Espy isn't winning in 2020...but in 2027, I could see Democrats picking up a downballot office or two if Trump is really unpopular. They might even win the Governor's race. But they won't pick up the Senate seat, no matter who the nominee is, any time this decade.
For the sake of argument, I'll say.
Tate Reeves (R) 55%
Mike Espy(D) 44%
An African American politician with less baggage than Espy might be able to get up to 48% or 49%, and might be able to keep Reeves from winning with a majority, but they won't win the race outright.
I agree. I don’t have the Democrats winning any Senate seat in Mississippi until 2038 or 2042 and the governorship until 2039 or 2043. The margins of victory for the Republicans probably will start decreasing sometime in the early 2030s however.