Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Minnesota Mike]

RIP earmuffs district. What odd shaped district will now be used as an example of gerrymandering when it really is not an example of gerrymandering?

[lfromnj]

By the way all of Macoupin being added to IL 13th?

Did Andy Manar ask Pritkzer to push for that? There's no other reason to add such a county that is quite red by now.

[Oryxslayer]

By the way all of Macoupin being added to IL 13th?

Did Andy Manar ask Pritkzer to push for that? There's no other reason to add such a county.

Maybe a desire to ensure every district outside the suburbs has at least 1 whole county. Macoupin used to have a decent D tint, and there are no other obvious candidates for a whole county while maintaining CD15's continuity. OTOH, if they went narrow, it would just be getting a different set of Trump precincts, just ones he won by less. I can only spot a handful of precincts outside CD13 Biden won that could reasonably be added, mainly in St. Clair.

[Donerail]

By the way all of Macoupin being added to IL 13th?

Did Andy Manar ask Pritkzer to push for that? There's no other reason to add such a county.

Maybe a desire to ensure every district outside the suburbs has at least 1 whole county. Macoupin used to have a decent D tint, and there are no other obvious candidates for a whole county while maintaining CD15's continuity. OTOH, if they went narrow, it would just be getting a different set of Trump precincts, just ones he won by less. I can only spot a handful of precincts outside CD13 Biden won that could reasonably be added, mainly in St. Clair.

That sounds like an unnecessarily contrived rule to explain a powerful Senator's home base being added to a district. The simpler explanation is more likely to be correct.

[politicallefty]

They really, really hate Newman it seems.

Indeed, it looks like the Madigan machine still has punch even if he is not running it anymore.

I do not think this is the case and certainly would not expect Casten to be favored in that seat.

That's what I noticed as well. They completely obliterated the current IL-06. In the abstract, that would make sense, since that district was originally drawn to be the Republican vote sink for Chicagoland. Obviously, trends have moved us past the need for such a district. But that's in the abstract, as opposed to reality with an actual Democratic incumbent. If I didn't know any better, I would think they're not too fond of Casten. On the other hand, it does like the most Democratic precincts from the current IL-06 are in the proposed new IL-06.

It does look like Schakowsky and Quigley are slightly more unpacked compared with the previous proposal, but only slightly. I'm sort of surprised how much territory is being moved around between IL-11 and IL-14. Foster is definitely taking one for the team to shore up Underwood. This map has IL-11 at Biden+15, compared to the current Biden+25. Underwood benefits from all of that, with her district going from Biden+2 to Biden+12. I'm surprised they're making Foster take such a hit, although the only other place that district can go into looks like IL-10 (and I think that district gives Democrats too much heartburn to consider changing).

[lfromnj]

By the way all of Macoupin being added to IL 13th?

Did Andy Manar ask Pritkzer to push for that? There's no other reason to add such a county.

Maybe a desire to ensure every district outside the suburbs has at least 1 whole county. Macoupin used to have a decent D tint, and there are no other obvious candidates for a whole county while maintaining CD15's continuity. OTOH, if they went narrow, it would just be getting a different set of Trump precincts, just ones he won by less. I can only spot a handful of precincts outside CD13 Biden won that could reasonably be added, mainly in St. Clair.

That sounds like an unnecessarily contrived rule to explain a powerful Senator's home base being added to a district. The simpler explanation is more likely to be correct.

He isn't a senator anymore by the way but I assume he has some influence and there isn't any incumbent demands here either.

[Oryxslayer]

By the way all of Macoupin being added to IL 13th?

Did Andy Manar ask Pritkzer to push for that? There's no other reason to add such a county.

Maybe a desire to ensure every district outside the suburbs has at least 1 whole county. Macoupin used to have a decent D tint, and there are no other obvious candidates for a whole county while maintaining CD15's continuity. OTOH, if they went narrow, it would just be getting a different set of Trump precincts, just ones he won by less. I can only spot a handful of precincts outside CD13 Biden won that could reasonably be added, mainly in St. Clair.

That sounds like an unnecessarily contrived rule to explain a powerful Senator's home base being added to a district. The simpler explanation is more likely to be correct.

Except said Senator is no longer a Senator (with these maps drawn by the Leg), and his appointed successor got a reinforced senate seat in Springfield. He'd also be starting at a primary disadvantage simply based of Registered voter numbers compared to a Champaign-Urbana or East St. Louis candidate.


Another point: it's clear the first map drawers had no affinity for Lipinski, just found Newman truly uncooperative.

[Donerail]

By the way all of Macoupin being added to IL 13th?

Did Andy Manar ask Pritkzer to push for that? There's no other reason to add such a county.

Maybe a desire to ensure every district outside the suburbs has at least 1 whole county. Macoupin used to have a decent D tint, and there are no other obvious candidates for a whole county while maintaining CD15's continuity. OTOH, if they went narrow, it would just be getting a different set of Trump precincts, just ones he won by less. I can only spot a handful of precincts outside CD13 Biden won that could reasonably be added, mainly in St. Clair.

That sounds like an unnecessarily contrived rule to explain a powerful Senator's home base being added to a district. The simpler explanation is more likely to be correct.

Except said Senator is no longer a Senator (with these maps drawn by the Leg), and his appointed successor got a reinforced senate seat in Springfield. He'd also be starting at a primary disadvantage simply based of Registered voter numbers compared to a Champaign-Urbana or East St. Louis candidate.

Yeah? What's he doing now? Why don't you google that and get back to me, and then we can talk about why the folks in Springfield — who are not dumb people — might have drawn the map the way they did. If you're looking for a hint, it has nothing to do with a nonexistent rule about counties.

[compucomp]

They really, really hate Newman it seems.

Indeed, it looks like the Madigan machine still has punch even if he is not running it anymore.

I do not think this is the case and certainly would not expect Casten to be favored in that seat.

That's what I noticed as well. They completely obliterated the current IL-06. In the abstract, that would make sense, since that district was originally drawn to be the Republican vote sink for Chicagoland. Obviously, trends have moved us past the need for such a district. But that's in the abstract, as opposed to reality with an actual Democratic incumbent. If I didn't know any better, I would think they're not too fond of Casten. On the other hand, it does like the most Democratic precincts from the current IL-06 are in the proposed new IL-06.

Why would you expect that Newman would win the D primary in the new IL-06? This does not look like progressive friendly territory and Casten has seniority over Newman.

In any case, combine this with the first draft which had Newman in a district with Kinzinger that she could easily lose to him, and to me it indicates that the IL legislature (a.k.a. machine) has the knives out for Newman.

[lfromnj]

By the way all of Macoupin being added to IL 13th?

Did Andy Manar ask Pritkzer to push for that? There's no other reason to add such a county.

Maybe a desire to ensure every district outside the suburbs has at least 1 whole county. Macoupin used to have a decent D tint, and there are no other obvious candidates for a whole county while maintaining CD15's continuity. OTOH, if they went narrow, it would just be getting a different set of Trump precincts, just ones he won by less. I can only spot a handful of precincts outside CD13 Biden won that could reasonably be added, mainly in St. Clair.

That sounds like an unnecessarily contrived rule to explain a powerful Senator's home base being added to a district. The simpler explanation is more likely to be correct.

Except said Senator is no longer a Senator (with these maps drawn by the Leg), and his appointed successor got a reinforced senate seat in Springfield. He'd also be starting at a primary disadvantage simply based of Registered voter numbers compared to a Champaign-Urbana or East St. Louis candidate.

Yeah? What's he doing now? Why don't you google that and get back to me, and then we can talk about why the folks in Springfield — who are not dumb people — might have drawn the map the way they did. If you're looking for a hint, it has nothing to do with a nonexistent rule about counties.

Also the easiest whole county to add would have just been the rest of Piatt (between Decatur and Champaign). Maybe its possible they were just lazy here for some reason but its a possibility that Manar wants that seat.

[Donerail]

They really, really hate Newman it seems.

Indeed, it looks like the Madigan machine still has punch even if he is not running it anymore.

I do not think this is the case and certainly would not expect Casten to be favored in that seat.

That's what I noticed as well. They completely obliterated the current IL-06. In the abstract, that would make sense, since that district was originally drawn to be the Republican vote sink for Chicagoland. Obviously, trends have moved us past the need for such a district. But that's in the abstract, as opposed to reality with an actual Democratic incumbent. If I didn't know any better, I would think they're not too fond of Casten. On the other hand, it does like the most Democratic precincts from the current IL-06 are in the proposed new IL-06.

Why would you expect that Newman would win the D primary in the new IL-06? This does not look like progressive friendly territory and Casten has seniority over Newman.

I think (and this is not you, it's a general criticism) people overrate the importance of ideology and underestimate the importance of self-presentation and biographical details. Casten might score out as a more moderate candidate based on legislative votes and policy platforms, but he's also this sort of egghead scientist guy and an outspoken atheist (which, to his credit, is a profile that plays very well in the western burbs, where there's a big market for the In This House We Believe Science kind of thing).

But the majority of votes in this district are not coming from the west burbs; because of the redraw, most of the district is in the southwest burbs. This is a more suburban-with-three-kids kind of area, more downscale, more Catholic. Newman has been very precise about crafting an image of herself as a Concerned Suburban Mom, which is something that plays very well in this district. (Also, incidentally, a large Palestinian population.)

Contrast their bios on their official campaign websites — this is how they've chosen to present themselves to voters and their public. Newman spends the first few paragraphs of her bio talking about 1. her family's union roots, 2. the Beverly parish she grew up in, and 3. the Catholic university she went to. Casten's bio talks about "development of technologies to produce fuel-grade ethanol from cellulosic feedstocks." Very different vibes! And I suspect the former will play a lot better than the latter, as far as the bulk of this seat is concerned.

[Gracile]

They really, really hate Newman it seems.

Indeed, it looks like the Madigan machine still has punch even if he is not running it anymore.

I do not think this is the case and certainly would not expect Casten to be favored in that seat.

That's what I noticed as well. They completely obliterated the current IL-06. In the abstract, that would make sense, since that district was originally drawn to be the Republican vote sink for Chicagoland. Obviously, trends have moved us past the need for such a district. But that's in the abstract, as opposed to reality with an actual Democratic incumbent. If I didn't know any better, I would think they're not too fond of Casten. On the other hand, it does like the most Democratic precincts from the current IL-06 are in the proposed new IL-06.

Why would you expect that Newman would win the D primary in the new IL-06? This does not look like progressive friendly territory and Casten has seniority over Newman.

In any case, combine this with the first draft which had Newman in a district with Kinzinger that she could easily lose to him, and to me it indicates that the IL legislature (a.k.a. machine) has the knives out for Newman.

Newman has a few things going for her, namely the geography of the new district (more of its residents are from her current district than Casten's, plus a bunch of new turf neither of them represents), as well as being a woman who centered her campaign around women's issues which I would think would be appealing to primary voters here (it's pretty obvious who organizations like EMILY's List, etc. would support in this race). Also, Downers Grove/Glen Ellyn/Lombard/etc. are incredibly similar demographically and politically to the areas around LaGrange that Newman dominated Lipinski in, so these differences that you are talking about are overstated.

[Mr. Illini]

This is the map we were waiting for. Absolutely beautiful snakes from the city out to McHenry County. Territory for 17 maximized.

Casten's position is a weakened here. They took territory from him in DuPage and drew him down into the more conservative SW burbs like Tinley, Orland, etc. Also, obviously if the above is correct and they put him together with Newman, he can't be happy about it.

Overall, great map. Pass it now!

[politicallefty]

Why would you expect that Newman would win the D primary in the new IL-06? This does not look like progressive friendly territory and Casten has seniority over Newman.

In any case, combine this with the first draft which had Newman in a district with Kinzinger that she could easily lose to him, and to me it indicates that the IL legislature (a.k.a. machine) has the knives out for Newman.

I didn't say I expected that. I was just noting how they completely shredded the current IL-06. The new district being proposed has a very different character from Casten's current IL-06. Remember, as I mentioned above, the current IL-06 was drawn to be a Republican vote sink chock full of college-educated whites. The massive shift in suburbs such as those was nearly inconceivable when the district was drawn in 2011. But the way they took his district out from under him doesn't make me think those that are drawing this map are thinking of him in any positive regard.

[Crumpets]

The earmuffs are dead! Long live the snake!

[lfromnj]

https://chicago.suntimes.com/city-hall/2021/10/22/22740639/latino-caucus-ward-map-rekindles-black-hispanic-tensions

Chicago city wards has some interesting tension.

[compucomp]

They really, really hate Newman it seems.

Indeed, it looks like the Madigan machine still has punch even if he is not running it anymore.

I do not think this is the case and certainly would not expect Casten to be favored in that seat.

That's what I noticed as well. They completely obliterated the current IL-06. In the abstract, that would make sense, since that district was originally drawn to be the Republican vote sink for Chicagoland. Obviously, trends have moved us past the need for such a district. But that's in the abstract, as opposed to reality with an actual Democratic incumbent. If I didn't know any better, I would think they're not too fond of Casten. On the other hand, it does like the most Democratic precincts from the current IL-06 are in the proposed new IL-06.

Why would you expect that Newman would win the D primary in the new IL-06? This does not look like progressive friendly territory and Casten has seniority over Newman.

I think (and this is not you, it's a general criticism) people overrate the importance of ideology and underestimate the importance of self-presentation and biographical details. Casten might score out as a more moderate candidate based on legislative votes and policy platforms, but he's also this sort of egghead scientist guy and an outspoken atheist (which, to his credit, is a profile that plays very well in the western burbs, where there's a big market for the In This House We Believe Science kind of thing).

But the majority of votes in this district are not coming from the west burbs; because of the redraw, most of the district is in the southwest burbs. This is a more suburban-with-three-kids kind of area, more downscale, more Catholic. Newman has been very precise about crafting an image of herself as a Concerned Suburban Mom, which is something that plays very well in this district. (Also, incidentally, a large Palestinian population.)

Contrast their bios on their official campaign websites — this is how they've chosen to present themselves to voters and their public. Newman spends the first few paragraphs of her bio talking about 1. her family's union roots, 2. the Beverly parish she grew up in, and 3. the Catholic university she went to. Casten's bio talks about "development of technologies to produce fuel-grade ethanol from cellulosic feedstocks." Very different vibes! And I suspect the former will play a lot better than the latter, as far as the bulk of this seat is concerned.

Good points, if she can present herself as a progressive firebrand nationally to raise money and increase her profile, while presenting herself credibly to her district as one of the people and in tune with their concerns, then she is a skilled politician who has a good chance to win. We'll see if her local image can hold up when the ads start flying about how she's an ally (or a member?) of the Squad, supports defunding the police, voted against Iron Dome funding, etc.

[politicallefty]

Looking at some of the weaker districts (i.e. Biden<20) on this proposed map, it looks like IL Democrats are factoring in trendlines. Biden improved over Clinton in all of these seats, unlike the current map. They're really doing their best to make sure this is a durable map. It's worth remembering that the statewide margin was virtually unchanged between 2016 and 2020.

IL-06: Clinton+8.8 -> Biden+11.7
IL-08: Clinton+15.8 -> Biden+16.1
IL-11: Clinton+10.0 -> Biden+15.1
IL-13: Clinton+8.5 -> Biden+11.5
IL-14: Clinton+9.6 -> Biden+12.2
IL-17: Clinton+7.6 -> Biden+9.1

That compares with the current map, where IL-08 and IL-17 both swung to Trump from 2016 to 2020 (the latter being of far bigger consequence). I didn't notice that Krishnamoorthi is also taking a noticeable hit alongside Foster, although that seems to largely be the consequence of creating a new plurality Hispanic seat. That has definitely scrambled the map more than otherwise would be necessary, but it definitely buys IL Democrats some brownie points.

It's interesting to see how the federal trends haven't fully translated to the state level races yet. Pritzker had some of the ancestral Democratic strength downstate and some of the traditional weakness in the collar counties. He won the proposed IL-13 by almost 16% and only lost the proposed IL-12 by 24%. On the other hand, he only won the proposed IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, and IL-11 by 5%, 8%, 9%, and 2.4% respectively. He carried this IL-14 by double digits. For those keeping count, Pritzker won this map 14-3. In fact, this map is 14-3 for all races shown in DRA since 2016. This really is an aggressive gerrymander.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

This is the most egregious big state gerrymander I have made yet. lmao, It's 11D-2R and the the closest Dem seat is only 9.9% Biden, ever other D seat is double digit Biden. This map is actually good enough on VRA with 2 Hispanic seats and 3 AA seats.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/78793037-2548-4511-802a-b504c5c4275e

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/brendenmoore13/status/1452097859835285510

Ok probably not. Seems weird to add 70% Trump territory then.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not sure if Amarillo to Denton is more crazy or Danville to Chicago.

It's probably more crazy, if only slightly.
But only because Danville to Chicago has literally never been done before.

[dpmapper]

Not sure if Amarillo to Denton is more crazy or Danville to Chicago.

The non-gerrymandered version of the Amarillo district goes within 10 miles of Denton, so Chicago-Danville is clearly crazier. 

[It’s so Joever]

They should make a pledge to make “fair” lines only if Georgia, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina do the same if/when they get attacked for this by the media.

[Devils30]

They really, really hate Newman it seems.

Indeed, it looks like the Madigan machine still has punch even if he is not running it anymore.

I do not think this is the case and certainly would not expect Casten to be favored in that seat.

That's what I noticed as well. They completely obliterated the current IL-06. In the abstract, that would make sense, since that district was originally drawn to be the Republican vote sink for Chicagoland. Obviously, trends have moved us past the need for such a district. But that's in the abstract, as opposed to reality with an actual Democratic incumbent. If I didn't know any better, I would think they're not too fond of Casten. On the other hand, it does like the most Democratic precincts from the current IL-06 are in the proposed new IL-06.

Why would you expect that Newman would win the D primary in the new IL-06? This does not look like progressive friendly territory and Casten has seniority over Newman.

In any case, combine this with the first draft which had Newman in a district with Kinzinger that she could easily lose to him, and to me it indicates that the IL legislature (a.k.a. machine) has the knives out for Newman.

Casten will be much harder for Newman than Lipinski. Lipinski was anti-abortion and still came close to holding on, Casten won't have this problem.

[patzer]

I can’t help but think it must be possible to turn the 16th blue and put one of Casten and Newman into it, so they’re not forced into a primary with each other.