Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Sol]

Here is a reasonable map of Illinois which of course will never be drawn. Presumably something grotesque will become law to screw the Pubs out of two or three seats, that are competitive in this map.

I have this fantasy of states forming a compact, so if Illinois does its thing and takes away 2 Pub seats in erose slice and dice, then Ohio and NC retaliate in kind and down the road we go to hell, in a game that maybe in the end will not net either party overall much of anything at all, attended by some more than usual dummymander risk given how unstable  the party coalitions are at the moment. All sound and fury, with bodies strewn on the landscape, signifying no gain, only pain. The Fruited Plain is a very flawed place. Who knew?

IMO Bureau, LaSalle, and Putnam belong in the same district--LaSalle-Peru is a metro area and a pretty obvious community.

[Torie]

Carrying forward the all sound and fury theme   :

[Sol]

Carrying forward the all sound and fury theme   :

?

[Torie]

Putnam is not a county with more than two or three precincts of population. You wish in other words could be easily accommodated. If you respect your elders, perhaps I may twist the clock to move Putnam from one safe pub CD to another on this map. It will require, pari passu, a larger chop of another county by about 6K in population, but I think the planet can survive that.

[Mr.Phips]

Torie there are decent chances for cleaner IL maps depending if IL D's redistrict the state supreme court. Even if they redistrict they can't split Cook county and at a downballot level suburban D voters might still vote for an R judge.

Dems can easily redraw the 2nd district so that it takes Will county from the 3rd and gives the 3rd the redder counties Western half of Northern Illinois.  That would be a pretty tough district for a Republican to get 60% in (which is needed for retention).

[lfromnj]

Torie there are decent chances for cleaner IL maps depending if IL D's redistrict the state supreme court. Even if they redistrict they can't split Cook county and at a downballot level suburban D voters might still vote for an R judge.

Dems can easily redraw the 2nd district so that it takes Will county from the 3rd and gives the 3rd the redder counties Western half of Northern Illinois.  That would be a pretty tough district for a Republican to get 60% in (which is needed for retention).

Easier said than done, Kilbride was the first judge to ever fail retention. I don't really think Suburban D upballot voters are going to kick out a non controversial judge as there wouldn't even be a D on ballot for them to vote for.

[Mr.Phips]

Torie there are decent chances for cleaner IL maps depending if IL D's redistrict the state supreme court. Even if they redistrict they can't split Cook county and at a downballot level suburban D voters might still vote for an R judge.

Dems can easily redraw the 2nd district so that it takes Will county from the 3rd and gives the 3rd the redder counties Western half of Northern Illinois.  That would be a pretty tough district for a Republican to get 60% in (which is needed for retention).

Easier said than done, Kilbride was the first judge to ever fail retention. I don't really think Suburban D upballot voters are going to kick out a non controversial judge as there wouldn't even be a D on ballot for them to vote for.

If Dems properly ran a non retention campaign like Republicans did against Kilbride, they would have a decent chance.

[lfromnj]

Torie there are decent chances for cleaner IL maps depending if IL D's redistrict the state supreme court. Even if they redistrict they can't split Cook county and at a downballot level suburban D voters might still vote for an R judge.

Dems can easily redraw the 2nd district so that it takes Will county from the 3rd and gives the 3rd the redder counties Western half of Northern Illinois.  That would be a pretty tough district for a Republican to get 60% in (which is needed for retention).

Easier said than done, Kilbride was the first judge to ever fail retention. I don't really think Suburban D upballot voters are going to kick out a non controversial judge as there wouldn't even be a D on ballot for them to vote for.

If Dems properly ran a non retention campaign like Republicans did against Kilbride, they would have a decent chance.

Of course, can't deny that although IIRC Kilbride was involved with some corruption regarding Madigan which might have been what took him down.

Also northern Illinois rural areas are not ancestrally D unlike Southern IL but that area is too red by now.

[Mr.Phips]

Torie there are decent chances for cleaner IL maps depending if IL D's redistrict the state supreme court. Even if they redistrict they can't split Cook county and at a downballot level suburban D voters might still vote for an R judge.

Dems can easily redraw the 2nd district so that it takes Will county from the 3rd and gives the 3rd the redder counties Western half of Northern Illinois.  That would be a pretty tough district for a Republican to get 60% in (which is needed for retention).

Easier said than done, Kilbride was the first judge to ever fail retention. I don't really think Suburban D upballot voters are going to kick out a non controversial judge as there wouldn't even be a D on ballot for them to vote for.

If Dems properly ran a non retention campaign like Republicans did against Kilbride, they would have a decent chance.

Of course, can't deny that although IIRC Kilbride was involved with some corruption regarding Madigan which might have been what took him down.

Also northern Illinois rural areas are not ancestrally D unlike Southern IL but that area is too red by now.

Another option would be to redraw the Kilbride district by taking in more of the Chicago suburbs and giving rural areas to the 2nd district.  That way Dems would have a decent chance at retaining the 3rd district without having to try and kick out an incumbent.

[Nyvin]

I just barely could get three districts with 50%+ AA CVAP.   There's also no real need for the earmuffs district anymore since a Hispanic majority can easily be made on the south side part of the Hispanic area.

I think the IL Dems should just leave Davenport to a GOP sink and make a Champaign-Bloomington-Peoria district instead and put Rockford with McHenry county to make something close to two swing seats.  Bustos can take her pick which one she wants to run in.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e648cf3f-49fa-48fd-b08f-4f7b409fb813





11 safe D, 4 safe R, and two tossups (13 and 16)

With current trends the tossups probably end up with the Democrats at some point or another.  In 2022 Bustos would win one  I imagine the GOP would get the other,  down the road both would be dem.

[Mr.Phips]

I just barely could get three districts with 50%+ AA CVAP.   There's also no real need for the earmuffs district anymore since a Hispanic majority can easily be made on the south side part of the Hispanic area.

I think the IL Dems should just leave Davenport to a GOP sink and make a Champaign-Bloomington-Peoria district instead and put Rockford with McHenry county to make something close to two swing seats.  Bustos can take her pick which one she wants to run in.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e648cf3f-49fa-48fd-b08f-4f7b409fb813





11 safe D, 4 safe R, and two tossups (13 and 16)

With current trends the tossups probably end up with the Democrats at some point or another.  In 2022 Bustos would win one  I imagine the GOP would get the other,  down the road both would be dem.

Dems can’t afford to not have 13 safe seats in Illinois given what is going to happen in other states.

[Green Line]

I just barely could get three districts with 50%+ AA CVAP.   There's also no real need for the earmuffs district anymore since a Hispanic majority can easily be made on the south side part of the Hispanic area.

I think the IL Dems should just leave Davenport to a GOP sink and make a Champaign-Bloomington-Peoria district instead and put Rockford with McHenry county to make something close to two swing seats.  Bustos can take her pick which one she wants to run in.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e648cf3f-49fa-48fd-b08f-4f7b409fb813





11 safe D, 4 safe R, and two tossups (13 and 16)

With current trends the tossups probably end up with the Democrats at some point or another.  In 2022 Bustos would win one  I imagine the GOP would get the other,  down the road both would be dem.

While I agree with you that 2 ear muff districs are no longer necessary to elect hispanic members, Chuy is not going to be happy with this.  The electorate will probably 50-50 white/hispanic, with the whites being city workers.  I think he'll be fine, but there are a lot of different interests going up against each other here.  If Madigan holds on, there is likely doa for the same reason, as it swallows all of the machine areas.  I think both Chuy and Madigan would prefer a continuation of the earmuff.  If Madigan is not Speaker in November, this changes things, but I think Chuy (who will have even more influence in this scenario) would still want an earmuff.

And that 5th district will probably elect a white too, which I don't think was your intention.

[Sol]

Chuy is DSA-adjacent right? I can't imagine the white voters in Pilsen or wherever are really going to go against him in a primary, especially since IIRC the Latino pop. is growing in outer parts of the district.

[Nyvin]

I just barely could get three districts with 50%+ AA CVAP.   There's also no real need for the earmuffs district anymore since a Hispanic majority can easily be made on the south side part of the Hispanic area.

I think the IL Dems should just leave Davenport to a GOP sink and make a Champaign-Bloomington-Peoria district instead and put Rockford with McHenry county to make something close to two swing seats.  Bustos can take her pick which one she wants to run in.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e648cf3f-49fa-48fd-b08f-4f7b409fb813



11 safe D, 4 safe R, and two tossups (13 and 16)

With current trends the tossups probably end up with the Democrats at some point or another.  In 2022 Bustos would win one  I imagine the GOP would get the other,  down the road both would be dem.

Dems can’t afford to not have 13 safe seats in Illinois given what is going to happen in other states.

Well, Biden won that IL-13 district by something like two points (I got 49.4% Biden to 47.9% Trump...?) and I really don't see any better district to make downstate that doesn't involve a bunch of hideous tentacles all over the place.

I can't calculate IL-16 with the divided counties, but pretty sure it's a narrow Biden win too (~1-2%).   Both are trending D and Bustos is a great candidate.   I think it's pretty close to the best they can ask for given the circumstances.

[Nyvin]

I just barely could get three districts with 50%+ AA CVAP.   There's also no real need for the earmuffs district anymore since a Hispanic majority can easily be made on the south side part of the Hispanic area.

I think the IL Dems should just leave Davenport to a GOP sink and make a Champaign-Bloomington-Peoria district instead and put Rockford with McHenry county to make something close to two swing seats.  Bustos can take her pick which one she wants to run in.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e648cf3f-49fa-48fd-b08f-4f7b409fb813



11 safe D, 4 safe R, and two tossups (13 and 16)

With current trends the tossups probably end up with the Democrats at some point or another.  In 2022 Bustos would win one  I imagine the GOP would get the other,  down the road both would be dem.

While I agree with you that 2 ear muff districs are no longer necessary to elect hispanic members, Chuy is not going to be happy with this.  The electorate will probably 50-50 white/hispanic, with the whites being city workers.  I think he'll be fine, but there are a lot of different interests going up against each other here.  If Madigan holds on, there is likely doa for the same reason, as it swallows all of the machine areas.  I think both Chuy and Madigan would prefer a continuation of the earmuff.  If Madigan is not Speaker in November, this changes things, but I think Chuy (who will have even more influence in this scenario) would still want an earmuff.

And that 5th district will probably elect a white too, which I don't think was your intention.

The 5th does elect a white dem (most likely), but it's impossible to draw two hispanic CVAP majority districts without going absolutely crazy on the north Chicago area.   You'd need some bizzare tentacle down to Aurora or something.

[Sol]

Putnam is not a county with more than two or three precincts of population. You wish in other words could be easily accommodated. If you respect your elders, perhaps I may twist the clock to move Putnam from one safe pub CD to another on this map. It will require, pari passu, a larger chop of another county by about 6K in population, but I think the planet can survive that.

I wasn't just suggesting Putnam; LaSalle ought to go with Bureau too.

[Torie]

Putnam is not a county with more than two or three precincts of population. You wish in other words could be easily accommodated. If you respect your elders, perhaps I may twist the clock to move Putnam from one safe pub CD to another on this map. It will require, pari passu, a larger chop of another county by about 6K in population, but I think the planet can survive that.

I wasn't just suggesting Putnam; LaSalle ought to go with Bureau too.

[Green Line]

Take Lyons Township out of the 8th and replace it with Stickney Township, Garfield Ridge, and Clearing.  Then I will approve.

Edit:  And for good measure, chop off the western half of Orland and take in Marquette Park, Scottsdale, and some other areas around there.  Thanks.

[Torie]

When I was in college, CD's 1, 15, and 8, as drawn at the moment as a "work in progress," were about close to 100% white working class and totally racist when it came to blacks. Now as to 1 and 15, they have been almost entirely supplanted with Hispanics, who were accepted, in a way blacks were not. And way back then, Chicago had but one Mexican restaurant. I suspect there are a few more now.

[Green Line]

When I was in college, CD's 1, 15, and 8, as drawn at the moment as a "work in progress," were about close to 100% white working class and totally racist when it came to blacks. Now as to 1 and 15, they have been almost entirely supplanted with Hispanics, who were accepted, in a way blacks were not. And way back then, Chicago had but one Mexican restaurant. I suspect there are a few more now.

Yes, we've built a beautiful multi-ethic community of working class irish, mexicans, and poles.  Now racist white Democrats in Western Springs, La Grange, and Orland and trying to ruin it all.

[Sol]

Apparently it's still possible to draw 3 Black majority districts in Illinois.

Clearly this is totally mandated by the VRA.

Just kidding lol

[Nyvin]

Created this 11D-7R map. 3 districts are considered competitive"

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ae6c9585-a3f2-4fb3-b678-912b74537033

Uhh..yeah, at least in the Chicago area this would not work at all,  you have no Hispanic majority seat at all (CVAP) and IL-1 in that map is severely over packed with black voters.

That IL-8 district is also obviously drawn to be favorable to R's.

[Torie]

Drawing two Hispanic CD's is very, very laborious. You have to do it one precinct at a time, and then move stuff around, to get close to the same HCVAP percentage for each of them. And the  amazing thing is that the VRA in this instance might well require the undergoing of this excruciating exercise of drawing very erose lines. Chicagoland and NYC are both very challenging in this regard.

[muon2]

Drawing two Hispanic CD's is very, very laborious. You have to do it one precinct at a time, and then move stuff around, to get close to the same HCVAP percentage for each of them. And the  amazing thing is that the VRA in this instance might well require the undergoing of this excruciating exercise of drawing very erose lines. Chicagoland and NYC are both very challenging in this regard.

There are cases in the 7th circuit upholding 59.2% HVAP as performing in Chicagoland. The number was based on Gutierrez' success with that percentage when CVAP wasn't available in the 1990s. I don't know if they will shift from that if presented with a map, or demand a HCVAP only analysis.

[Sol]

I'm trying my hand at a fair map presently and have a couple of questions:

1. Should I try to prioritize city lines or township lines, or both? Which should take precedence?

2. Considering the loss of a district and the decline in population in Chicago, you sort of have to lose one of the Black majority districts, and because of geography it seems like the 7th is the obvious choice. The trouble is is that the 1st thus ends up overpacked with the Black community and needs to be unpacked to give Black voters to make the 7th a coalition district. Is it better to send the 1st to SW Cook or to the North Side?