Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[lfromnj]

I'm trying my hand at a fair map presently and have a couple of questions:

1. Should I try to prioritize city lines or township lines, or both? Which should take precedence?

2. Considering the loss of a district and the decline in population in Chicago, you sort of have to lose one of the Black majority districts, and because of geography it seems like the 7th is the obvious choice. The trouble is is that the 1st thus ends up overpacked with the Black community and needs to be unpacked to give Black voters to make the 7th a coalition district. Is it better to send the 1st to SW Cook or to the North Side?

The best option is probably to create a new coalitian hispanic-black district that would still elect a black member of chocie in 2022 but more likely to elect the hispanic option in 2030.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1354523379836071936
Due to the Census Data Delay to July 31st
This would mean its basically 50/50 on who controls IL redistricting as it goes to a coint oss

[Torie]

I'm trying my hand at a fair map presently and have a couple of questions:

1. Should I try to prioritize city lines or township lines, or both? Which should take precedence?

2. Considering the loss of a district and the decline in population in Chicago, you sort of have to lose one of the Black majority districts, and because of geography it seems like the 7th is the obvious choice. The trouble is is that the 1st thus ends up overpacked with the Black community and needs to be unpacked to give Black voters to make the 7th a coalition district. Is it better to send the 1st to SW Cook or to the North Side?

City lines in Illinois often seem to be an erose mess (granted some might be villages, assuming Illinois has those iterations of municipal corporations), and the precinct lines often do not dovetail.  What I do is respect "real" city lines like Chicago and Evanston, but in general focus on townships, with their nice beautiful straight lines as to which the precinct lines do dovetail.

[Sol]

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1354523379836071936
Due to the Census Data Delay to July 31st
This would mean its basically 50/50 on who controls IL redistricting as it goes to a coint oss

I guess a bipartisan commission probably means something close to the status quo? Maybe throw Underwood to the wolves?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1354523379836071936
Due to the Census Data Delay to July 31st
This would mean its basically 50/50 on who controls IL redistricting as it goes to a coint oss

I guess a bipartisan commission probably means something close to the status quo? Maybe throw Underwood to the wolves?

Nope what has happened so far the previous 2 times was a deadlock and it went to a coin toss for the tiebreaker. The GOP won both times and got to mostly  draw a favorable map to them. Although yes thats what I would guess happens with an actual bipartisan map. One Chicagoland D gets cut and Bustos maybe gets shored up with Champaign or something.

[Sol]

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1354523379836071936
Due to the Census Data Delay to July 31st
This would mean its basically 50/50 on who controls IL redistricting as it goes to a coint oss

I guess a bipartisan commission probably means something close to the status quo? Maybe throw Underwood to the wolves?

Nope what has happened so far the previous 2 times was a deadlock and it went to a coin toss for the tiebreaker. The GOP won both times and got to mostly  draw a favorable map to them. Although yes thats what I would guess happens with an actual bipartisan map. One Chicagoland D gets cut and Bustos maybe gets shored up with Champaign or something.

Lol that seems like the worst possible way to draw a map

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Democrats better find a way out of this and fast

[lfromnj]

Nvm, reading through the constitution, seems that it only applies for legislative districts. Sorry about that.

[Roll Roons]

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats better find a way out of this and fast

Don’t they have the votes to amend the state constitution?

If not, one way out of this would be to use population estimates (and try to stay within the allowable deviation) to draw the districts.

[Gracile]

Democrats better find a way out of this and fast

Don’t they have the votes to amend the state constitution?

If not, one way out of this would be to use population estimates (and try to stay within the allowable deviation) to draw the districts.

They have supermajorities in both chambers, so theoretically yes, they could amend the state constitution.

[lfromnj]

Democrats better find a way out of this and fast

Don’t they have the votes to amend the state constitution?

If not, one way out of this would be to use population estimates (and try to stay within the allowable deviation) to draw the districts.

They have supermajorities in both chambers, so theoretically yes, they could amend the state constitution.

Doesn't that require a ballot measure in the end (Fair tax) anyway this is mostly moot.

[Torie]

As to a lacking congressional map, a lawsuit was filed after the 1990 census, on June 27, 1991. So it was as if the deadline for legislative seat drawing was used as a marker as a deadline for a Congressional map. However, due to the late census data, the courts this time might give the legislature more time to get the job done. In addition, then there was a partisan division of control, which is not the case now, so it is not as if as was the case then, there was an expectation that a map would never be passed by the legislature and signed off by the governor in time to hold a an election under the new lines. So I think one can expect as to the Congressional map, the Illinois Dems will be able to do their slice and dice evisceration of the Pubs to the extent feasible without mercy.

https://www.ilga.gov/commission/lru/28.RedistrictingSince1970.pdf

https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/FSupp/777/634/2259862/

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats better find a way out of this and fast

Don’t they have the votes to amend the state constitution?

If not, one way out of this would be to use population estimates (and try to stay within the allowable deviation) to draw the districts.

They have supermajorities in both chambers, so theoretically yes, they could amend the state constitution.

Doesn't that require a ballot measure in the end (Fair tax) anyway this is mostly moot.

It’s moot for the congressional lines, but may not be for the legislative ones.

[Roll Roons]

Here is my IL State Senate Map. 39 Clinton districts - 20 Trump districts.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5bdd4980-2bbd-43b6-88c4-4f25c7373091

The Chicago suburbs are much more amenable to downballot Republicans than they are to Trump, so I could even see them winning a couple of those Clinton seats. Especially in 2022.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1354523379836071936
Due to the Census Data Delay to July 31st
This would mean its basically 50/50 on who controls IL redistricting as it goes to a coint oss

Nothing says they have to use 2020 data.

[Torie]

"Nothing says they have to use 2020 data."

Except the US Constitution as interpreted.

[Gass3268]

"Nothing says they have to use 2020 data."

Except the US Constitution as interpreted.

Then what data can they use if they don't have the 2020 data ready? They have to meet the deadline. Their game plan should be to use 2010 data to get around this pesky state constitutional deadline. They know they'll get sued, but they can at least drag it out past the release of the 2020 data, when then they can agree to update the maps with the new data.

[Torie]

"Nothing says they have to use 2020 data."

Except the US Constitution as interpreted.

Then what data can they use if they don't have the 2020 data ready? They have to meet the deadline. Their game plan should be to use 2010 data to get around this pesky state constitutional deadline. They know they'll get sued, but they can at least drag it out past the release of the 2020 data, when then they can agree to update the maps with the new data.

Well that is a plan, unless the courts take over drawing the lines, and freeze them out.

[Gass3268]

"Nothing says they have to use 2020 data."

Except the US Constitution as interpreted.

Then what data can they use if they don't have the 2020 data ready? They have to meet the deadline. Their game plan should be to use 2010 data to get around this pesky state constitutional deadline. They know they'll get sued, but they can at least drag it out past the release of the 2020 data, when then they can agree to update the maps with the new data.

Well that is a plan, unless the courts take over drawing the lines, and freeze them out.

Illinois state courts wouldn't do that and the Federal courts are now very deferential to the states when it comes to drawing maps.

[Torie]

"Nothing says they have to use 2020 data."

Except the US Constitution as interpreted.

Then what data can they use if they don't have the 2020 data ready? They have to meet the deadline. Their game plan should be to use 2010 data to get around this pesky state constitutional deadline. They know they'll get sued, but they can at least drag it out past the release of the 2020 data, when then they can agree to update the maps with the new data.

Well that is a plan, unless the courts take over drawing the lines, and freeze them out.

Illinois state courts wouldn't do that and the Federal courts are now very deferential to the states when it comes to drawing maps.

OK, we shall see how it pans out. Nice chatting with you.

[Torie]

Just in case you think my Pubmanders are bad, here is Wasserman's contribution to the public square. Yes, you guessed it, it is not a Pubmander. Not sure where Muon2 is dumped.

[Brittain33]

Do you think you can get yourself quoted in an article about redistricting like you did 10 years ago with Pennsylvania and the octopus?

[Sol]

Just in case you think my Pubmanders are bad, here is Wasserman's contribution to the public square. Yes, you guessed it, it is not a Pubmander. Not sure where Muon2 is dumped.

How wasteful! You can easily slide Carbondale, Cairo, and Danville into the 13th (and make it thinner)--it can then become a seat which Clinton won by 10 points.

[Roll Roons]

IIRC muon's district was in the western suburbs, so my guess is that he's in either 6, 11 or 14.