COVID-19 Megathread 3: Third time's a charm

[Meclazine for Israel]

Let's hope these Chinese masks are more reliable than the ones they sent to Europe.

You can add Australia to that list.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-01/coronavirus-chinese-ppe-border-force-intercepted/12085908

China are not sending their best.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1245828490907152385?s=20

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Ugh, stop it. Trump's brilliant decision gave US 2 weeks or so. Some States Officials used it well (CA), some did NOT (NY).

CA, despite having large metropolises is doing better than EU on average. NY is, on the other hand, worst in the world. Other US states are somewhere in between. Even with NY, US is doing ~as well as EU. Likely better economically (see stimulus). Likely IMO will do better "medically", because of having more beds, ventilators per capita and so on. But it is getting repetitive. I provide stats, you guys

You are a deranged clown, and the fact that you're trolling the forum about a global pandemic shows what low character you have. Get lost.

What in my post is trolling? Stats? 

(D) says Trump, De Santis and Banana Republicans are murderers.
forgotten manatee: sure, fine, yes!
Me: guys, you know, Trump's decision ,ackchyually, was good and NY's response was a disaster, but US still is not worse than EU, showing stats and trying to reason.
forgotten manatee: how dare you deranged clown to troll!

JFC. It's getting late.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

(Old) poors, rural (low number of beds?), African Americans and Illegals will fairly likely  be overrepresented.

https://twitter.com/kat__stafford/status/1245797231401283584

LOL, the reason why more of the MI cases are African American is because cases are concentrated in Detroit. Why are they concentrated in Detroit? Because that is a big city and is where the airport is, so naturally it gets hit first. You just wait, plenty of old Republican Whites will get it. And when you consider that Trump only won Michigan by 10k votes in 2016, he can't afford for very many of them to succumb to the virus.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1245828490907152385?s=20

Future Secretary of the Navy in the Biden administration?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

(Old) poors, rural (low number of beds?), African Americans and Illegals will fairly likely  be overrepresented.

https://twitter.com/kat__stafford/status/1245797231401283584

LOL, the reason why more of the MI cases are African American is because cases are concentrated in Detroit. Why are they concentrated in Detroit? Because that is a big city and is where the airport is, so naturally it gets hit first. You just wait, plenty of old Republican Whites will get it. And when you consider that Trump only won Michigan by 10k votes in 2016, he can't afford for very many of them to succumb to the virus.

"You just wait, plenty of old Republican Whites will get it." Mmm ok. I still insist that old poors likely will be overrepresented other things equal. So rural mor than metro, white less than non-whites. White are skewed old, though.

[parochial boy]

How is it possible that France had 1355 deaths today but only 2116 new cases?

They added statistics from old people’s homes (that wasn't included before). But even without it they test less then US.

The PDF here seems to suggest the French were doing close to 17-18k tests a day in the week up to the 27th of March. Relative to population, that's slightly better than the US was at the time. Obviously both have been building up capacity since, but your overall assertion isn't really true.

[parochial boy]

(Old) poors, rural (low number of beds?), African Americans and Illegals will fairly likely  be overrepresented.

https://twitter.com/kat__stafford/status/1245797231401283584

LOL, the reason why more of the MI cases are African American is because cases are concentrated in Detroit. Why are they concentrated in Detroit? Because that is a big city and is where the airport is, so naturally it gets hit first. You just wait, plenty of old Republican Whites will get it. And when you consider that Trump only won Michigan by 10k votes in 2016, he can't afford for very many of them to succumb to the virus.

It's rather unfortunately also a fact of life that African Americans and other low income people are far more likely to be in the sort of work (distribution or service jobs especially) that don't really give them the luxury of Self Isolation, time off sick or working from home.

Like everything else, this pandemic furcks the poor harder than anyone else.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1245828490907152385?s=20

Vindman 2.0.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1244912106761224192
https://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1244912110506737666

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

How is it possible that France had 1355 deaths today but only 2116 new cases?

They added statistics from old people’s homes (that wasn't included before). But even without it they test less then US.

The PDF here seems to suggest the French were doing close to 17-18k tests a day in the week up to the 27th of March. Relative to population, that's slightly better than the US was at the time. Obviously both have been building up capacity since, but your overall assertion isn't really true.

Yes, but per capita testing is lame measure, when different countries are in different state. Obviously, France has much more per capita cases and therefore should be testing much more per capita.

Per capita per case testing (where deaths and hospitalizations are lagging proxies) is IMO a better one. Then US likely is testing way more.

https://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1244912110506737666

The death rate from confirmed #COVID19 cases is estimated at 1.38%, while the overall death rate incl. unconfirmed cases, is estimated at 0.66%

Old enough to remember how Trump get ridiculed by claiming it's under 1% (based on South Korea per aides) rather than WHO's 3.7% (based on Chinese stats).

[emailking]

Ugh, stop it. Trump's brilliant decision gave US 2 weeks or so. Some States Officials used it well (CA), some did NOT (NY).

Trump is responsible for what happens in New York.

[brucejoel99]

Ugh, stop it. Trump's brilliant decision gave US 2 weeks or so. Some States Officials used it well (CA), some did NOT (NY).

Trump is responsible for what happens in New York.

"I don't take responsibility at all."

[Gass3268]

Don't think this has been posted here yet:

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1245726797645393922?s=20

[brucejoel99]

Don't think this has been posted here yet:

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1245726797645393922?s=20

I love this lady. She's a saint. Thank you, ma'am.

If only we could have a President Pelosi right now instead of the one we actually have.

[Hammy]

Might I ask, regarding the fatality rate, why we're using deaths per cases (which is rising at a rapid rate at the moment) rather than deaths per cases closed, which puts it at what seems like a more realistic 30-40%?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ugh, stop it. Trump's brilliant decision gave US 2 weeks or so. Some States Officials used it well (CA), some did NOT (NY).

Trump is responsible for what happens in New York.

"I don't take responsibility at all."

But when Obama was President "the buck stopped with him."

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1245828490907152385?s=20

That'll teach him to make Mr. Trump look bad! (Although perhaps the United States could do with a little "pour encourager les autres" at the top of its military command structure, I doubt Mr. Trump and his cult would like the results anymore than I would.)

[brucejoel99]

Ugh, stop it. Trump's brilliant decision gave US 2 weeks or so. Some States Officials used it well (CA), some did NOT (NY).

Trump is responsible for what happens in New York.

"I don't take responsibility at all."

But when Obama was President "the buck stopped with him."

Double standards are okay when they benefit Republicans.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Might I ask, regarding the fatality rate, why we're using deaths per cases (which is rising at a rapid rate at the moment) rather than deaths per cases closed, which puts it at what seems like a more realistic 30-40%?

A peer-reviewed medical study published in something like The Lancet is going to employ a model that accounts for considerations like that.

If you want to just look at the closed-case raw number, you should at least look at a country where the majority of cases are actually resolved.  For example, in Korea, about 60% of cases are closed.  The death rate among closed cases is only 3%.  And of the remaining 40% of active cases, only 1% are listed as serious or critical.

[FrancoAgo]

Might I ask, regarding the fatality rate, why we're using deaths per cases (which is rising at a rapid rate at the moment) rather than deaths per cases closed, which puts it at what seems like a more realistic 30-40%?

because both are wrong, so one or the other is not important

and also NickG observation is right

for the Lancet 0,66% of fatality rate is probably too lower, there are various infos that mortality rate in the heavy hit area in Italy is now around 0,5%, not talking of the official tested but of statistical deaths difference with previous years, sorry for my english

 

[ON Progressive]

Might I ask, regarding the fatality rate, why we're using deaths per cases (which is rising at a rapid rate at the moment) rather than deaths per cases closed, which puts it at what seems like a more realistic 30-40%?

There is literally no reason to think this has a 30-40% death rate. If it did, we'd have way more dead (although it also likely simply wouldn't have gotten to spread that well anyway, since dead people can't spread disease easily for obvious reasons).

[Beet]

Highest testing states:
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1245838887135481857

Lowest testing states:
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1245838564404998144

Non shelter-in-place states:
https://twitter.com/cmclymer/status/1245527995361746950

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK, nice one Beet. The 2 mile data presented is interesting.

Case study on stats from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

South Korea

This country had Corona-virus early starting in earnest mid-February. Their current 'Active Case' growth is entering the final phase. South Korea practices case prediction, spot testing, case tracking and strict isolation procedures.

If we divide the pandemic numbers in South Korea into 4 regions based on growth rate in Active Cases, we have 4 key dates:

• 1. February 17 - Start of reported cases at some nominal value, say 20, to start this curve
• 2. March 3 - Highest Growth
• 3. March 11 - Peak of "Active Cases'. Growth reduction to zero
• 4. March 26 - Highest Decline

Data from South Korea when plotted, as expected, forms a positively skewed bell curve. China was identical. Most 1918 US City Active Case graphs for Spanish Flu were the same.

Australia

This country is an island. 25% of cases from Cruise Ships. 25% of cases from the USA. 25% of cases from Europe. Surprisingly few from China due to an early travel ban.

This morning, Australian media reported that 12% of all cases in Australia are from one Cruise Ship, the Ruby Princess, which the NSW Government said did not present a 'risk' if passengers were allowed to disembark. And disembark they did. The numbers of COVID-19 cases have increased 5 fold from the initial cases reported since people walked off the ship unchecked.

Apart from that, Australia has enjoyed very constrained growth in Corona-virus due to isolation procedures from overseas travellers returning to Australia.

Again, with key dates:

• 1. March 1 - Start of reported case graph at 25
• 2. March 24 - Highest Growth
• 3. April 5 - Predicted Peak of "Active Cases' based on predicted Growth reduction to zero (green line)

So unless we get another outbreak with the German Cruise Ship scenario, we should peak at the end of the first week in April.

In terms of Corona-virus testing, Australia and South Korea share the highest testing rates in the world.



This high testing rate allows much more accurate analysis to be performed. For example, I have never presented 'Active Cases' in Iran due to irregularities in the dataset.

In terms of the growth charts for the largest countries in the world, we have:



UK and USA climbing at fastest growth rate thus far according to the data.

Recoveries are not reported daily in Europe, thus the decline in Italy and Germany will be a little lumpy. I can use 5 point averaging to accommodate (which makes Italys decline in growth look great), but Excel moves the peak over 3 days to the right. Someone needs to talk to Bill Gates to get his 5 point averaging centred on point number 3.

Good luck to my friends in the USA and Europe. God bless.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/2 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

3/29:

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | ↑26.73%)

3/31:

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | ↑22.84%)

4/1 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | ↑31.94%)

4/2 (Today):

• Cases: 244,433 (+29,430 | ↑13.69%)
• Deaths: 6,070 (+968 | ↑18.97%)