line]

Dr. Birx dismisses doomsday predictions.  We're told to listen to the experts.  I'll listen to her.  Some people on here need to listen to this.

The alarmist report from Imperial College has been revised way down.  20,000 dead in UK is their newest prediction, down for hundreds of thousands.

There are still significant ICU beds and ventilators left unused in NYC, in the thousands.  No situation in the US that warrants DNR rumors.

https://twitter.com/jasonrantz/status/1243310401774735361

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm sick of excuse after excuse after excuse by the media about how "we can't test."

[Podgy the Bear]

Dr. Birx dismisses doomsday predictions.  We're told to listen to the experts.  I'll listen to her.  Some people on here need to listen to this.

The alarmist report from Imperial College has been revised way down.  20,000 dead in UK is their newest prediction, down for hundreds of thousands.

Wow, 20,000 dead in the UK is equivalent to 100,000 dead here in the United States.  Is that not doomsday?