MS-SEN 2026: Sen. Mike Espy vs. Gov. Tate Reeves

[Suburbia]

Mississippi Sen. Mike Espy, a black Southern Democrat who defeated reviled Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in one of the biggest upsets in American history, faces a tough reelection battle against Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves, a Republican.

Who wins?

[voice_of_resistance]

MS is slowly becoming blacker, and suburban trends will probably begin to hit Mississippi then. Espy is the kind of guy who can turn out black voters, and Reeves has proven that he is not a great governor. I'd peg this at Lean R.

[brucejoel99]

Democratic midterm: Lean Reeves, closer to Likely.
Republican midterm: Tossup, tilt Espy.

[Joseph Cao]

Espy winning in 2020 would undoubtedly involve him taking the Doug Jones route of better performance among typically Republican moderates (probably with the help of a scandal above and beyond Hyde-Smith's previous comments) in addition to juicing AA turnout to heretofore unseen heights, since Mississippi’s racial polarisation almost certainly rules out Espy winning back white ancestral Democrats. It is quite likely that Biden wins nationally in this scenario and pushes Espy over the finish line by helping him with AA turnout. Does Mississippi suburbanise enough between 2020 and 2026 to make up for the drop in AA and Democratic turnout that will inevitably happen in a midterm year, particularly if it’s a Democratic midterm and/or Biden is no longer President? I doubt it.
Furthermore, as with Doug Jones facing Sessions/Tuberville rather than Roy Moore, Reeves (while still a fairly mediocre candidate) would be far, far less toxic than whatever iteration of Hyde-Smith managed to lose Mississippi in a presidential year with the Dog-Whistler-in-Chief leading the Republican ticket. Absent the scandal, and with a midterm electorate that is presumably only marginally more elastic in 2026 than it is now, I think Espy loses regardless of which party occupies the White House – by 2–3 points in an R midterm instead of double digits in a D midterm, but losing nonetheless.

[Suburbia]

Espy can win in 2026 if he doesn't align himself with the national Democratic Party brand.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Espy, if Mississippians have any decency left in them.

[NewYorkExpress]

Espy isn't winning in 2020...but in 2027, I could see Democrats picking up a downballot office or two if Trump is really unpopular. They might even win the Governor's race. But they won't pick up the Senate seat, no matter who the nominee is, any time this decade.

For the sake of argument, I'll say.

Tate Reeves (R) 55%
Mike Espy(D) 44%

An African American politician with less baggage than Espy might be able to get up to 48% or 49%, and might be able to keep Reeves from winning with a majority, but they won't win the race outright.

[MATTROSE94]

Espy isn't winning in 2020...but in 2027, I could see Democrats picking up a downballot office or two if Trump is really unpopular. They might even win the Governor's race. But they won't pick up the Senate seat, no matter who the nominee is, any time this decade.

For the sake of argument, I'll say.

Tate Reeves (R) 55%
Mike Espy(D) 44%

An African American politician with less baggage than Espy might be able to get up to 48% or 49%, and might be able to keep Reeves from winning with a majority, but they won't win the race outright.

I agree. I don’t have the Democrats winning any Senate seat in Mississippi until 2038 or 2042 and the governorship until 2039 or 2043. The margins of victory for the Republicans probably will start decreasing sometime in the early 2030s however. 

[Chips]

Reeves by maybe 5 points or so.

[President Biden Democrat]

This would never happen has Espy will not in 2020. But if this for some reason did happen, it would largely depend on the state of the country and who the President is 2026. If it is a Democratic President, like either Biden's VP or a Dem succeeding Trump, Reeves (R) would win by by a convincing margin. If this is in a Democratic Wave, Espy maybe could win but Reeves would still be favored to win.