MS-SEN 2026: Sen. Mike Espy vs. Gov. Tate Reeves

[Joseph Cao]

Espy winning in 2020 would undoubtedly involve him taking the Doug Jones route of better performance among typically Republican moderates (probably with the help of a scandal above and beyond Hyde-Smith's previous comments) in addition to juicing AA turnout to heretofore unseen heights, since Mississippi’s racial polarisation almost certainly rules out Espy winning back white ancestral Democrats. It is quite likely that Biden wins nationally in this scenario and pushes Espy over the finish line by helping him with AA turnout. Does Mississippi suburbanise enough between 2020 and 2026 to make up for the drop in AA and Democratic turnout that will inevitably happen in a midterm year, particularly if it’s a Democratic midterm and/or Biden is no longer President? I doubt it.
Furthermore, as with Doug Jones facing Sessions/Tuberville rather than Roy Moore, Reeves (while still a fairly mediocre candidate) would be far, far less toxic than whatever iteration of Hyde-Smith managed to lose Mississippi in a presidential year with the Dog-Whistler-in-Chief leading the Republican ticket. Absent the scandal, and with a midterm electorate that is presumably only marginally more elastic in 2026 than it is now, I think Espy loses regardless of which party occupies the White House – by 2–3 points in an R midterm instead of double digits in a D midterm, but losing nonetheless.