Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Virginiá]

How many people in this thread will say Illinois will become a GOP state in the 2020s to "compensate" for the GOP losing Texas?

I will predict that three users will.

I've never really understood the argument that parties will just change up their messaging and make a few policy concessions here and there, and the system will balance itself in short order. American politics has never been balanced. Republicans controlled the presidency for all but 16 years between 1860 - 1932. Democrats controlled the presidency for 20 straight years after, and controlled the US House for all but 4 years between 1932 - 1994. Most people who lived a long life post-Civil War died without ever seeing a country in which Republicans didn't dominate the White House and the Senate.

There is no rule in politics saying that a political party must quickly bounce back. Granted, since American's two major political parties are effectively institutions, they are bound to come back eventually, but it could take literally a lifetime for that to happen. Not to mention that at the state level, there are some states that have never been receptive to the opposing political party in practically their entire existence.

[Virginiá]

16 years or 19.5 years if you include Andrew Johnson.

Yeah, fair point. Added it wrong. Still, my point is still the same. Republicans had a good run of things for quite some time.

[Virginiá]

Thank you, king! No independent maps in Illinois until we have them nationwide.

I don't like it, It undercuts democrat's credibility on being for fair maps if they gerrymander their own maps just on principle all maps should be fair and drawn up by an independent commission or AI.

It does, you'll see many Democrats arguing that unilaterally disarming is only going to hurt the long-term goal of ending gerrymandering nationwide. That is because Republicans will continue to take every last seat they can for themselves in states they control, while Democrats effectively give up seats to the GOP they would have otherwise received, thus making it harder for Democrats to win and keep House majorities in the first place - a necessary level of power to pass HR1.

Given current circumstances, the best option for Democrats is really an all-or-nothing approach. But, obviously left-leaning activists and other good government groups don't see it that way and will continue to push reform ballot initiatives where they can, which in the future will probably be Dem states, as Republicans in relevant states are busy piling restrictions on the initiative process to prevent activists and the general electorate from passing any policies that ruling Republican officials don't like.

[Virginiá]

Not that I think it's doom-worthy, but there is a point to be made that mid-single digit Biden seats aren't guaranteed holds. They could lose in a wave and if their partisan lean sticks throughout the decade, the right Republican could cling to that seat for a few cycles absent a Dem wave knocking them out, like Mike Coffman in CO-6 (although he was an incumbent from the start).