The Mikado
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« on: March 30, 2020, 12:44:57 AM » |
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This definitely helps Cruz. He might win contests like Kentucky and Louisiana, and almost certainly win Missouri this way (and doing better in MO's winner take most setup would sway a decent number of delegates his way). However, Trump still easily wins FL's winner take all.
There wasn't enough Rubio support to swing any other state in contention in the two weeks he kept running, other than MAYBE North Carolina, which was proportional anyway so Cruz didn't stand much to gain.
I think at the end of the day, it doesn't really tip the balance that much. Cruz winning KY, LA, and MO (definitely all possible in this world) makes his map look better on paper, but swings maybe 30 delegates total out of the Trump camp. It doesn't even begin to deflate Trump's momentum when he's winning big states like FL and IL. I think we end up at the same place in the end.
Oh, and Kasich wins DC instead of Rubio. That should be obvious. So Kasich would be on the map in two places.
Overall, the slightly narrower delegate count might've led Cruz and Kasich to continue contesting the race at least somewhat later. Even IRL Cruz probably could've won Nebraska if he had still been contesting the nomination at that point. Trump could be held down to the point where he was reliant on uncommitted delegates to put him over the top at the convention. (Not the same thing as a brokered convention necessarily, but the GOP had a number of uncommitted delegates, mostly from Pennsylvania, that Trump would have to have won over)
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