Does Bullock have incumbency advantage in the race

[OSR stands with Israel]

What this means is incumbents have an advantage which makes a race more favorable than it would be in normal circumstances due to name recognition and people getting to seperate our the incumbent from the party .


I think he does because Daines doesn’t seem to be anywhere near high profile and if Bullock wins it will be due to the fact that he had the incumbency advantage in this Race

[Heir of Camelot]

He absolutely does in that many moderate Republicans have already voted for him in the past. Daines is such a nonexistent campaigner that I think that helps him as well.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Incumbent Governors are the strongest candidates you can get. Bullock is a very strong candidate, but Daines does not have easy flaws to abuse and Montana will likely vote for Trump by at least 12%.

[Gracile]

Only incumbent Senators have incumbency advantage in Senate races, but Bullock's status as a relatively popular Governor with decent crossover appeal certainly helps him.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Incumbent Governors are the strongest candidates you can get. Bullock is a very strong candidate, but Daines does not have easy flaws to abuse and Montana will likely vote for Trump by at least 12%.

12? He won it by 20+ in 2016 and it's trending rightwards

[Continential]

Incumbent Governors are the strongest candidates you can get. Bullock is a very strong candidate, but Daines does not have easy flaws to abuse and Montana will likely vote for Trump by at least 12%.

12? He won it by 20+ in 2016 and it's trending rightwards

The OP lives in Montana.

[Heir of Camelot]

Montana is NOT trending rightwards. Gallatin has gone from R+5 to D+12 in five years due to all the transplants. A similar trend is emerging in Flathead County and Lewis and Clark County and Missoula Co. was already Portland to begin with.

You could make the argument that Eastern Montana is trending rightwards but it's losing population so not nearly fast enough to compensate for the rapid blue drift of Western Montana. MT Treasurer can confirm this.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Montana is NOT trending rightwards. Gallatin has gone from R+5 to D+12 in five years due to all the transplants. A similar trend is emerging in Flathead County and Lewis and Clark County.

You could make the argument that Eastern Montana is trending rightwards but it's losing population so not nearly fast enough to compensate for the rapid blue drift of Western Montana. MT Treasurer can confirm this.

But.......it has compensated for it? It's compensated enough for it to go from Romney +14 to Trump +20, and from McCain +2, etc etc. You're pointing to specific counties, but ignoring both the total math and all the other counties in the state

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Incumbent Governors are the strongest candidates you can get. Bullock is a very strong candidate, but Daines does not have easy flaws to abuse and Montana will likely vote for Trump by at least 12%.

12? He won it by 20+ in 2016 and it's trending rightwards

Is it though? Dems did quite well in MT in 2018 and that was with higher turnout than in 2016.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Incumbent Governors are the strongest candidates you can get. Bullock is a very strong candidate, but Daines does not have easy flaws to abuse and Montana will likely vote for Trump by at least 12%.

12? He won it by 20+ in 2016 and it's trending rightwards

Is it though? Dems did quite well in MT in 2018 and that was with higher turnout than in 2016.

Dems did well in plenty of states in 2018, but that doesn't mean that Michigan is trending leftwards

[Heir of Camelot]

Because Prez. Candidate quality matters. Hillary was a horrible fit for MT and many left leaning independents sat that one out. Bullock won by 4.5 in that same election. Trump the candidate and his populism was also a good fit in '16 but Trump the Incumbent Prez will be lucky to score a 12 point win. If Biden doesn't phone it in and actually runs a decent campaign he could make it single digits.

[lfromnj]

Incumbent Governors are the strongest candidates you can get. Bullock is a very strong candidate, but Daines does not have easy flaws to abuse and Montana will likely vote for Trump by at least 12%.

12? He won it by 20+ in 2016 and it's trending rightwards

The OP lives in Montana.

Didnt we have Keystone phil predict that Santorum would win?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Because Prez. Candidate quality matters. Hillary was a horrible fit for MT and many left leaning independents sat that one out. Bullock won by 4.5 in that same election. Trump the candidate and his populism was also a good fit in '16 but Trump the Incumbent Prez will be lucky to score a 12 point win. If Biden doesn't phone it in and actually runs a decent campaign he could make it single digits.

> single digits

Dude, even Romney, an establishment elitist from Massachusetts, versus Obama, who did far better with WWC voters than any Democrat will again in the forseeable future, won MT by 14 points. You think it's even going to be close to 12 points? pssh

[Heir of Camelot]

Montana has an anti-incumbent swing in Presidential reelections. Obama almost won Montana in '08. He lost by like 3 points.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidential_election

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana

Bush won it by 21 points in 2004 and 25 points in 2000



Here’s a larger sample size and if you see it’s not trended much at all really over the bigger picture.
Same in the rust belt it’s trended R but not as dramatically one you add in 2000 and 2004 to the sample size

[OSR stands with Israel]

Only incumbent Senators have incumbency advantage in Senate races, but Bullock's status as a relatively popular Governor with decent crossover appeal certainly helps him.

That is not true  , Rick Scott has incumbency advantage in Florida cause he was better known than Bill Nelson.


Incumbency advantage helps cause of the fact you are much well known compared to your opponent and people have gotten to know you outside your party label and many times sitting  governors and not senators get that advantage

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidential_election

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana

Bush won it by 21 points in 2004 and 25 points in 2000

And Trump won it by 20

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Montana has an anti-incumbent swing in Presidential reelections. Obama almost won Montana in '08. He lost by like 3 points.

So extrapolating from 2000-2004 then, Trump will win by a mere 16?

[Heir of Camelot]

12-15 points is my guess. Depends on how he handles this crisis. Biden will perform much better than Hillary here.

Trumps approval rating is only 50% here right now and he leads "generic Dem" by only 6 points currently.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidential_election

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana

Bush won it by 21 points in 2004 and 25 points in 2000

And Trump won it by 20

Ok let’s not get in to Montana Presidential election here . Montana has consistently been significantly less Republican at the non presidential election and there is no evidence that that has changed .

This race is Tilt R so Daines has the advantage but the reason it’s Tilt R and not basically Safe R is cause Bullock has the incumbency advantage and very much could win cause of that

[Libertas Vel Mors]

12-15 points is my guess. Depends on how he handles this crisis. Biden will perform much better than Hillary here.

Trumps approval rating is only 50% here right now and he leads "generic Dem" by only 6 points currently.

Jesus, you really believe those polls? I guess that's why Heidi Heitkamp won the 50-50 approval North Dakota in 2018

[OSR stands with Israel]

12-15 points is my guess. Depends on how he handles this crisis. Biden will perform much better than Hillary here.

Trumps approval rating is only 50% here right now and he leads "generic Dem" by only 6 points currently.

Jesus, you really believe those polls? I guess that's why Heidi Heitkamp won the 50-50 approval North Dakota in 2018

North Dakota does not equal Montana and is significantly more Republican. Bullock also doenst have anything like voting against Kavanugh which will significantly hurt him.


MT is not that Republican downballot

[Libertas Vel Mors]

12-15 points is my guess. Depends on how he handles this crisis. Biden will perform much better than Hillary here.

Trumps approval rating is only 50% here right now and he leads "generic Dem" by only 6 points currently.

Jesus, you really believe those polls? I guess that's why Heidi Heitkamp won the 50-50 approval North Dakota in 2018

North Dakota does not equal Montana and is significantly more Republican. Bullock also doenst have anything like voting against Kavanugh which will significantly hurt him.


MT is not that Republican downballot

We aren't talking about that, we're talking about the poll. You really think that if an election was held today Trump would win MT by just 6?

[OSR stands with Israel]

12-15 points is my guess. Depends on how he handles this crisis. Biden will perform much better than Hillary here.

Trumps approval rating is only 50% here right now and he leads "generic Dem" by only 6 points currently.

Jesus, you really believe those polls? I guess that's why Heidi Heitkamp won the 50-50 approval North Dakota in 2018

North Dakota does not equal Montana and is significantly more Republican. Bullock also doenst have anything like voting against Kavanugh which will significantly hurt him.


MT is not that Republican downballot

We aren't talking about that, we're talking about the poll. You really think that if an election was held today Trump would win MT by just 6?

Generic Dem to most people in Motnana might be Bullock lol not Biden. That is the worst question to ask possible, as Generic D or R is always much stronger than the actual nominees