Does Bullock have incumbency advantage in the race

[brucejoel99]

Yes, & this is backed up by the fact that he has been on the ballot more often & more recently than Daines. He'll win because he's more present on the ground as well as in local media, & because he's just a damn formidable opponent.

[Bubble Bursting]

Bullock is just Phil Bredsen 2.0. Also Montana hates incumbents anyway.

[brucejoel99]

Bullock is just Phil Bredsen 2.0. Also Montana hates incumbents anyway.

There's so much wrong with this that I just hope it's satirical.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bullock is gonna get tested whereas he wasnt tested like before for Gov, this race along with NC are tipping pt races of the Senate along with GA special. It's not safe to write MT, NC or GA special off, but Cunningham due to the Burr situation has a narrow advantage over Bullock as the tie breaking seat. That's why Sabato rates NC as tossup and MT as lean R, due to Cooper's coattails

[Heir of Camelot]

Daines will also be tested. His first race was a total layup. His original opponent dropped out due to scandal a few months before the election and his second opponent had no chance.

Daines has shown zero ability to campaign besides running attack ads with Nancy Pelosi, which has zero to do with Bullock and Montanans know it. Bullock is actually linking Daines as a rubber stamp for McConnell which is clever since Moscow Mitch only has 31% approval here. The shoe is on the other foot.

[The Arizonan]

Bullock is just Phil Bredsen 2.0. Also Montana hates incumbents anyway.

There's so much wrong with this that I just hope it's satirical.

Considering that this is Atlas, it probably isn’t.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'll wager that for now Trump beats Biden in MT 56-41

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know Cooney will lose and Trump will win, but it's called split ticket voting. In 2018, AZ was won by Ducey and Sinema won. The same thing can happen in 2020. But Dems are tied in the House race with Rs

[Heir of Camelot]

I'm not sure Cooney does lose. It will be very close and typically that favors Dems. Fox would be formidable but Gianforte is popular with the base but extremely polarizing and doesn't fit the mold of the type of Republican Governors MT typically elects (like Marc Racicot for example). There is still a strong nativist bent in Montana and Jersey Greg buying the Governor's Mansion is not really a fit for this state's libertarian streak.

[Badger]

The distinction between a voters willingness to elect someone to State office versus federal office is I'm a huge magnitude even in these deeply partisan times. This race is still lean r, because Chuck Schumer was able to recruit the best possible candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Remember when Rs kept insisting AZ was Lean R and McSally only has lead in 1 poll taken. The Rs are nervous about this race since they keep saying its Lean R, like MT Treasurer said it was. The last poll take, was a tossup.

Just like Rs are nervous about Portman if Tim Ryan jumps and think that Ryan will lose by 15. Strickland only lost due to fact he said Scalia's death was good for America, he was leading Portman the entire time.

Rs gotta worry about IA, KS and NC as well as MT

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Yes and it will make the race closer, but not enough to win.
Trump will win it by 15+ points
Daines will win it by 5+ or so

[Heir of Camelot]

Want to bet? It will be Steve Bullock by 2-4 points.

He is already slaughtering Daines in campaigning. Just watch both their videos. Daines is stuck in 2014. He is not running against Pelosi, he's running against a popular sitting Governor.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KS, NC, GA and MT can be anyone's guest, Dems are gonna win AZ, CO and ME

[MT Treasurer]

What offsets this to some extent is the fact that it’s easier even for a low-key incumbent like Daines to reintroduce himself to voters every election cycle in a state like Montana than it is in a state like Florida, where you have to deal with a dramatically different composition of the electorate every four/six years and are far more reliant on media coverage than retail politics. MT also has cheaper media markets than FL.

However, it’s also (and this is the downside for Daines) more difficult to define and cast your opponent in an unfavorable light when he has universal name recognition, has been on the ballot more recently and more often than you, has established a personal connection with a large number of your own voters, and is benefiting from a carefully crafted image and campaign tailored to the peculiarities of your state, local concerns, etc.

I’m confident that if Daines wins, it won’t be by more than 5 points. A Bayh/Bredesen "redux" really isn’t in the cards.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are having trouble in SC due to Harrison being so much alike to Tim Scott, MT and KS, all three can flip D