Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Torie]

Do you think you can get yourself quoted in an article about redistricting like you did 10 years ago with Pennsylvania and the octopus?

If BRTD runs the traps for me, sure. The theme this time would be how to mask gerrymanders, with talking points about how it is really a map that hews to good government metrics. Heck, I could even chat about how it is "necessary" to quin-chop Gwinnett to avoid chops elsewhere. Really. Lawyers are dangerous! 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d3bb9d0d-d188-4fcc-876f-2d685e511ed2
How good is this as a Democratic gerrymander aimed towards compactness?

[Torie]

It's very good I think.

[Gass3268]

Good news! The Illinois State Legislature has solved the Census problem by using alternative data.

The census delay is causing havoc for several states, with some shifting map deadlines or election dates, or even suing the Census Bureau in an effort to get data earlier. But the Illinois Constitution’s deadline could not be changed in time to affect the mapmaking process this year.

The state constitution does not really hamper legislators from moving forward despite the census delays, however, because it does not require the use of federal census data in drawing maps, stating only that redistricting occur “following each federal decennial census year.”

That leaves an opening for Democrats to use other sources of population data, including estimates from the federal census’ American Community Survey or private vendor data, to draw map lines.

“It’s pretty clear that you can use estimates and I think if you were to look at case law from other states, you can see that,” said state Rep. Jay Hoffman, a member of both Democratic House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch’s leadership team and the House remap panel.

“You have to lay the groundwork that the estimates are accurate and I would venture to guess that the technology that exists today makes it much more sophisticated and accurate whether using the actual census tract or estimates in maps in the past that have been found constitutional,” said Hoffman, of downstate Swansea.

Hoffman said Democrats have yet to decide what data sources they’ll use for moving forward.

Source

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good news! The Illinois State Legislature has solved the Census problem by using alternative data.

The census delay is causing havoc for several states, with some shifting map deadlines or election dates, or even suing the Census Bureau in an effort to get data earlier. But the Illinois Constitution’s deadline could not be changed in time to affect the mapmaking process this year.

The state constitution does not really hamper legislators from moving forward despite the census delays, however, because it does not require the use of federal census data in drawing maps, stating only that redistricting occur “following each federal decennial census year.”

That leaves an opening for Democrats to use other sources of population data, including estimates from the federal census’ American Community Survey or private vendor data, to draw map lines.

“It’s pretty clear that you can use estimates and I think if you were to look at case law from other states, you can see that,” said state Rep. Jay Hoffman, a member of both Democratic House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch’s leadership team and the House remap panel.

“You have to lay the groundwork that the estimates are accurate and I would venture to guess that the technology that exists today makes it much more sophisticated and accurate whether using the actual census tract or estimates in maps in the past that have been found constitutional,” said Hoffman, of downstate Swansea.

Hoffman said Democrats have yet to decide what data sources they’ll use for moving forward.

Source

Wonderful news!

[Mr.Phips]

Good news! The Illinois State Legislature has solved the Census problem by using alternative data.

The census delay is causing havoc for several states, with some shifting map deadlines or election dates, or even suing the Census Bureau in an effort to get data earlier. But the Illinois Constitution’s deadline could not be changed in time to affect the mapmaking process this year.

The state constitution does not really hamper legislators from moving forward despite the census delays, however, because it does not require the use of federal census data in drawing maps, stating only that redistricting occur “following each federal decennial census year.”

That leaves an opening for Democrats to use other sources of population data, including estimates from the federal census’ American Community Survey or private vendor data, to draw map lines.

“It’s pretty clear that you can use estimates and I think if you were to look at case law from other states, you can see that,” said state Rep. Jay Hoffman, a member of both Democratic House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch’s leadership team and the House remap panel.

“You have to lay the groundwork that the estimates are accurate and I would venture to guess that the technology that exists today makes it much more sophisticated and accurate whether using the actual census tract or estimates in maps in the past that have been found constitutional,” said Hoffman, of downstate Swansea.

Hoffman said Democrats have yet to decide what data sources they’ll use for moving forward.

Source

They must have seen my suggestion lol.

[Mike Thick]

Real Madigan hours who up

[Torie]

I suspect SCOTUS would insist on real data if it is feasible to delay the primary dates, in order to enforce the population equality strictures set forth in its previous decisions.

[muon2]

Keep in mind that there is no deadline in IL for the congressional redistricting other than what is needed to meet federal law. Talk about alternative data sets are most important for legislative redistricting which has a Jun 30 deadline before a bipartisan back-up commission is formed to draw the maps. Congressional maps can be drawn and passed in late Aug using real 2020 Census data in the "legacy" format, and it won't affect the primary date or Dem control over the process.

[Gracile]

What is the general sense of what will happen to Bustos/IL-17? This seems like the most difficult of the Democratic-held districts to make truly safe for the decade because of its partisan trendline. Making minimal changes like adding in some more Democratic precincts from the Peoria and Rockford areas while cutting off some of the outlying Republican areas (as in Wasserman's map) won't be enough. The mapmakers would have to do something much more dramatic to shore up her seat like drawing a tentacle from the Quad Cities through one of the heavily Democratic downstate cities (like Springfield or Bloomington). This also seems like it might complicate plans to make a potential downstate district that would connect most of the heavily Democratic cities (unless the solution is Bustos running in this district, I suppose).

To be clear, I don't think it is impossible for the mapmakers to make both districts some Democratic in the near future; I'm just skeptical that the new IL-17 wouldn't be anything other than a band-aid to temporarily stall the Republican trendline in parts of Northwestern/rural Central IL or that it wouldn't fall in a particularly bad cycle for Democrats.

Someone more knowledgeable on this subject can feel free to interject.

[lfromnj]

What is the general sense of what will happen to Bustos/IL-17? This seems like the most difficult of the Democratic-held districts to make truly safe for the decade because of its partisan trendline. Making minimal changes like adding in some more Democratic precincts from the Peoria and Rockford areas while cutting off some of the outlying Republican areas (as in Wasserman's map) won't be enough. The mapmakers would have to do something much more dramatic to shore up her seat like drawing a tentacle from the Quad Cities through one of the heavily Democratic downstate cities (like Springfield or Bloomington). This also seems like it might complicate plans to make a potential downstate district that would connect most of the heavily Democratic cities (unless the solution is Bustos running in this district, I suppose).

To be clear, I don't think it is impossible for the mapmakers to make both districts some Democratic in the near future; I'm just skeptical that the new IL-17 wouldn't be anything other than a band-aid to temporarily stall the Republican trendline in parts of Northwestern/rural Central IL or that it wouldn't fall in a particularly bad cycle for Democrats.

Someone more knowledgeable on this subject can feel free to interject.

The additional areas of Peoria and Rockford that can be added are historically Republican and upscale. Clinton actually did better than Obama 08 in this areas IIRC. Removing the furthest right trending rurals and adding Bloomington itself would reduce the worst of the trends.

[Torie]

Here is my updated Illinois map drawn pursuant to neutral redistricting principles, which of course will never be drawn by the Dems.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/11b121cd-85fe-43cf-a562-928fa22c1562

And here is my quick attempt at a Dem downstate gerrymander. I am not sure it is really worth it for the Dems to go there without that much movement in the partisan numbers, but we shall see.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b52fadc-f977-46cc-babf-81008f957e7e

[Nyvin]

Here is my updated Illinois map drawn pursuant to neutral redistricting principles, which of course will never be drawn by the Dems.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/11b121cd-85fe-43cf-a562-928fa22c1562

And here is my quick attempt at a Dem downstate gerrymander. I am not sure it is really worth it for the Dems to go there without that much movement in the partisan numbers, but we shall see.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b52fadc-f977-46cc-babf-81008f957e7e

72% BVAP....?

[Torie]

Here is my updated Illinois map drawn pursuant to neutral redistricting principles, which of course will never be drawn by the Dems.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/11b121cd-85fe-43cf-a562-928fa22c1562

And here is my quick attempt at a Dem downstate gerrymander. I am not sure it is really worth it for the Dems to go there without that much movement in the partisan numbers, but we shall see.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b52fadc-f977-46cc-babf-81008f957e7e

72% BVAP....?

It's not gerrymandered so that is OK (county, township, city, and village lines were respected), and there is not a third 50%+ BCVAP CD to be had. However, for the Hispanic CD to be performing, the black percentage needed to be held down, so in the city of Chicago between the two CD's, the two ethnic groups needed to be separated. Having said that, the lines of Ward 2 in Chicago are wild, so that ward was tri-chopped.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is my updated Illinois map drawn pursuant to neutral redistricting principles, which of course will never be drawn by the Dems.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/11b121cd-85fe-43cf-a562-928fa22c1562

And here is my quick attempt at a Dem downstate gerrymander. I am not sure it is really worth it for the Dems to go there without that much movement in the partisan numbers, but we shall see.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b52fadc-f977-46cc-babf-81008f957e7e

Thoughts on this more race-neutral map?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/00123e57-f799-4541-a47a-704a2d6ea26b

[Torie]

Here is my updated Illinois map drawn pursuant to neutral redistricting principles, which of course will never be drawn by the Dems.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/11b121cd-85fe-43cf-a562-928fa22c1562

And here is my quick attempt at a Dem downstate gerrymander. I am not sure it is really worth it for the Dems to go there without that much movement in the partisan numbers, but we shall see.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b52fadc-f977-46cc-babf-81008f957e7e

Thoughts on this more race-neutral map?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/00123e57-f799-4541-a47a-704a2d6ea26b

That is a very well done map. I don't at least as an initial matter have any criticisms at all. But then I have a bias towards rectangular shapes. Were you cognizant of townships in Chicagoland? They matter in that part of the world. I remember people when I was at the U of Chicago saying they were from Maine Township. I would say what?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is my updated Illinois map drawn pursuant to neutral redistricting principles, which of course will never be drawn by the Dems.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/11b121cd-85fe-43cf-a562-928fa22c1562

And here is my quick attempt at a Dem downstate gerrymander. I am not sure it is really worth it for the Dems to go there without that much movement in the partisan numbers, but we shall see.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b52fadc-f977-46cc-babf-81008f957e7e

Thoughts on this more race-neutral map?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/00123e57-f799-4541-a47a-704a2d6ea26b

That is a very well done map. I don't at least as an initial matter have any criticisms at all. But then I have a bias towards rectangular shapes. Were you cognizant of townships in Chicagoland? They matter in that part of the world. I remember people when I was at the U of Chicago saying they were from Maine Township. I would say what?

Townships are in fact my preferred building block, especially given the sheer erratic quality of cities and towns in many cases.
I took care to avoid any unnecessary township splits. Math forced the splitting of Winfield (DuPage) and Downers Grove (DuPage) townships, but I at least tried to make the splits have straight lines.
For me, townships have a consistency to them that is a very attractive to work with.

[Torie]

Here is my updated Illinois map drawn pursuant to neutral redistricting principles, which of course will never be drawn by the Dems.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/11b121cd-85fe-43cf-a562-928fa22c1562

And here is my quick attempt at a Dem downstate gerrymander. I am not sure it is really worth it for the Dems to go there without that much movement in the partisan numbers, but we shall see.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b52fadc-f977-46cc-babf-81008f957e7e

Thoughts on this more race-neutral map?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/00123e57-f799-4541-a47a-704a2d6ea26b

That is a very well done map. I don't at least as an initial matter have any criticisms at all. But then I have a bias towards rectangular shapes. Were you cognizant of townships in Chicagoland? They matter in that part of the world. I remember people when I was at the U of Chicago saying they were from Maine Township. I would say what?

Townships are in fact my preferred building block, especially given the sheer erratic quality of cities and towns in many cases.
I took care to avoid any unnecessary township splits. Math forced the splitting of Winfield (DuPage) and Downers Grove (DuPage) townships, but I at least tried to make the splits have straight lines.
For me, townships have a consistency to them that is a very attractive to work with.

Indeed, although when it comes to municipal lines, as you well know, nothing is quite as insane as what does on in Franklin County, Ohio. I suggest that Franklin County follow the example of what Mayor Lugar did with uni-gov when Indianapolis was merged with Marion County (yeah, I am actually old enough to remember that happening. Some Dems said it was a Pub plot to make Indianapolis "forever Republican." Ha! Forever is a long time. 

[Gass3268]

No shocker here

https://twitter.com/GregHinz/status/1387124391461457922?s=20

[Mr. Illini]

Thank you, king! No independent maps in Illinois until we have them nationwide.

[muon2]

Here is my updated Illinois map drawn pursuant to neutral redistricting principles, which of course will never be drawn by the Dems.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/11b121cd-85fe-43cf-a562-928fa22c1562

And here is my quick attempt at a Dem downstate gerrymander. I am not sure it is really worth it for the Dems to go there without that much movement in the partisan numbers, but we shall see.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b52fadc-f977-46cc-babf-81008f957e7e

Thoughts on this more race-neutral map?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/00123e57-f799-4541-a47a-704a2d6ea26b

That is a very well done map. I don't at least as an initial matter have any criticisms at all. But then I have a bias towards rectangular shapes. Were you cognizant of townships in Chicagoland? They matter in that part of the world. I remember people when I was at the U of Chicago saying they were from Maine Township. I would say what?

Townships are in fact my preferred building block, especially given the sheer erratic quality of cities and towns in many cases.
I took care to avoid any unnecessary township splits. Math forced the splitting of Winfield (DuPage) and Downers Grove (DuPage) townships, but I at least tried to make the splits have straight lines.
For me, townships have a consistency to them that is a very attractive to work with.

Indeed, although when it comes to municipal lines, as you well know, nothing is quite as insane as what does on in Franklin County, Ohio. I suggest that Franklin County follow the example of what Mayor Lugar did with uni-gov when Indianapolis was merged with Marion County (yeah, I am actually old enough to remember that happening. Some Dems said it was a Pub plot to make Indianapolis "forever Republican." Ha! Forever is a long time. 

In suburban Chicago the ideal subunit is the school district. The lines are relatively straight, very rarely change and they are far more a community of interest than townships. Unfortunately precincts are created by township not school district so townships get more attention by map makers.

[muon2]

Thank you, king! No independent maps in Illinois until we have them nationwide.

At best Congress can mandate them for congressional districts, but not for state legislative districts. Since Pubs in their supermajority states say the same thing, your statement is equivalent of saying no independent maps for the state ever. The irony is that in states like IL an independent map is unlikely to affect the Dem control of the state, but would probably put a number of incumbents at risk in primaries or general elections with ungerrymandered districts.

[Sol]

Bustos retiring should make this interesting!

[Brittain33]

Bustos retiring should make this interesting!

Indeed. I'd like to play with putting Rockford in IL-14 and creating a new Dem district along I-74 from the Quad Cities south.

Once you are past Peoria and Bloomington, what makes more sense? East to Champaign or south to Springfield?

[Zaybay]

Bustos retiring should make this interesting!

Does it really? The Dems don't really benefit from trying a new combination than the combination already used. Underwood can be shored up easily without using Rockford, and none of the other Chicago area Dems need to take in land half-way across the state. The Dems still largely have the incentive to draw a Rock Island/Rockford/Peoria district, just like they have right now. Otherwise, the Dems are losing out, since instead of a tossup/tilt D district, an R sink is made when there does not need to be.