Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

14-3 strikes me as pretty risky, but I might be wrong? I think even under the new map, Republicans might win 5 districts on a good night (so not much change from the current partisan make-up of the state's House delegation), but who knows.

Anyway, hopefully OH, FL, and TX Republicans are taking notice.

CA is gonna be the same they are gonna redistrct 6 Rs out

[MT Treasurer]

14-3 strikes me as pretty risky, but I might be wrong? I think even under the new map, Republicans might win 5 districts on a good night (so not much change from the current partisan make-up of the state's House delegation), but who knows.

Anyway, hopefully OH, FL, and TX Republicans are taking notice.

CA is gonna be the same they are gonna redistrct 6 Rs out

Yeah, the GOP should be far more worried about the D gerrymander in CA than the ones in IL/MD given how much they stand to lose in CA. It probably isn’t too difficult to draw a durable 45D-7R gerrymander in CA, and I do expect the commission to go for it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why Pelosi isn't worried about the H D's should net 5 new seats which will pad the 5 seat Majority we already have Rs start out with a deficit of 10 not 5 with Cali Redistricting and the other seats will probably be a wash

But, since Biden is sitting pretty at 59% Approvals thanks to Stimulus checks, the D's can Expand their Majority a 241 H and a 56/44 Senate isn't certainly out of the question in 500 days if Crist beats DeSsntis and McCounghey or Julian Castro beats Abbott

2020 was close before Insurrectionists, there is a Commission being formed as we speak and Johnson would be DOA even more if Rs Filibustered the Commission bill, and if they did Filibuster it, Manchin and Sinema would be Emboldened to nuke the Filibuster, they want the Commission along with Romney, Murkowski, Collins and Sasse and Toomey

[S019]

14-3 strikes me as pretty risky, but I might be wrong? I think even under the new map, Republicans might win 5 districts on a good night (so not much change from the current partisan make-up of the state's House delegation), but who knows.

Anyway, hopefully OH, FL, and TX Republicans are taking notice.

The thing with OH is while the commission is weak there are lot of protections in place to create a somewhat fair map, and it is quite easy to sue to send the ballot to the state court (while while R leaning will definitely draw something more favorable to Dems then a legislative map) or the ballot box. Likewise, FL has the fair maps rule and while the state Supreme Court is once again R favored, the Republicans would be well advised to not overplay their hand. TX in theory could be brutal, but disastrous trends for the GOP in DFW, Austin and North Bexar are going to force them to cede at least a new Austin sink and probably more, and you can probably only draw out one RGV seat, more than 1 is not doable due to the mess it turns the I-35 corridor into. Honestly at least one of Gonzalez/Roy/Van Taylor/McCaul is not making it to 2030, and I'm willing to bet on this. The metros in TX are so bad for the GOP and you can only go out into rurals so much, before the rural incumbents complain. The smartest play is to give both new seats to Democrats (one Dallas and one Austin) and cede one of Gonzalez/Roy while ofc ceding Fletcher and Allred, even this though might not be enough if Austin and DFW keep bluing at the rate that they are. 14-3 isn't too risky, yes the 17th wouldn't be safe, but other than the 14th every other Chicagoland seat and the new downstate STL to Champaign sink would be safe.

[MT Treasurer]

The thing with OH is while the commission is weak there are lot of protections in place to create a somewhat fair map, and it is quite easy to sue to send the ballot to the state court (while while R leaning will definitely draw something more favorable to Dems then a legislative map) or the ballot box. Likewise, FL has the fair maps rule and while the state Supreme Court is once again R favored, the Republicans would be well advised to not overplay their hand. TX in theory could be brutal, but disastrous trends for the GOP in DFW, Austin and North Bexar are going to force them to cede at least a new Austin sink and probably more, and you can probably only draw out one RGV seat, more than 1 is not doable due to the mess it turns the I-35 corridor into. 14-3 isn't too risky, yes the 17th wouldn't be safe, but other than the 14th every other Chicagoland seat and the new downstate STL to Champaign sink would be safe.

Yeah, I agree that they shouldn’t completely overplay their hand for the reasons you stated, and it’s pretty obvious that they’re not going to gain a lot of seats out of the states where they’re in (semi-)control of redistricting (other than TN, it’s hard to think of a state without serious restrictions on R gerrymandering at this point). That said, if those protections exist in OH/FL but not in CA/IL/MD/AZ/etc., then why are so many even assuming that this round of redistricting will help Republicans hold the House? If anything, it seems like it won’t make any difference (best-case scenario for the GOP) or, more likely, will actually benefit Democrats. This is also why the Democratic "we can’t unilaterally disarm" rhetoric is wholly unconvincing to me and mostly relatively obvious pretense — they’re just as eager to gerrymander as Republicans were in 2010 and wouldn’t stand to benefit much (if at all) from 'truly fair' maps nationwide (obviously 'truly fair' doesn’t imply maps drawn by clearly biased commissions).

I’m under no illusion that redistricting will ever be a non-partisan or genuinely 'bipartisan' process but this idea that Republicans will benefit from the current round of redistricting is rather nonsensical.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What does the map look like?

It's basicaly Dave Wassermans map.

[Spectator]

14-3 strikes me as pretty risky, but I might be wrong? I think even under the new map, Republicans might win 5 districts on a good night (so not much change from the current partisan make-up of the state's House delegation), but who knows.

Anyway, hopefully OH, FL, and TX Republicans are taking notice.

It’s not too risky. The two downstate seats can be drawn to Clinton 52-40 (the Carbondale to East. St. Louis to Springfield to Decatur to Urbana-Champaign seat) and Bustos’s successor district can be drawn to 51-43 Clinton by making a similar snake that runs from Rockford and traces the border to Rock Island County to Peoria to Bloomington. I think Biden might have marginally improved in both downstate seats since he did better than Clinton in all the population areas downstate. The least ugly Dem gerrymander in Chicagoland that I can draw gets Underwood’s seat to 49-45 Clinton, a big change. That probably makes her pretty safe for the decade since that seat already flipped from Trump to Biden on the current lines, and shifts it another 9 points left.

[Hope For A New Era]

Anyway, hopefully OH, FL, and TX Republicans are taking notice.

Don't pretend. We all know that they would gerrymander equally intensely even if IL, NY, and CA all somehow ended up with completely fair maps, and they would laugh all the way to the House majority while Democrats unilaterally disarmed.

And your party is somehow still shocked and offended when we call them deplorable!

Where is the Republican moral compass? Gone. Gingrich broke it in 1994, and then the Tea Partiers threw what little of it was left into the harbor when a ni-I mean, black person was elected President. Deplorable.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

They should’ve just gone for an ugly-ish 13-2-1 (with the tossup as a D-leaning district).  This is a dumb map.  They should’ve just redrawn Bustos’ old district from scratch.  This version will likely flip before the decade is out even if we hold it in 2022.


As far as 13-3 maps go, Brittain33’s is much better b/c at least it would hold through the decade:

Light blue voted 8.6% Dem in 2012/16 composite. Purple voted 7.1% Dem.
For 2016 only, light blue was 0.6% Republican, purple was 7.9% Dem (so actually swung D.)

Ignore Cook County. I'm not done yet. Khaki is Lauren Underwood's district. Turquoise is closest to Sean Casten but he lives south of it.  

[Tintrlvr]

They should’ve just gone for an ugly-ish 13-2-1 (with the tossup as a D-leaning district).  This is a dumb map.  They should’ve just redrawn Bustos’ old district from scratch.  This version will likely flip before the decade is out even if we hold it in 2022.


As far as 13-3 maps go, Brittain33’s is much better b/c at least it would hold through the decade:

Light blue voted 8.6% Dem in 2012/16 composite. Purple voted 7.1% Dem.
For 2016 only, light blue was 0.6% Republican, purple was 7.9% Dem (so actually swung D.)

Ignore Cook County. I'm not done yet. Khaki is Lauren Underwood's district. Turquoise is closest to Sean Casten but he lives south of it.  

I don't know, that East St. Louis district is not going to elect a Dem Congressman if it voted for Trump in 2016. It's true that that map shores up the Rock Island-centered district, but there's a trade-off there if you want to try to make a winnable district in the southern half of the state.

[Sol]

The IL Dems could also go for something like this, which gives your two fairly firmly Clinton voting downstate districts and leaves Rockford for Underwood.

link

Nasty little gerrymander of downstate. Both Dem districts are around 50%D-42%R on 2016 numbers, light blue is marginally more Dem.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The IL Dems could also go for something like this, which gives your two fairly firmly Clinton voting downstate districts and leaves Rockford for Underwood.

link

Nasty little gerrymander of downstate. Both Dem districts are around 50%D-42%R on 2016 numbers, light blue is marginally more Dem.

Even better!

[Gass3268]

I like this one

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1394350840345997320?s=20

[new_patomic]

I like this one

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1394350840345997320?s=20

Suspiciously close to what I've been messing around with on DRA...

But in any case for other commentators, no, a 14-3 map isn't risky... depending on how you draw it. You can easily create two downstate districts that Democrats are actually trending positively in if you're willing to snake them hard enough. And even without Rockford you can do quite a bit to shore up Underwood's seat, while keeping the rest of the delegation in fairly safe seats that should survive anything but a monsterous wave. All while staying VRA compliant.

What would strike me as dumb is if they go for a 14-3 map while leaving the 17th more or less intact as is. If you're going to keep it confined to Rockford/Peoria/QC and not go into Bloomington, you can atleast do a lot more to shed rural areas, maybe take it to Ottawa. It won't be exactly safe but it'd be safer.

[Gracile]

The problem with most 14-3 configurations isn't how they voted now, but how resistant the downstate districts (particularly IL-17) would be to current partisan trends continuing or potential unfavorable midterm cycles throughout the decade. A Rockford/Peoria/Quad Cities district that doesn't take in one of the major Democratic cities (probably Bloomington) would not be tenable for that reason.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I like this one

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1394350840345997320?s=20

that's a better 14-3 than my one.

[Non Swing Voter]

Why don't dems do what Republicans do with Austin in TX?  just have a ton of districts that stretch out from Chicago, which are 55-45 Dem?

[Gass3268]

Why don't dems do what Republicans do with Austin in TX?  just have a ton of districts that stretch out from Chicago, which are 55-45 Dem?

VRA and incumbents

[BigSkyBob]

The GOP won the state-legislative coinflip after 1990 and, dutifully, drew a map favorable to the GOP. The Democrats appealed the the Supreme Court who ordered a number of districts redrawn. Some of those districts were struck down as "non-compact."  A significant number of the state's current legislative seats are less compact that the ones struck down in the 90's. If the GOP gains control of the IL Supreme Court they need only follow precedent to strike them down.

[Gass3268]

The GOP won the state-legislative coinflip after 1990 and, dutifully, drew a map favorable to the GOP. The Democrats appealed the the Supreme Court who ordered a number of districts redrawn. Some of those districts were struck down as "non-compact."  A significant number of the state's current legislative seats are less compact that the ones struck down in the 90's. If the GOP gains control of the IL Supreme Court they need only follow precedent to strike them down.

Thankfully the Democrats could redraw the State Supreme Court districts before the 2022 election.

[lfromnj]

The GOP won the state-legislative coinflip after 1990 and, dutifully, drew a map favorable to the GOP. The Democrats appealed the the Supreme Court who ordered a number of districts redrawn. Some of those districts were struck down as "non-compact."  A significant number of the state's current legislative seats are less compact that the ones struck down in the 90's. If the GOP gains control of the IL Supreme Court they need only follow precedent to strike them down.

Thankfully the Democrats could redraw the State Supreme Court districts before the 2022 election.

Issue though is counties can't be split and Cook is the first 3 districts as mandated by the state constitution which would require an amendment to change. You can still draw 2 Collar county districts but at the judicial level the collars are still relatively speaking swingy. It would improve their chances still but I wouldn't call it a slamdunk.  There is a decent excuse to redistrict as the districts have pretty varying population for the non Cook districts.

[Gracile]

We could see initial drafts of legislative maps today-

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkMaxwellTV/status/1395741425082544140

[Gass3268]

Sounds like the legislative maps will be dropping within the hour.

[Gass3268]

STATE HOUSE MAP!!!

[lfromnj]

STATE HOUSE MAP!!!

They really hate college students lol, they connected Bloomington to Peoria instead of just giving it its own house seat.

edit: I forgot its because of senate nesting.