Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Torie]

Here is a reasonable map of Illinois which of course will never be drawn. Presumably something grotesque will become law to screw the Pubs out of two or three seats, that are competitive in this map.

I have this fantasy of states forming a compact, so if Illinois does its thing and takes away 2 Pub seats in erose slice and dice, then Ohio and NC retaliate in kind and down the road we go to hell, in a game that maybe in the end will not net either party overall much of anything at all, attended by some more than usual dummymander risk given how unstable  the party coalitions are at the moment. All sound and fury, with bodies strewn on the landscape, signifying no gain, only pain. The Fruited Plain is a very flawed place. Who knew?

[Torie]

Carrying forward the all sound and fury theme   :

[Torie]

Putnam is not a county with more than two or three precincts of population. You wish in other words could be easily accommodated. If you respect your elders, perhaps I may twist the clock to move Putnam from one safe pub CD to another on this map. It will require, pari passu, a larger chop of another county by about 6K in population, but I think the planet can survive that.

[Torie]

Putnam is not a county with more than two or three precincts of population. You wish in other words could be easily accommodated. If you respect your elders, perhaps I may twist the clock to move Putnam from one safe pub CD to another on this map. It will require, pari passu, a larger chop of another county by about 6K in population, but I think the planet can survive that.

I wasn't just suggesting Putnam; LaSalle ought to go with Bureau too.

[Torie]

When I was in college, CD's 1, 15, and 8, as drawn at the moment as a "work in progress," were about close to 100% white working class and totally racist when it came to blacks. Now as to 1 and 15, they have been almost entirely supplanted with Hispanics, who were accepted, in a way blacks were not. And way back then, Chicago had but one Mexican restaurant. I suspect there are a few more now.

[Torie]

Drawing two Hispanic CD's is very, very laborious. You have to do it one precinct at a time, and then move stuff around, to get close to the same HCVAP percentage for each of them. And the  amazing thing is that the VRA in this instance might well require the undergoing of this excruciating exercise of drawing very erose lines. Chicagoland and NYC are both very challenging in this regard.

[Torie]

I'm trying my hand at a fair map presently and have a couple of questions:

1. Should I try to prioritize city lines or township lines, or both? Which should take precedence?

2. Considering the loss of a district and the decline in population in Chicago, you sort of have to lose one of the Black majority districts, and because of geography it seems like the 7th is the obvious choice. The trouble is is that the 1st thus ends up overpacked with the Black community and needs to be unpacked to give Black voters to make the 7th a coalition district. Is it better to send the 1st to SW Cook or to the North Side?

City lines in Illinois often seem to be an erose mess (granted some might be villages, assuming Illinois has those iterations of municipal corporations), and the precinct lines often do not dovetail.  What I do is respect "real" city lines like Chicago and Evanston, but in general focus on townships, with their nice beautiful straight lines as to which the precinct lines do dovetail.

[Torie]

As to a lacking congressional map, a lawsuit was filed after the 1990 census, on June 27, 1991. So it was as if the deadline for legislative seat drawing was used as a marker as a deadline for a Congressional map. However, due to the late census data, the courts this time might give the legislature more time to get the job done. In addition, then there was a partisan division of control, which is not the case now, so it is not as if as was the case then, there was an expectation that a map would never be passed by the legislature and signed off by the governor in time to hold a an election under the new lines. So I think one can expect as to the Congressional map, the Illinois Dems will be able to do their slice and dice evisceration of the Pubs to the extent feasible without mercy.

https://www.ilga.gov/commission/lru/28.RedistrictingSince1970.pdf

https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/FSupp/777/634/2259862/

[Torie]

"Nothing says they have to use 2020 data."

Except the US Constitution as interpreted.

[Torie]

"Nothing says they have to use 2020 data."

Except the US Constitution as interpreted.

Then what data can they use if they don't have the 2020 data ready? They have to meet the deadline. Their game plan should be to use 2010 data to get around this pesky state constitutional deadline. They know they'll get sued, but they can at least drag it out past the release of the 2020 data, when then they can agree to update the maps with the new data.

Well that is a plan, unless the courts take over drawing the lines, and freeze them out.

[Torie]

"Nothing says they have to use 2020 data."

Except the US Constitution as interpreted.

Then what data can they use if they don't have the 2020 data ready? They have to meet the deadline. Their game plan should be to use 2010 data to get around this pesky state constitutional deadline. They know they'll get sued, but they can at least drag it out past the release of the 2020 data, when then they can agree to update the maps with the new data.

Well that is a plan, unless the courts take over drawing the lines, and freeze them out.

Illinois state courts wouldn't do that and the Federal courts are now very deferential to the states when it comes to drawing maps.

OK, we shall see how it pans out. Nice chatting with you.

[Torie]

Just in case you think my Pubmanders are bad, here is Wasserman's contribution to the public square. Yes, you guessed it, it is not a Pubmander. Not sure where Muon2 is dumped.

[Torie]

Do you think you can get yourself quoted in an article about redistricting like you did 10 years ago with Pennsylvania and the octopus?

If BRTD runs the traps for me, sure. The theme this time would be how to mask gerrymanders, with talking points about how it is really a map that hews to good government metrics. Heck, I could even chat about how it is "necessary" to quin-chop Gwinnett to avoid chops elsewhere. Really. Lawyers are dangerous! 

[Torie]

It's very good I think.

[Torie]

I suspect SCOTUS would insist on real data if it is feasible to delay the primary dates, in order to enforce the population equality strictures set forth in its previous decisions.

[Torie]

Here is my updated Illinois map drawn pursuant to neutral redistricting principles, which of course will never be drawn by the Dems.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/11b121cd-85fe-43cf-a562-928fa22c1562

And here is my quick attempt at a Dem downstate gerrymander. I am not sure it is really worth it for the Dems to go there without that much movement in the partisan numbers, but we shall see.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b52fadc-f977-46cc-babf-81008f957e7e

[Torie]

Here is my updated Illinois map drawn pursuant to neutral redistricting principles, which of course will never be drawn by the Dems.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/11b121cd-85fe-43cf-a562-928fa22c1562

And here is my quick attempt at a Dem downstate gerrymander. I am not sure it is really worth it for the Dems to go there without that much movement in the partisan numbers, but we shall see.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b52fadc-f977-46cc-babf-81008f957e7e

72% BVAP....?

It's not gerrymandered so that is OK (county, township, city, and village lines were respected), and there is not a third 50%+ BCVAP CD to be had. However, for the Hispanic CD to be performing, the black percentage needed to be held down, so in the city of Chicago between the two CD's, the two ethnic groups needed to be separated. Having said that, the lines of Ward 2 in Chicago are wild, so that ward was tri-chopped.

[Torie]

Here is my updated Illinois map drawn pursuant to neutral redistricting principles, which of course will never be drawn by the Dems.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/11b121cd-85fe-43cf-a562-928fa22c1562

And here is my quick attempt at a Dem downstate gerrymander. I am not sure it is really worth it for the Dems to go there without that much movement in the partisan numbers, but we shall see.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b52fadc-f977-46cc-babf-81008f957e7e

Thoughts on this more race-neutral map?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/00123e57-f799-4541-a47a-704a2d6ea26b

That is a very well done map. I don't at least as an initial matter have any criticisms at all. But then I have a bias towards rectangular shapes. Were you cognizant of townships in Chicagoland? They matter in that part of the world. I remember people when I was at the U of Chicago saying they were from Maine Township. I would say what?

[Torie]

Here is my updated Illinois map drawn pursuant to neutral redistricting principles, which of course will never be drawn by the Dems.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/11b121cd-85fe-43cf-a562-928fa22c1562

And here is my quick attempt at a Dem downstate gerrymander. I am not sure it is really worth it for the Dems to go there without that much movement in the partisan numbers, but we shall see.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b52fadc-f977-46cc-babf-81008f957e7e

Thoughts on this more race-neutral map?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/00123e57-f799-4541-a47a-704a2d6ea26b

That is a very well done map. I don't at least as an initial matter have any criticisms at all. But then I have a bias towards rectangular shapes. Were you cognizant of townships in Chicagoland? They matter in that part of the world. I remember people when I was at the U of Chicago saying they were from Maine Township. I would say what?

Townships are in fact my preferred building block, especially given the sheer erratic quality of cities and towns in many cases.
I took care to avoid any unnecessary township splits. Math forced the splitting of Winfield (DuPage) and Downers Grove (DuPage) townships, but I at least tried to make the splits have straight lines.
For me, townships have a consistency to them that is a very attractive to work with.

Indeed, although when it comes to municipal lines, as you well know, nothing is quite as insane as what does on in Franklin County, Ohio. I suggest that Franklin County follow the example of what Mayor Lugar did with uni-gov when Indianapolis was merged with Marion County (yeah, I am actually old enough to remember that happening. Some Dems said it was a Pub plot to make Indianapolis "forever Republican." Ha! Forever is a long time. 

[Torie]

That Bustos seat mess is worth it for one f'ing point? Tim!

[Torie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1397276455508135936
Considering judicial races are closer to 2018 gov still, this doesn't really lock down the court for Ds. Definitely a major help but not an instant win.  The only way to really lock it down is to do my map above.

It depends on how well Biden #'s predict the future.  If the Biden coalition transfers downballot, this will easily be a 5D/2R court after the next open elections in districts 2 and 3, and both the outer Chicago districts will only get safer with time.  However, Pritzker just barely won both of those seats in 2018 and they were shakier for Clinton in 2016. 

BTW this isn't particularly egregious from a gerrymandering perspective.  The previous districts were drawn in the 1960's and are now grossly malapportioned (SCOTUS never extended Reynolds and Wesberry to judicial districts) and the median seat on this new map still voted well right of the state. The latter is basically inevitable for now as the state constitution prohibits county splits, hence the 3 seat Cook district.   

Using the better ACS population figures (ala the DRA) than the 2020 census estimates for population, it's time to file a lawsuit.

The districts have more than a 10% deviation when they need not. One person, one vote should apply for judicial districts when the races are partisan, and the judges go partisan when they rule on partisan cases such as gerrymandering cases time after time. In Illinois, the deviation can be reduced to below 10%, by adding another county to the Cook County 3 judges district.

[Torie]

And Cook County aside, what is the rational for not moving some counties from the most over populated district, district 4, to the most underpopulated outside Cook, and in fact in the entire state by far, district 2, other than that they are all Pub?

[Torie]

And Cook County aside, what is the rational for not moving some counties from the most over populated district, district 4, to the most underpopulated outside Cook, and in fact in the entire state by far, district 2, other than that they are all Pub?

Putting Winnebago and the other county would make 2 more overpopulated than the rest so that doesn't matter. If you put the rurals in the NW of the state then you block off Winnebago.  Also splitting Cook is literally not allowed .

You can add other counties than Winnebago in 2 to mitigate matters. Heck you can start by moving little old Boone County. You can also rearrange the ex Cook array of counties overall to reduce population deviation. Cook is not split, it just adds another county to that district. The split in Cook is to illustrate the arithmetic. It is not real. All that aside, can a state have rules that force a more than 10% deviation in district size per judge as it were? SCOTUS needs to tell us for judicial districts for partisan judges in particular.

[Torie]

And Cook County aside, what is the rational for not moving some counties from the most over populated district, district 4, to the most underpopulated outside Cook, and in fact in the entire state by far, district 2, other than that they are all Pub?

Putting Winnebago and the other county would make 2 more overpopulated than the rest so that doesn't matter. If you put the rurals in the NW of the state then you block off Winnebago.  Also splitting Cook is literally not allowed .

You can add other counties than Winnebago in 2 to mitigate matters. Heck you can start by moving little old Boone County. You can also rearrange the ex Cook array of counties overall to reduce population deviation. Cook is not split, it just adds another county to that district. The split in Cook is to illustrate the arithmetic. It is not real. All that aside, can a state have rules that force a more than 10% deviation in district size per judge as it were? SCOTUS needs to tell us for judicial districts for partisan judges in particular.

As far as I know, there is no population standard for judicial districts, even when states have partisan judicial elections.  Texas has partisan judicial elections.  It has a sparsely populated Panhandle appeals court district and another district at the same level with the entire Houston metro area in it.  

Not yet, but I have not yet found a SCOTUS case on the topic. The next issue is whether they moved circuit court districts around in a way that minimized the population deviation.

[Torie]

That map is absolutely, positively disgusting and unavoidable until we come to some kind of federal agreement on redistricting. Republicans have to experience a cost to come to the bargaining table. Alternatively, perhaps seeing the damage to their own voters and party will encourage some of the Supreme Court’s Republican caucus to reconsider their views.

TX amended its Pubmander the other day to Pub up two of the RGV seats. And no, the extreme gerrymanders are not going to facilitate a national law. All politics is local. Exhibit A is the MD Dems have been drawing hideous maps since the 2000 cycle. Hideous maps have been drawn since rocks cooled actually. It is just that technology and geography based political divides have made them more lethal. Interestingly upstate NY is one of the hardest to effectively gerrymander since the geographical polarization up there is more muted.

One idea that popped into my mind is that some Dem state passes a commission law or some law with teeth that modulates gerrymanders and will cost them seats, but it takes effect only if a state on the other side of the aisle does the same. And it would need to be Constitutionally based so only a huge supermajority could rescind it.