Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Surprised no one has started this yet.

Green Line can rest assured that Marie Newman is likely a goner in 2022. IL-3 should be very easy to convert into a hispanic-majority seat. It's a wonder why two hispanic seats weren't drawn in 2011 when it could have easily been done then.

Even with drawing three black seats and two hispanic seats in a 17-seat map, it's very easy to shore up Lauren Underwood and Sean Casten as well. My new IL-14 I drew in Dave's Redistricting App takes Rockford out of IL-17 (I'll get to that later) and includes Rockford, all of Boone County, all of DeKalb County, the northern half of Kane County, and the more Democratic southern half of McHenry County (including Algonquin and Woodstock). Obama got 55.5% in 2008. Just eye-balling it, Clinton won it by at least 5%. IL-10 takes up the rest of the more Republican part of McHenry County and most of Lake County. IL-6 becomes entirely based within DuPage County and Clinton won it by about 12%. Bill Foster's IL-11 becomes less blue and includes Naperville (in DuPage County), the southern half of Kane County, and all of Kendall, Grundy, and LaSalle Counties. Clinton won this by about 10%.

Cheri Bustos's IL-17 turns into a Mississippi River-based seat and includes all of Carroll County through Jersey counties inclusive, and the most Democratic parts of St. Clair County and Madison County. In addition, to get population balance, it reaches into Freeport and Galesburg, both Democratic cities. Obama won this 58.5-40%, but it was obviously a lot closer in 2016, and Trump might have won it even still. This would be the toughest Democratic seat to retain given the trends here, and Cheri Bustos would have a big fight on her hands in the first tough year for Democrats.

The new IL-12 is a new Clinton seat in central Illinois that includes the cities of Springfield, Urbana-Champaign, Decatur, Bloomington-Normal, and Peoria. Obama won it by 13% in 2008, and with the trends slightly counteracting each other in this seat, Clinton still won it by about 6% it looks like.

Essentially though, it's impossible to have two safe Democratic seats in Downstate Illinois unless you get really crazy with tentacles. The best you can do is a Likely D seat in the central part of the state and a tossup Mississippi River seat.

If anyone could show me how to upload a map to this site, I'd be happy to show it.

Essentially this turns into a map with 10 Safe Democratic seats (1-11), 2 Likely D seats (12 and 14), and one tossup seat (IL-17).

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Four problems with Chicago hispanics:

1) There were not enough of them for two districts in 2010 when the state had 18 seats. The only way to get it to work was to head out into the suburb and tentacle to Aurora and stuff.

2) Undervoting in the primary. 50% or even 55% is not enough for a performing seat. One needs to go higher. Undervoting actually helps the AAs, since the three AA seats are destined to drop to 48-46% AA by VAP, so sticking undervoting Hispanics along with the current GOP whites helps keep AAs >50% in the dem primary.

3) Chuy García is from the south part of IL04, whereas the seat was previously repp'ed by the northern side of the earmuff. Chuy is going to demand more of the Hispanics in the south side and drop off more of the north, which helps other Reps when it comes to partisan moves in the suburbs.

4) Madigan's personal base is in the 3rd, and includes some Hispanics. He will decide who represents him personally, and that may not be a minority Rep.

It is definitely possible. The map I drew literally has two seats over 50% Hispanic

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Four problems with Chicago hispanics:

1) There were not enough of them for two districts in 2010 when the state had 18 seats. The only way to get it to work was to head out into the suburb and tentacle to Aurora and stuff.

2) Undervoting in the primary. 50% or even 55% is not enough for a performing seat. One needs to go higher. Undervoting actually helps the AAs, since the three AA seats are destined to drop to 48-46% AA by VAP, so sticking undervoting Hispanics along with the current GOP whites helps keep AAs >50% in the dem primary.

3) Chuy García is from the south part of IL04, whereas the seat was previously repp'ed by the northern side of the earmuff. Chuy is going to demand more of the Hispanics in the south side and drop off more of the north, which helps other Reps when it comes to partisan moves in the suburbs.

4) Madigan's personal base is in the 3rd, and includes some Hispanics. He will decide who represents him personally, and that may not be a minority Rep.

It is definitely possible. The map I drew literally has two seats over 50% Hispanic

But I can't see it.  I'll show you how to draw it so the southern one can be won by an Evergreen Park democrat.

How do I upload a picture on this damn site

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Thanks i’ll share it when I get home from work. As for Underwood not being in IL-14, I guess you could draw another tentacle into Naperville easily in my map, but it’s not really necessary. I don’t think she’d Be treated as a carpetbagger if she decided to run in the seat I have her in anyway.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0ed2e9ca-8400-4799-9a61-ed14bdfd5fd3

Obviously I need to clean up my 1 & 2, but this is the overall concept of 14/17 Democrat seats.

As you can see, very easy to get two hispanic seats in Cook County in a 17-seat map. It'll probably be even easier when the new Census numbers come out since I imagine hispanic numbers have gone up.

Districts 1 and 2 will be slightly under 50% black, but still easily enough for a black Democrat to win a primary if there isn't a clown car vs  single white candidate.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0ed2e9ca-8400-4799-9a61-ed14bdfd5fd3

Obviously I need to clean up my 1 & 2, but this is the overall concept of 14/17 Democrat seats

Nobody would dare propose your version of Bustos's seat...it not only voted for Trump by 3% AND has a lower CPVI that the present seat meaning Romney also was competitive here. She's getting some of the central cities.

You destroy one of the AA seats. This needs to be amended.

Way too many dems are left on the table in the city. Your 5 & 9 need to be unpacked, and every suburban seat needs more dems.

This is before we start talking about how everyone seems to be drawn out of their seat in the city, or has lost their main base of support.

I said my Cook County seats need cleaned up, but the suburban Democrats are more than fine in my map. Bill Foster and Sean Casten would not lose barring a landslide of epic proportions, and even then, they probably win. I guess if you put Rockford in the 17th, then the 14th will have to pick up a new source for a Democratic base somewhere, like in Lake County maybe, but on the whole, I think this is a very defensible map.

Bustos's seat is going once the first wave hits unless you draw something egregious like lfromnj drew. Madigan has the balls to do something like that I guess, but the Democrats who want to unilaterally disarm their map-drawing power will probably make a fuss.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@Green Line: Chuy would have nothing to worry about in this map. Hispanics outnumber whites by 57-26 and that's using ten year old numbers.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@Green Line: Chuy would have nothing to worry about in this map. Hispanics outnumber whites by 57-26 and that's using ten year old numbers.

Why do the numbers say 48 hispanic, 41 white?  What am I misreading.

That's the new district 3. District 4 (Garcia's) is 57-26

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@Green Line: Chuy would have nothing to worry about in this map. Hispanics outnumber whites by 57-26 and that's using ten year old numbers.

Why do the numbers say 48 hispanic, 41 white?  What am I misreading.

That's the new district 3. District 4 (Garcia's) is 57-26

I don't know exactly where Chuy lives, but you drew his south side Mexican base into the new 3rd.

Even if Chuy did run in the 4th, the point about the 3rd stands.  It would be highly unlikely to be won by a hispanic democrat.

Oh well. Minority opportunity districts are just that: opportunities. If they can't take advantage of that, then that's not the map-makers problem.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@Oryxslayer: how were you able to get the Trump/Clinton numbers on my IL-17 so fast? I'm curious what they would be on IL-14 and IL-12 (I know she definitely won them, but not sure by how much).

Also, the point of this thread was to show that a map that leaves Republicans with just 3 seats and a swing seat is definitely doable in a 17-seat map.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Just realized my IL-12 looks like a puppy laying down and looking up lol

The more I tinker with it, the more I conclude it's impossible to draw Bustos a safe seat without going into Chicagoland and still have another Downstate seat that is lean/likely Dem.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@Oryxslayer: how were you able to get the Trump/Clinton numbers on my IL-17 so fast? I'm curious what they would be on IL-14 and IL-12 (I know she definitely won them, but not sure by how much).

Also, the point of this thread was to show that a map that leaves Republicans with just 3 seats and a swing seat is definitely doable in a 17-seat map.

Open up a copy of DRA 2010. Copy your districts to that map. Ignore all pop deviation where transposing your districts.

For example, your Underwood seats is R+0 and 48/45 Clinton, your Schneider seat is D+3.5 53/40 Clinton, and your Foster seat is D+2.2 and Clinton 51/41. WAYYYY too weak when all but the underwood seat should be eternally safe democratic.

Republicans have shown no capacity to win any Clinton+double digit seats. But if you are that bothered by it, justbacon strip Schakowsky’s and Quigley’s seats. It’d be unnecessarily ugly.

The pint of this exercise was to show how relatively easy it is to shore up Underwood and create a New Democratic seat in central Illinois

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This map makes IL-17 a 48-47 Clinton district and keeps her base within the current seats three main cities intact.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0ed2e9ca-8400-4799-9a61-ed14bdfd5fd3

I still disagree that Schneider and Foster are vulnerable in double digit Clinton seats (see username), but I digress, lol

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I hope if Madigan draws something that nasty anyway that he can at least shore up IL-13 more than that. The trends in that seat are horrible

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yep.  This is basically what they need to do.  

Kinda hope they don't actually.   I want to see those long tentacle districts become extinct.    You don't see them in newer maps anymore.    I hope public pressure will be enough to discourage them from drawing that stuff.

Yeah they are kinda going extinct in most places. The trend is now favoring the concession of a pack, whereas in the past you would somehow find a way to crack said hypothetical group. However, Madigan  has no shame and is quite literally a teacher in the old school. It's very likely IL ends up with the worst visual lines in the nation, with only potential rivals being MD if a 3rd AA seat is desired, MO if KC is carved up, SC if they really want to reshuffle the coast, and TX if the GOP learns the wrong lessons from 2018/20.

From reading any Republican website, they seem to think they’ll be fine with a vote sink in Austin and shoring up GOJ when she wins this year. I don’t think that’s sustainable at all, and probably won’t even be for the 2022 map, but who knows. Travis County needs two seats, and when you add to that the suburbs are getting bluer and bluer, a one district vote sink in Austin is a very ballsy gamble.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yep.  This is basically what they need to do.  

Kinda hope they don't actually.   I want to see those long tentacle districts become extinct.    You don't see them in newer maps anymore.    I hope public pressure will be enough to discourage them from drawing that stuff.

Yeah they are kinda going extinct in most places. The trend is now favoring the concession of a pack, whereas in the past you would somehow find a way to crack said hypothetical group. However, Madigan  has no shame and is quite literally a teacher in the old school. It's very likely IL ends up with the worst visual lines in the nation, with only potential rivals being MD if a 3rd AA seat is desired, MO if KC is carved up, SC if they really want to reshuffle the coast, and TX if the GOP learns the wrong lessons from 2018/20.

From reading any Republican website, they seem to think they’ll be fine with a vote sink in Austin and shoring up GOJ when she wins this year. I don’t think that’s sustainable at all, and probably won’t even be for the 2022 map, but who knows. Travis County needs two seats, and when you add to that the suburbs are getting bluer and bluer, a one district vote sink in Austin is a very ballsy gamble.

Travis itself cant even have 2 districts lol even after 2020.

LOL roflmao lololol (am I doing this right?) it will be right on the border.

I am not trying to be a dick, but I just don’t see how it’s possible for Republicans to draw a map for the 2020’s that will hold up long-term with one Austin sink. Williamson County is also growing rapidly and going the way of Gwinnett County quick, to say nothing of Hays